The Tigers go bowling for the 5th consecutive season and 6th of the last 7. For a lot of programs, and in an age where 68 D-I teams (over half!) play in a bowl game, this maybe isn’t big news. But for a Missouri Tiger program that didn’t experience a bowl game for 13 consecutive seasons (1984-1996) and only three such games in the next 8 seasons, this consistency is a great thing to see. Once you’ve resided beneath the floor inside the cellar of anything resembling meaningful college football, playing beyond the regular season schedule just doesn’t get old…and it’s not something that should be taken for granted. There has been a lot of chatter and sour grapes from some about the Tigers getting screwed over by the bowl selection process (for the 3rd year in a row) but Mizzou’s not in a position to politely decline a bowl invite because it’s beneath them or to ‘make a statement’ (and lately, you’re not either, Notre Dame, just saying).

The Texas Bowl will never be confused with the Orange Bowl or anything of similar ilk, but really once you get past about the top 8-10 bowl games, the name of the game means less than the opponent you draw and location for the fans who travel. In this respect, I think Mizzou got a pretty good draw. The opportunity to play one of the service academies is kind of cool and playing in the state of Texas, an area the Tigers recruit heavily doesn’t hurt. From a strategic standpoint, I find this game very interesting. You have the balanced spread attack of the Tigers and the intricate option ground-game for the Midshipmen. Let’s take a gander.

Navy is a run-first team. You could easily argue they’re a run-ONLY team. They average 272 yards on the ground per game, good for 4th in the nation. Their passing offense is dead last in D-I at a measly 71 yards per game. So you know Navy will run the ball. Then run some more. Then when you think you have them in a passing situation, they’ll still run. They run the ball on 89% of their offensive snaps (tops in the nation), average almost 58 attempts a game (2nd most) and have accumulated 40 TDs on the ground (3rd). They “only” average 4.7 yards per carry (24th). Navy’s offense starts (and generally ends) with Jr QB Ricky Dobbs. His decision-making in executing this offense has been nearly flawless this season. He’s run the ball 285 times for 1,026 yards (3.6ypc) and a D-I QB record 24 TDs. From a passing standpoint he has an adequate arm though both accuracy and the ability of his WRs are issues. In the limited times I’ve watched Navy play, I’ve seen him miss wide open receivers on numerous occasions and seen his intended targets drop easy completions. He’s completed just under 53% of his attempts this year but he’s only put the ball up 91 times. He’s thrown 5 TDs against 3 picks and averages just shy of 10 yards per completion. This is an impressive number but given how small the sample size is (7.6 attempts per game), it’s kind of misleading. It tells me that they use the element of surprise in the passing game to go after big chunks of yardage…which is supported by the 19.2 yards per completed pass. Dobb’s first option in running the Navy offense is to generally to give the ball to Jr FB Vince Murray up the middle. Murray has carried the ball 172 times for 925 yards (5.4ypc) and found the end zone 6 times. Murray is undersized for a fullback (6’1” 217 lb), as are most of the Mids based on the position they play. Most of his work is done between the tackles so it’s up to the Tiger DTs to stay upright and fend off the Navy cut-blocks and middle LB Will Ebner to make sure Murray is defended, first and foremost. They have to make sure Murray is accounted for (see: HIT HARD) every time he runs or fakes up the middle. Every time. When Dobbs pulls the ball away from Murray and proceeds down the line, he has the option to pitch it to any of three slot-backs that are likely to see action. Soph Marcus Curry (68/476/7.0/4) is their most potent weapon on the pitch and he’s also as “big play” as it gets from a receiving standpoint for the Mids (5 receptions, 190 yards, 38 ypr, 3 TDs). Sr Bobby Doyle (21/114/5.4/0) and reserve Fr Gee Gee Greene (37/224/6.1/0) will both likely see some touches out of the slotback position. However, as evidenced by the distribution of carries, Dobbs keeps the ball more often than not so it’s imperative that the Missouri defense play their assignment and account for their responsibility. Against an opponent like this, the second you have a mental lapse, try to improvise, or “guess”, you will get burnt. Dobbs is very skilled at running this offense and it will, in my estimation, be more mentally taxing to defend it than physically difficult. Mizzou has a distinct size and speed advantage across the board but Navy won’t beat themselves. They take the risk out of their offensive game-plan by keeping the ball on the ground and relying on Dobbs to run the offense. And, more times often than not, he holds onto it himself to avoid a fumbled exchange to the fullback or errant pitch. Navy has lost only 8 fumbles on their 753 rushing attempts on the year. By comparison, Mizzou has lost 7 fumbles on 300 fewer carries. They take excellent care of the football. Their 12 total turnovers lost are 6th fewest in the nation and their turnover margin is in the top 20. Navy’s O-Line averages less than 265 lb per man and they’re all between 6’1” and 6’4” – most definitely on the small side. What they lack in brawn they try to make up for in brains and scheme, utilizing cut-blocks and precision-timing to open running lanes for Dobbs & Co. *BREAKING NEWS*: Navy’s starting center, Eric Douglass, has been ruled academically ineligible for the bowl game and will be replaced by Brady DeMell. Douglass has started the last four games at C and DeMell has started one game this year and played in all 13.

Here’s how you can expect this one to play out when Navy has the ball. They want to control the ball and the clock and limit the possessions their opponents get. Their option attack isn’t designed to get huge chunks of yardage, but to just chip away and lull the defense into a mental mistake and take opportunistic shots downfield. This will be all about the discipline of the Missouri defenders, particularly the guys assigned to Dobbs and the pitch-man. They have to play their responsibility and not simply fly to the ball which is a departure from their normal defensive philosophy. Navy doesn’t protect Dobbs very well when they do pass, and it will be critical for the Tigers to make their presence felt in such situations from a pass-rush standpoint. With all the attention devoted to the run, I think you might see man-to-man pass coverage with maybe only one safety (if that) so the Tiger corners need to stick with their guy and not get tempted to come up in run support. As soon as you come up, Dobbs will float one over the top for a big gainer. This is crucial. Mizzou needs to be very smart and physical on the defensive side of the ball. The great thing for the Tigers is that they carry the 12th best rush defense in the country (96 yards per game) into this contest and shut down another phenomenal ground attack earlier this year in their win over Nevada. In that game, the Tigers held the Wolfpack to 218 yards on the ground, which is about 160 yards less than their average in their other 11 regular season games. I think Mizzou can and will control Navy on the ground, relatively speaking. Anything under about 200 yards allowed is definitely a WIN for the Tigers. If Dobbs has to drop back and pass 20 times this game, Mizzou will have this one well in hand.

On defense, Navy runs a 3-4 base with a rover, two corners and a free-safety. They bring a pretty stout run defense into the bowl game as well, allowing just under 127 yards per game, good for 38th nationally. Mizzou’s ground attack is slightly below average, statistically but it has picked up considerably recently as Blaine Gabbert’s ankle has healed, allowing him to pitch in. Navy has faced several potent ground games and some of the country’s top individual rushers so don’t expect Gabbert’s running ability or the trio of Derrick Washington, De’Vion Moore and Kendial Lawrence to strike fear in the hearts of the Mids. However, Navy is just small across the board and I am just not seeing how the Tigers don’t have ground success against these guys. The only reason they might not have a big statistical game on the ground is because they pass for a ton of yards. Just my take. Navy allows 207 yards through the air (48th nationally) and this is the area I think the Tigers will find the most success. From a personnel standpoint, their two leading tacklers are Sr ILBs Ross Pospisil and Tony Haberer. Both are Texas boys returning to their home state for their final collegiate football game. Identifying sack leaders for Navy’s defense is pointless as they rank in the bottom 20 for this stat nationally with a paltry 1.38 sacks/game but Soph DE Jabaree Tuani is a name to pay attention to as he is the team leader in that category with 3.5. In tackles for loss, they are dead last in the nation. Bottom line, if Navy gives Blaine time in the pocket, he will absolutely eat them alive, I don’t care how many defenders are in pass coverage…because he could tuck it and rip off 12-15 yard runs all game long against a 3 man front. Navy Sr OLB Ram Vela, though significantly undersized at 5’9” 197 lb, makes a lot of plays for the Mids and Jr Rover Wyatt Middleton always seems to be in the thick of things. Those are two names to watch out for. Another Midshipman who will draw a tough, tough assignment on Thursday will be Jr CB Kevin Edwards who will likely be assigned the unenviable duty of defending one of the nation’s elite receivers, Mizzou’s record-setting wideout, Danario Alexander. Edwards has good size for a corner at 6’2” 180 lb but can he keep up with the Tiger stud? It’s been a tough task for some of the better defenders in the Big XII this season and something tells me Danario is primed for another monster day as he plays his final game as a Tiger in his home state.

I think if Mizzou just simply “does their thing” and doesn’t get too one-dimensional early in the game, they should be able to execute their offense against Navy. After seeing the numbers that some other QBs put up on this Navy defense, I have no reason to think Blaine Gabbert shouldn’t approach or surpass 300 yards through the air.

On special teams, Navy is brutal on kickoff returns and pretty bad returning punts. Both teams have pretty good punters. Mizzou has a clear edge in any FG kicking conversation.

I want to give Navy the proper respect and consideration based on the unique offense they’re bringing to the table in the bowl game but I think the Tigers will be playing with somewhat of a chip on their shoulder and in tune with their assignments. I think it’s reasonable to believe that Navy is more excited to be in Houston playing in the Texas Bowl than Mizzou and that intangible may factor in, make the Tigers complacent or unmotivated, what have you…but I’m just not buying it will overcome the obvious talent disparity. I think the talent wins out in this one. I realize Navy beat Notre Dame who has a very potent offense…but the Irish run D is atrocious. I don’t think the Tigers will be caught underestimating this opponent like they might have done against Baylor earlier in the season and Northwestern in last season’s Alamo Bowl. If the Tigers play their assignments consistently, they will win this one handily. I’m calling it 41-14 Mizzou to get to 9-4 on the season. Happy New Year Tiger Fans!

TIDBITS TO HELP YOU DOMINATE WATERCOOLER CONVERSATION SHOULD YOU BE ONE OF THE UNFORTUNATE SOULS THAT HAS TO WORK NEW YEAR’S EVE.

Navy doesn’t have a receiver that has caught 10 passes this season. Mizzou has 5 with over 20 and Danario Alexander himself, has caught 10 or more 5 times this season including the last four games…

Navy is 2-0 in the state of Texas this year with wins over Rice in Houston and SMU in Dallas. Mizzou didn’t play in Texas in the regular season and went 0-2 against the two Texas schools they played.

This would be only the third time in school history a Navy team has won 10 games in a season if they pull off the upset.