And it begins...again

A look back at my prediction for the 2008 Missouri/Illinois football game...

Illinois
8/30/08

FINALLY!!! What a long off-season, I’m extremely excited that CFB is back this weekend, especially for the Missouri Tigers, coming off their most prolific season to date! The first test comes from our neighbors to the East…

Even though IL is a top 20 team in most polls, and generally an on-the-rise, respected program amongst football circles, this would be an ENORMOUS disappointment if Mizzou lost this game. Last year, at this time, Mizzou fans were cautiously optimistic about the team and their lofty expectations…this year, the secret is out. Mizzou will be marked from the get-go. They have to prepare and play like “the hunted” because they will get every team’s best shot this year. Vegas should favor the Tigers in all but perhaps the Texas game. Truly this is an exciting time for Mizzou, its athletic department, alumni and fans

2007 Recap…
I was a lot more apprehensive about the Football Braggin’ Rights game last year. With that 2006 IL defense coming back, their O-Line and Mendenhall returning, I wasn’t convinced Mizzou could control their running game, and hence “the” game…leading me to believe that IL could (potentially) hold the ball for 40 minutes, shorten the game and upset Mizzou. Well, that didn’t exactly happen. Mizzou sprinted to a 23-6 halftime lead and held on, by virtue of 5 IL turnovers, to a 40-34 victory. IL rushed for just under 120 yards, which was a “W” for the Tiger defense. However, backup IL QB Eddie McGee threw for 250+ yards and IL actually generated more total offense than the Tigers. This game also served as a coming out party for Jeremy Maclin as he caught a TD pass and returned a punt for a score in a span of 4 minutes in the 3rd quarter, effectively putting the game out of reach.

This season, Mendenhall is gone, their All Big 10 midlde LB (Leman) is gone. They just lost their best DL for the Mizzou game and they’re working in 2 OL with limited experience. Not that Mizzou’s without their personnel changes as the Tigers replace two starters on their O-Line that had 40+ starts each, a two-time 1,000 yard rusher and two NFL receiving targets (Rucker and Franklin). The Mizzou defense returns 10 starters and studs at each level: All-American candidate William Moore at S, Sean Witherspoon at LB and Ziggy Hood on the DL. It’s not a reach for Mizzou to have a top 25 defense this year to complement that top 10 offense.

So, without further delay, here are the keys to victory. Yes, some are obvious.

1) Control the IL running game – IL was the 5th best rushing team in the nation in terms of YPG. Then again, Arkansas was #4 – neither team got much of a ground game going against the Tigers. Take IL out of their comfort zone by stuffing the run, especially on 1st down, and make them beat you with the pass. Even though the word is that Juice is maturing as a passer, I’ll have to see it to believe it. They’re opening the season with a “by committee” approach at RB and expect 4 guys to carry the rock for the Illini. Juice ran for nearly 60/game last year so he’ll carry some as well. Fill the box and creep Willy Mo up there to clean up the mess.
2) Protect our guy – Chase Daniel is unbelievable in this offense when he has time. That might be the reason Mizzou took two losses to OU last season – their front 4 were able to get to CD without bringing a blitzer. I don’t think the IL DL is on par with the 2007 OU unit. Chase welcomes the blitz because that means some throwing lanes open up and one less guy to tackle our playmakers downfield. If the OL, with two brand new starters, can give him enough time to make his reads and find his target, forget about it. Mark him down for 300+ yards and 3-4 TDs. Very interested to see a) how the snaps go from Barnes to CD and b) how LT Elvis Fisher does against the IL DEs.
3) Get D-Wash going – Mizzou will open with sophomore Derrick Washington as the feature back and he’s got rather big shoes to fill as Tony Temple departs after back to back 1,000 yard seasons. D-Wash had some solid moments as a freshman and has looked good in the Spring game and Fall Camp. He will have a lot of help from Jimmy Jackson, who had a nose for the end zone last year as a change of pace to Temple and DeVion Moore will see his first live game action after redshirting last season. With two new OL and no Temple, establishing a running game that opponents have to respect is critical to this team’s success. I think Derrick Washington is a name we’ll remember as Mizzou fans for a long, long time.
4) When life hands you lemons… - one of the most memorable moments of the 2007 season was the Cotton Bowl destruction of Arkansas when Mizzou and their high-octane passing attack ran the ball 43 times for 320+ yards and 4 TDs. Mizzou has to take what the opposing defense is giving them. With all the offensive weapons on the receiving end and with the talent Daniel has, it would be easy to just set up and throw the ball 50x a game and take your chances…but I think Pinkel has evolved as a coach and is more astute at making appropriate in-game adjustments that we didn’t see in the past. The “Yeah, but he’s still Pinkel” argument doesn’t really hold water anymore.
5) Find Benn – Arrelious Benn is their Maclin-type player. They want to get him a lot of touches. He probably doesn’t have J-Mac talent (who does?) but he’s their key playmaker and is quite a load to take down. Mizzou needs to keep a close eye on him in all phases of the game and limit the damage when he has the ball.

In summary, there is only, perhaps, one team on the schedule that has the talent that Mizzou is carrying this year...and it isn’t Illinois. If Mizzou avoids critical mistakes and plays their game, this is a 2TD win at minimum.

Fun facts:
Mizzou was 2nd in the nation in 3rd down conversion % at 53% behind Florida.

NOBODY in the nation converted more 3rd downs than Mizzou did (107).

NOBODY in the nation made more first downs than Mizzou did (378 or 27/game)

Mizzou was 4th in the nation in red zone scoring % at 91%. Only 6 times did they cross the 20 and not put points on the board.

On the other side of it, the Mizzou defense ranked 15th in the nation in red zone scoring allowed at under 74%.

Wolfert was 15/15 in conference FG attempts and 21/25 overall.


Prediction:
Mizzou 41
Illinois 19