- Amazing that the Tigers survived a 9+ minute stretch without a made field goal and still won
- Mizzou’s FT% is better than it’s been for a long, long time but it still feels like we miss the front end of a 1-and-1 way too much
-
I continue to be amazed how Mizzou can just seemingly “flip the switch” and take their normal pressure D to an even higher level.- Tiger frontcourt had a nice day at the office vs the K-State bigs: Scoring margin +11; Rebounding deficit at only -3 and perhaps the stat of the game: Mizzou forwards committed 13 fewer fouls than their KSU counterparts
- Laurence “Larry” Bowers is one of the most entertaining/exciting players of recent memory for the Tigers
- Denmon is showing how deadly of a shooter he can be, perhaps that knee issue affected him more than he let on a season ago – he’s already canned more 3s this season than all of last
- I still can’t believe how animated Coach Frank Martin got on the bench, seems like his chili runs pretty hot (understatement?) Is he the Bo Pelini of Big XII hoops coaches?
Looking ahead…
The Tigers roll into Lubbock,Texas Wednesday night riding an 8-game winning streak. The Tigers haven’t won in Lubbock since February 15, 2000 and, in fact, the home team has won 10 of the 13 games in this series played at the respective campuses. A season ago, Mizzou beat Tech in Columbia by 11 and then blew them out in the quarterfinals of the Big XII tournament in Dallas. The Tiger are 0-2 in true road games this season and haven’t had a road win since their trip to Colorado late last February. They have, however, won two neutral site games over Old Dominion and Illinois, both ranked in the RPI top 100. Big XII teams, thus far on the season, are 112-1 on their home floor (through Monday’s OU/OSU game). Needless to say, this will be a very challenging game for the Tigers, as will all of their road contests.
One of the first things people want to know about Tiger opponents is if they can keep up with the “Fastest 40 Minutes of Basketball” style that Coach Mike Anderson has installed in Columbia. To do this, you need a mentally-tough team with skilled guards, big men that can handle the basketball and superior physical conditioning. It also helps tremendously if you can go beyond 8-deep. The Red Raiders play at an up-tempo pace like the Tigers. They like to keep things moving and don’t waste a lot of movement dribbling and playing a one-on-one game. They have played three teams that rank in the top 25 in terms of tempo, according to http://www.kenpom.com/, Washington, Northwestern State and South Dakota and won each of those contests. Their three biggest victories were the overtime triumph over Washington, a 13 pout win over Stanford and a close victory over an improving UTEP team earlier this month. Two of their three losses have been of the blowout variety, losing at New Mexico by 15 and getting hammered by 29 at Oklahoma State to open conference play. The Red Raiders haven’t played a team that plays defense like Missouri and, based on forced turnover percentage, there’s no team better in the country. Some comparables for Tech would be their games with Stephen F Austin and UTEP who each force turnovers on over 23% of their opponents possessions (Mizzou: 29.7%). In those games, both wins for the Raiders, they turned the ball over an average of 13 times.
Even though Bobby Knight has been gone for a couple of years and his son, Coach Pat Knight, is at the helm, the General’s fingerprints are still all over this program especially
with the style they play. They are fundamentally sound and disciplined, above-average passers and tough on defense. They don’t rely on the 3-pointer like so many teams do these days and they are good from the free-throw line, getting 26% of their offense from the stripe. The Red Raiders might not have the best athletes in the conference but they are disciplined and work hard to get good shots. Tech has won 65% of their conference home games over the last 5 seasons and in that same time, Mizzou has struggled on the road, winning only 27.5% of their contests. Something of particular note for Mizzou fans is that Kansas has lost their last three road games in Lubbock so while it might not quite be Cameron Indoor, Tech is definitely a little better at home, as are most teams.
Texas Tech really has two go-to guys, Jr F Mike Singletary (15.6ppg/5.9rpg/2.1apg) and Jr PG John Roberson (13.0ppg/5.5apg/1.7spg). One of these two have led them in scoring in 10 of their 15 games and if one is having a bad night, it could spell disaster for Tech because they just don’t have a lot of offensive weapons beyond that. Coach Knight plays these two a ton of minutes, especially in close games. Roberson has logged 35+ minutes in 11 games this season and 40+ in four. This early-season workload obviously takes a toll on anybody but especially a PG charged with navigating the Missouri Tiger press 70 times a game. His
conditioning/fatigue factor is something to keep an eye on. Roberson shoots as many 3s as 2s and converts the deep ball at an adequate rate of 37.5%. Singletary has seen a bump in his scoring from his sophomore season mainly due to his improved shooting and increased shots per game with the departure of graduated Tech guard Alan Voskuil. He is also the team’s second leading rebounder and will draw a lot of fouls. As these two go, so go the Red Raiders. I expect each to play nearly the whole game. The third scoring weapon, Jr G David Tairu (12.1ppg/3.4rpg/51.9% 3P), has been coming off the bench to give Coach Knight’s team a boost. He’s the team’s best shooter from deep although Tech only launches 13 treys a game, by far the fewest in the conference. Couple that with their mediocre-at-best conversion percentage from 3-point land, and it’s clear that Texas Tech is not built to mount a comeback when they’d need points in a hurry. Somebody would have to abnormally catch fire and that person could be Tairu. Perhaps the most athletic player for the Red Raiders is Jr F D’Walyn Roberts (8.1ppg/7.3rpg/1.3bpg). His game is in the paint and he leads the team in rebounds, blocks and dunks. He’s a 62% shooter from 2-point range but admittedly doesn’t shoot the ball a whole lot. In the middle, Tech starts Sr F Darko Cohadarevic (7.6ppg/5.1rpg). He plays about half the game and at 6’9” 242lbs, provides some size in the paint. He and Roberts combine for about 5 offensive boards per game. Sr G Nick Okorie (8.9ppg/2.1apg/1.4spg) is the starting guard opposite Roberson. He’s an adequate ball-handler but doesn’t have the upside of Tairu offensively. Reserve Jr Fs Brad Reese and Theron Jenkins round out the top 8 for Tech and Soph F Robert Lewandowski plays sparingly though he did lead Tech in scoring against Mizzou in Columbia last year with 16. Reese is the only one in the regular rotation who shoots less than 70% from the stripe and Jenkins grabs nearly 2.5 rebounds per game despite playing just over 11 minutes a contest. Reese has attempted the 2nd most 3s on the team, hitting only 25%.
I think you’ll see a good matchup of English on Singletary and it will be interesting to see if Kimmie can match his physical game without getting into foul trouble. Safford and Ramsey will start out on Roberts and Cohadarevic initially and they have to keep those two off the offensive glass. Tech is not a great shooting team but Mizzou certainly can’t afford to give them second and third chances, especially on the road. Tech is not a perimeter-oriented team in terms of reliance on the 3-pointer. They get less than 17% of their total offense from deep but where they really excel is getting to the line a lot and converting. As opposed to Kansas State
who gets to the line more than anybody in the nation but doesn’t shoot that well, Coach Knight’s team will make you pay the price for fouling. So even though the Tigers go 9-10 deep and should have plenty of fouls to give without losing production, if they get into the kind of game they did vs Kansas State where it was just whistle after whistle, it might be the kiss of death. Also like K-State, Tech commits their fair share of fouls so Mizzou has to convert those into points on the road. In terms of ball-handling, Tech has more turnovers than assists on the season and that tells me all I need to know. Roberson and Okorie are above average with the ball but most of the other guys are very turnover prone. They really only play three guards in their rotation and if they, for whatever reason, have to call on true Fr G Mike Davis, that is an indication of some big-time trouble.
Mizzou is one of the most defensively efficient teams in the nation, meaning teams score less on a per-possession basis than against most other teams. This increases the value of each possession for Tech on Wednesday night. I have no reason to believe Mizzou’s press will not work in this game unless they don’t get a chance to set it up by missing a ton of shots. As previously mentioned, 29.7% of their opponents’ possessions end up in turnovers and Mizzou contributes to that by stealing the ball 17.5% of the time. What that implies is “unforced errors” on the part of Tiger foes at a rate of 12.2% or about one out of every eight possessions. At a game played at Mizzou’s average tempo (roughly 74 possessions per game), that translates to 9 times when the offense throws the ball away,
travels, dribbles off their foot, gets a 5 second or backcourt violation…think about that for a minute and it kind of helps understand why Coach Frank Martin of Kansas State was shown numerous times going absolutely ballistic on the sidelines last Saturday. Who wouldn’t? When the announcers talk about Mizzou’s “cumulative pressure” during a Tiger broadcast (and when ESPN’s Steve Lavin does a game, you could make a drinking game out of this one phrase), this is exactly what they’re referring to. It’s not only physically exhausting but certainly mentally and emotionally as well. This is why Mizzou should have a chance to compete in every game, regardless of who their opponent is. Mizzou is able to defend with this kind of intensity and push the ball at every opportunity because of their deep, versatile bench. The Tigers have 10 players contributing 10+ minutes per contest and Coach Anderson makes no secret about the fact that he has “8 starters”. The Tiger bench logs the most minutes of any team in conference (41.2% of total minutes from players who did not start) and their bench contributes 45% to their overall scoring. Having talented guys like Marcus Denmon, Mike Dixon and Laurence Bowers coming off the bench has been invaluable for Coach Anderson and even role players like Miguel Paul and Steve Moore have really stepped up their contribution this season. This kind of balance serves as a great protection should one player get in foul trouble, come up with an injury or just have an off-night. The downside of that is that nobody has effectively stepped up as “the” go-to guy in crunch time of a “late and close” game. I think Kim English wants to be that guy and as the team’s leading scorer, I understand that. However great his skill and flair for the dramatic, I don’t think he’s displayed the basketball IQ and decision-making on a consistent basis to secure this role. I’ve been really impressed with Zaire Taylor, Marcus Denmon and Laurence Bowers of late but it’s really hard to prop up one of these guys without the rest since they really do play so well as a team. It will be interesting to see who has the ball in the waning seconds of a game when the Tigers have to make a shot to tie or win. I think it’s between English and Taylor at this time. Stay tuned.
To win this game, the Tigers need to keep Tech off the foul line and manage their emotions on the road. They will force turnovers and create opportunities in transition and I think the rebounding will be pretty even. There is no such thing as an ugly road win in the Big XII and getting out of anywhere with a “W” will be at a premium thi
s season. I am looking for JT Tiller to step up and guide the Tigers through this challenge. Tiller, as the only four-year player in the program, is unquestionably the leader on this team. He doesn’t have to fill up the stat sheet but he needs to play his typical stone-wall defense on Roberson and create opportunities for his teammates. Mizzou has a tremendous opportunity to start out conference play 2-0 and keep the momentum churning into the weekend tilt with the Sooners. I expect this one to be a very tight game throughout but, like we’ve seen so many times in the Anderson era, the Tiger pressure, depth, and balance will be too much for a thin Texas Tech squad. For the first time in nearly a decade, the Tigers win in Lubbock, 82-75.
TIDBITS TO HELP YOU DOMINATE WATERCOOLER CONVERSATION
- A win would make it 9 straight and tie Coach Anderson’s longest streak during his tenure at Mizzou
- Mizzou has 9 players with 19+ assists on the season
- Mizzou is 3-2 on Wednesdays this season and Tech has yet to play a Wednesday game
- Mizzou’s Taylor, English and Ramsey are 2nd, 3rd and 4th in steals per game in the Big XII and overall the Tigers have 7 players averaging over 1 steal per contest.
- Bowers is averaging 15ppg off the bench in his last four games
- Mizzou is outshooting their opponents by 118 on the season (7 attempts per game) – this goes a long way in explaining why Mizzou has a slight rebounding deficit. Since 2/3 of all rebounds typically go to the defense, more shots potentially creates more rebounds for the opposition (unless you make them)
M-I-Z…
Even though Bobby Knight has been gone for a couple of years and his son, Coach Pat Knight, is at the helm, the General’s fingerprints are still all over this program especially
with the style they play. They are fundamentally sound and disciplined, above-average passers and tough on defense. They don’t rely on the 3-pointer like so many teams do these days and they are good from the free-throw line, getting 26% of their offense from the stripe. The Red Raiders might not have the best athletes in the conference but they are disciplined and work hard to get good shots. Tech has won 65% of their conference home games over the last 5 seasons and in that same time, Mizzou has struggled on the road, winning only 27.5% of their contests. Something of particular note for Mizzou fans is that Kansas has lost their last three road games in Lubbock so while it might not quite be Cameron Indoor, Tech is definitely a little better at home, as are most teams.Texas Tech really has two go-to guys, Jr F Mike Singletary (15.6ppg/5.9rpg/2.1apg) and Jr PG John Roberson (13.0ppg/5.5apg/1.7spg). One of these two have led them in scoring in 10 of their 15 games and if one is having a bad night, it could spell disaster for Tech because they just don’t have a lot of offensive weapons beyond that. Coach Knight plays these two a ton of minutes, especially in close games. Roberson has logged 35+ minutes in 11 games this season and 40+ in four. This early-season workload obviously takes a toll on anybody but especially a PG charged with navigating the Missouri Tiger press 70 times a game. His
conditioning/fatigue factor is something to keep an eye on. Roberson shoots as many 3s as 2s and converts the deep ball at an adequate rate of 37.5%. Singletary has seen a bump in his scoring from his sophomore season mainly due to his improved shooting and increased shots per game with the departure of graduated Tech guard Alan Voskuil. He is also the team’s second leading rebounder and will draw a lot of fouls. As these two go, so go the Red Raiders. I expect each to play nearly the whole game. The third scoring weapon, Jr G David Tairu (12.1ppg/3.4rpg/51.9% 3P), has been coming off the bench to give Coach Knight’s team a boost. He’s the team’s best shooter from deep although Tech only launches 13 treys a game, by far the fewest in the conference. Couple that with their mediocre-at-best conversion percentage from 3-point land, and it’s clear that Texas Tech is not built to mount a comeback when they’d need points in a hurry. Somebody would have to abnormally catch fire and that person could be Tairu. Perhaps the most athletic player for the Red Raiders is Jr F D’Walyn Roberts (8.1ppg/7.3rpg/1.3bpg). His game is in the paint and he leads the team in rebounds, blocks and dunks. He’s a 62% shooter from 2-point range but admittedly doesn’t shoot the ball a whole lot. In the middle, Tech starts Sr F Darko Cohadarevic (7.6ppg/5.1rpg). He plays about half the game and at 6’9” 242lbs, provides some size in the paint. He and Roberts combine for about 5 offensive boards per game. Sr G Nick Okorie (8.9ppg/2.1apg/1.4spg) is the starting guard opposite Roberson. He’s an adequate ball-handler but doesn’t have the upside of Tairu offensively. Reserve Jr Fs Brad Reese and Theron Jenkins round out the top 8 for Tech and Soph F Robert Lewandowski plays sparingly though he did lead Tech in scoring against Mizzou in Columbia last year with 16. Reese is the only one in the regular rotation who shoots less than 70% from the stripe and Jenkins grabs nearly 2.5 rebounds per game despite playing just over 11 minutes a contest. Reese has attempted the 2nd most 3s on the team, hitting only 25%.I think you’ll see a good matchup of English on Singletary and it will be interesting to see if Kimmie can match his physical game without getting into foul trouble. Safford and Ramsey will start out on Roberts and Cohadarevic initially and they have to keep those two off the offensive glass. Tech is not a great shooting team but Mizzou certainly can’t afford to give them second and third chances, especially on the road. Tech is not a perimeter-oriented team in terms of reliance on the 3-pointer. They get less than 17% of their total offense from deep but where they really excel is getting to the line a lot and converting. As opposed to Kansas State
who gets to the line more than anybody in the nation but doesn’t shoot that well, Coach Knight’s team will make you pay the price for fouling. So even though the Tigers go 9-10 deep and should have plenty of fouls to give without losing production, if they get into the kind of game they did vs Kansas State where it was just whistle after whistle, it might be the kiss of death. Also like K-State, Tech commits their fair share of fouls so Mizzou has to convert those into points on the road. In terms of ball-handling, Tech has more turnovers than assists on the season and that tells me all I need to know. Roberson and Okorie are above average with the ball but most of the other guys are very turnover prone. They really only play three guards in their rotation and if they, for whatever reason, have to call on true Fr G Mike Davis, that is an indication of some big-time trouble.Mizzou is one of the most defensively efficient teams in the nation, meaning teams score less on a per-possession basis than against most other teams. This increases the value of each possession for Tech on Wednesday night. I have no reason to believe Mizzou’s press will not work in this game unless they don’t get a chance to set it up by missing a ton of shots. As previously mentioned, 29.7% of their opponents’ possessions end up in turnovers and Mizzou contributes to that by stealing the ball 17.5% of the time. What that implies is “unforced errors” on the part of Tiger foes at a rate of 12.2% or about one out of every eight possessions. At a game played at Mizzou’s average tempo (roughly 74 possessions per game), that translates to 9 times when the offense throws the ball away,
travels, dribbles off their foot, gets a 5 second or backcourt violation…think about that for a minute and it kind of helps understand why Coach Frank Martin of Kansas State was shown numerous times going absolutely ballistic on the sidelines last Saturday. Who wouldn’t? When the announcers talk about Mizzou’s “cumulative pressure” during a Tiger broadcast (and when ESPN’s Steve Lavin does a game, you could make a drinking game out of this one phrase), this is exactly what they’re referring to. It’s not only physically exhausting but certainly mentally and emotionally as well. This is why Mizzou should have a chance to compete in every game, regardless of who their opponent is. Mizzou is able to defend with this kind of intensity and push the ball at every opportunity because of their deep, versatile bench. The Tigers have 10 players contributing 10+ minutes per contest and Coach Anderson makes no secret about the fact that he has “8 starters”. The Tiger bench logs the most minutes of any team in conference (41.2% of total minutes from players who did not start) and their bench contributes 45% to their overall scoring. Having talented guys like Marcus Denmon, Mike Dixon and Laurence Bowers coming off the bench has been invaluable for Coach Anderson and even role players like Miguel Paul and Steve Moore have really stepped up their contribution this season. This kind of balance serves as a great protection should one player get in foul trouble, come up with an injury or just have an off-night. The downside of that is that nobody has effectively stepped up as “the” go-to guy in crunch time of a “late and close” game. I think Kim English wants to be that guy and as the team’s leading scorer, I understand that. However great his skill and flair for the dramatic, I don’t think he’s displayed the basketball IQ and decision-making on a consistent basis to secure this role. I’ve been really impressed with Zaire Taylor, Marcus Denmon and Laurence Bowers of late but it’s really hard to prop up one of these guys without the rest since they really do play so well as a team. It will be interesting to see who has the ball in the waning seconds of a game when the Tigers have to make a shot to tie or win. I think it’s between English and Taylor at this time. Stay tuned.To win this game, the Tigers need to keep Tech off the foul line and manage their emotions on the road. They will force turnovers and create opportunities in transition and I think the rebounding will be pretty even. There is no such thing as an ugly road win in the Big XII and getting out of anywhere with a “W” will be at a premium thi
s season. I am looking for JT Tiller to step up and guide the Tigers through this challenge. Tiller, as the only four-year player in the program, is unquestionably the leader on this team. He doesn’t have to fill up the stat sheet but he needs to play his typical stone-wall defense on Roberson and create opportunities for his teammates. Mizzou has a tremendous opportunity to start out conference play 2-0 and keep the momentum churning into the weekend tilt with the Sooners. I expect this one to be a very tight game throughout but, like we’ve seen so many times in the Anderson era, the Tiger pressure, depth, and balance will be too much for a thin Texas Tech squad. For the first time in nearly a decade, the Tigers win in Lubbock, 82-75.TIDBITS TO HELP YOU DOMINATE WATERCOOLER CONVERSATION
- A win would make it 9 straight and tie Coach Anderson’s longest streak during his tenure at Mizzou
- Mizzou has 9 players with 19+ assists on the season
- Mizzou is 3-2 on Wednesdays this season and Tech has yet to play a Wednesday game
- Mizzou’s Taylor, English and Ramsey are 2nd, 3rd and 4th in steals per game in the Big XII and overall the Tigers have 7 players averaging over 1 steal per contest.
- Bowers is averaging 15ppg off the bench in his last four games
- Mizzou is outshooting their opponents by 118 on the season (7 attempts per game) – this goes a long way in explaining why Mizzou has a slight rebounding deficit. Since 2/3 of all rebounds typically go to the defense, more shots potentially creates more rebounds for the opposition (unless you make them)
M-I-Z…
No comments:
Post a Comment