Thoughts from the last few games…
- Marcus Denmon is ridiculous. It’s been great to watch him progress this year. He’s got a confident outside shot and has done really well of late taking the ball to the rim. It’s exciting to watch his development. I would, however, caution him from attempting another breakaway dunk.
- Kim English is a dynamic, dangerous player when he takes the ball to the basket and doesn’t settle for jumpers. His “Lord that was a terrible shot” tendency has decreased significantly of late. Plus, he might be THE one player on the roster that can absolutely take over a game if he gets hot…Denmon closing quickly.
- This is the JT Tiller we thought we’d see all year. He very nearly had Missouri’s first ever triple double against Colorado. Kind of bummed he didn’t get there. If he plays like this the rest of the year, the Tigers are a much better squad
- Keith Ramsey’s contribution on both ends cannot go unnoticed. He’s been a “right place, right time” guy of late with a flurry of offensive put-backs and seems to have placed an extra emphasis on rebounding with 25 boards in his past three games. He’s also blocked a pair of shots in each of the past three. Oh, and the guy plays the second most minutes on the team in conference games behind Zaire Taylor. “Keef” has been great!
- You can’t help but be impressed with the balance on this team. On any given night, any one of 6 or 7 guys can legitimately go for 20+ points and they really seem to be buying into the “playing together” philosophy at the right time.
- Tigers have balance not only in personnel but in the way they win. They beat Texas by dominating the free-throw competition; they blew out Nebraska and Colorado by shooting remarkably well, especially from deep. In all wins, they force turnovers and converted them into points. In those 3 wins, the Tigers enjoyed 65 points off of opponent turnovers.
- Mizzou is averaging 13 offensive rebounds in conference play and it seems that there are 3 or 4 per game that come at key times (see: Ramsey, Keith). This somewhat makes up for their relative weakness on the defensive glass.
- It seems Mizzou has placed a definite emphasis on their “inside-out” game. They don’t have traditional back-to-the-basket, low-post threats but they’re making the effort to get the ball in the paint, either by dribble-drives or passing, then kicking it out to the shooters. When Mizzou struggles, it’s normally because they become satisfied with the outside shots, miss a bunch, don’t get boards, can’t set the press and things snowball from there.
- The Tigers suffered a huge loss this week when Justin Safford tore his ACL early in the Colorado game. His loss won’t look tremendous statistically but the minutes and some of the intangibles are going to be tough to replace. Expect Larry Bowers to start, Steve Moore to see an increase in minutes and I think John Underwood will get a look off the bench once per half as that fourth big.
Looking ahead to Kansas State…
Mizzou was able to knock off the Wildcats in the conference opener this year in large part due to their forwards/center playing poorly and ours playing so well. To refresh, the frontcourt vs KSU bigs: Scoring margin +11; Rebounding deficit at only -3 and perhaps the stat of the game: Mizzou forwards committed 13 fewer fouls than their KSU counterparts. Also, the Wildcats only dished out 6 assists in that contest, their fewest total in a full year. Kansas State still gets to the foul line a ton, still doesn’t shoot terribly well when they get there. They are extremely strong on the offensive glass and shoot pretty well from the field. They are prone to turning the ball over and putting their opponents on the foul line as well. They are comfortable playing at Missouri’s pace. KSU has lost two conference home games (OSU and Kansas) by a combined 6 points. Reasons behind these home losses? The Wildcats shot 36% from the field vs OSU and Kansas beats everybody pretty much everywhere though KSU took the Jayhawks to overtime. My point is that they’re pretty stout at home and seem to either have to run into a premiere team (KU) or have an extremely off-night (OSU) if they’re going to lose. On the flip side, Nebraska gave them all they could handle last week in Manhattan so anything’s possible. Mark down a distinct home-court advantage for Kansas State on Saturday night.
There’s a lot at stake in this one. KSU has a legit chance at earning a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament with a stron finish in the regular season and the Big 12 tournament. They would likely have to beat KU at least once if not win the tournament. I think any loss to a team NOT named Kansas might eliminate them from consideration for that top-line. Winner of this one assumes second place in the conference standings and is likely a lock for a first round bye in the Big 12 tourney. A win guarantees a non-losing conference road record for Mizzou with one to play in Ames next week. K-State is also looking to cap off a perfect record in February which is obviously huge in the eyes of the NCAA seeding committee.
Personnel-wise, they are paced in the backcourt by senior G Denis Clemente and junior G Jacob Pullen. These guys are their two leading scorers (both top 10 in conference) and combined for 37 in Columbia but labored to do it – each guy missed 10 field goal attempts. They are basically the only two outside threats for KSU and each will pull it 7+ times from deep, well over half of their total attempts. They’re also the only two players that will make a free throw on a consistent basis. In my estimation, this is the best backcourt in the Big 12 with a shout-out to the boys in Baylor and that other team from the Sunflower state. Inside they start junior Fs Curtis Kelly and Dominique Sutton along with senior C Luis Colon. This has been their starting lineup for the duration of conference play. Colon is only averaging about 15 minutes and 3ppg – he is usually replaced by sophomore F Jamar Samuels as the game gets going. Samuels can give the Cats a double-double off the bench in any given game. Freshman G Rodney McGruder has emerged as the first guard off the bench for the Wildcats. He’s a plus defender whose offensive contribution, by all accounts, is just waiting for the opportunity to shine, but has not been necessary this year. He’s gone scoreless his last five games but averages 12ppg/7rpg in games where he plays 20+ minutes. So if he gets long stretches of clock, watch out. Another name off the bench is freshman F Wally Judge, who was AAU teammates with McGruder back in D.C. I get the sense that Coach Martin and the coaching staff was expecting more out of Judge in his freshman campaign and it would not surprise me at all if he had a big night against Mizzou.
How I see this one playing out…
The bottom line in this one will be rebounding. An undermanned Mizzou frontcourt, lacking one of their starting forwards, and is the worst defensive rebounding team in the conference, is pitted against one of the best offensive rebounding squads in the nation. Game, set, match. The only way I see the Tigers sneaking out of Manhattan with a win is if they have a phenomenal game on the glass or they shoot out of their minds and don’t create those rebounds. However, I don’t expect them to shoot well on the road in a hostile environment (and if you haven’t caught a KSU home-game this season, you’ve been missing one of the best home courts in the conference if not the country). See “tidbits” for what I think is an interesting stat on this… I believe the Mizzou guards will keep Pullen and Clemente from completely going off but I see Kansas State owning the paint on Saturday. Mizzou will force some turnovers and get their transition points but it’s not going to be enough. If, by some sheer stroke of luck, this turns into a free-throw shooting competition, I like the Tigers chances. I’ve thought this one was shaping up to be a loss for Mizzou all along and I’m now just trying to figure out the margin. I don’t think it’s going to be a terribly close contest but I certainly hope I’m way off on this. Official prediction: 82-70 Wildcats.
TIDBITS TO HELP YOU DOMINATE WATERCOOLER CONVERSATION AND GENERALLY LOOK SWEET AROUND LESS KNOWLEDGABLE SPORTS FANS…
- KSU is 6-1 in conference road games which is quite impressive. Guess where that one loss came.
- Mizzou is 21-8 in Big 12 play the last two seasons, second best in the league behind Kansas at 27-2.
- Tigers are on pace to break the Big 12 record for steals per game (11.2 currently vs Nebraska’s 10.9 figure during the ‘98-’99 season)
- Mizzou was 12-4 under the starting lineup of Tiller, Taylor, English, Ramsey and Safford. For the record, Tiller, Taylor, English, Ramsey and Bowers were the starters at Vanderbilt, a 6pt loss for the Tigers and the only time that bunch has started this season.
- Mizzou has won the “points in the paint” battle the last 6 games. In their 7 conference games prior to the current streak, they won it exactly once by a whopping two points.
- The CU victory marked the fourth time in conference play the Mizzou bench scored 40+; Tigers 7-0 in Big 12 games when their bench gets 30+.
- After starting out shooting 38% from the field in conference roadies, Mizzou has shot 47% in the last 3 games. 3 fewer made field goals on 46 fewer attempts. From deep, it’s a bump from 42% to 49%. I like, no LOVE, where this trend is going.
- Tigers winless in Manhattan since 2004, that’s 5 straight with an average margin of defeat at 19ppg. Yikes. Shot under 40% from the field in all but one of those.
- Justin Kutcher will provide the play-by-play for the ESPNU broadcast…no relation to Ashton.
M – I – Z…
Friday, February 26, 2010
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Texas (20-5, 6-4) at Missouri (18-7, 6-4)
Thoughts from the last game
· One of the glaring shortcomings of this team reared its ugly head at the absolutely worst time vs Baylor: REBOUNDING. They absolutely had to get a rebound on that late free throw and it just didn’t happen.
· Hate to point fingers but I thought the Tigers left a lot of points on the board with wide-open misses, particularly by Justin Safford early in the game.
· The formula for sneaking out a road W was there – keep it close, don’t do anything terribly stupid and give yourself a chance late in the game. Just didn’t make enough plays down the stretch.
Looking ahead at the Horns…
First and foremost Tiger fans, it’s the BLACKOUT game at Mizzou Arena. So if you’re headed to the game Wednesday evening, wear black…or do whatever you can to support the BLACKOUT theme…I’m not offering suggestions beyond that.
This is a huge game for both teams. The winner keeps pace with Texas A&M and Baylor at 7-4 and a three-way tie for 3rd place in the Big 12. In that respect, it’s especially big for Mizzou since they already dropped their games to the Aggies and Bears earlier. Texas split with those two earlier in conference play and has a game remaining with each down the stretch. The loser goes to 6-5 and has a fairly steep uphill battle to gain a first-round bye in the conference tournament, not to mention some work left to do to be a lock for the NCAA Tournament.
Take the recent slide after the Longhorns’ ascent to the nation’s top ranking and throw it out the window. I don’t care what the record says or what the pundits say about how they’re in a free-fall or they’re perhaps not as good as they appeared early-on…Texas is a very good basketball team. They have a lot of talent across the board, some great experienced players and some new faces with great energy. Aside from being the top scoring team in the conference, they match up with the Tigers better than almost anybody in terms of desired tempo. Texas likes to get out and run and they have the athletes to do it. They are the best rebounding squad in the conference which is an area Mizzou has struggled this year. They are very strong and deep in the middle. That point can’t be overemphasized. Their bench is almost as deep as Mizzou’s in terms of minutes played. They don’t rely on the three like many teams in the conference do but they convert well from behind the arc. The only area they struggle from a statistical standpoint is at the free throw line where they’re bottom of the Big 12 at a tepid 61%, including a rock-bottom 37% (from the stripe…seriously…10 for 27) during a nine-point loss to Oklahoma. To be fair, they’ve been over 73% the last two games. To be fairer still, they’re really just 51.2% in conference roadies on the season. This could be huge because Mizzou will have fouls to give against Texas.
Quick hitters on Texas’ personnel…
EXPECTED STARTERS
· Any conversation about Texas begins with senior G/F Damion James. He’s the conference’s 4th leading scorer (18.9) and leading rebounder (11.3). He’s also the Big 12’s all-time leader in rebounds (1,239) and double-doubles (50). He’s a physical presence who draws a lot of fouls. He’s going to get his.
· Senior C Dexter Pittman has seen a bit of a scoring slump in conference but still swatting 2 shots and ripping down 5 boards in under 20 minutes per game. He’s especially efficient on the offensive glass. The big question with him will always be his conditioning. They’ll mention on the broadcast no fewer than 11 times how much weight he lost from when he stepped on campus (nearly 80 lbs). That story is tied-for-first for ”Big 12 Conference Color Analyst Go-To Anecdote of the Year” with the cutesy tale of Kim English and his habit of sleeping in the locker room/practice facility. Nevertheless, the fewer minutes Pittman plays, the less damage he can do. Last year, he scored 25 points in 23 minutes against the Tigers. Expect Coach Anderson to find spots for Steve Moore to match up with Pittman and give Ramsey a break. Moore should foul liberally.
· Freshman G Avery Bradley might have an outside shot for Big 12 freshman of the year. He’s shooting 52.6% from the field including a blistering 53.5% behind the arc. He was 6 for 7 on Saturday from deep in the blowout of Nebraska. He’s horrible from the stripe (40%) but hardly ever gets there. He’s the second leading scorer for the Horns at 15.1 ppg. He’s the best (thus far) of the three highly touted freshmen for the Horns.
· Junior G Dogus Balbay takes good care of the ball, distributes it well (3.4apg) and plays solid perimeter defense. He’s not a shooter, nor any kind of legit, consistent offensive threat but he can bury the occasional three. For the record, I said the same thing about Cade Davis (OU) a few weeks back so naturally I expect Balbay to drop 18 on the Tigers Wednesday night.
· Freshman G J’Covan Brown scored 28 on Kansas last Monday filling in for an injured Justin Mason, which earned him a start over the weekend against Nebraska. In that one he turned in a 12 point/6 assist effort. Brown has experienced plenty of growing pains learning Coach Barnes’ system and getting out of his comfort zone. He is an explosive player offensively and it appears his defense is finally up to snuff to garner increased playing time. He’s great from the line as well.
BENCH
· Junior F Gary Johnson started one game (KU) and then made his way back to the bench where he has been rock solid for Barnes. He’s a very dangerous force in the middle and tough defensive matchup if Pittman and James are already on the floor. He chips in 10ppg/7rpg and would start on most teams in the conference.
· Freshman F Jordan Hamilton was another player slow on the uptake with Barnes’ philosophy. He’s not afraid to fire it up and poor shot selection was the target of his coach’s criticism. Seems things have started to turn for him, like Brown, with the buy-in on defense. He’s got good range.
· Senior G Justin Mason is a four year starter for UT who went down with a left ankle injury in practice last week. He had been moved to the bench for the Kansas game, presumably to allow Johnson to start to better match up with KU’s size. Mason is questionable for Missouri game. At full strength, he’s a solid defender but offensively anemic – his scoring average has dropped each season. He’s the worst FT shooter on the team. Barnes has said when Mason and Balbay are on the floor, Texas is playing “3 versus 5”.
· Junior G Jai Lucas is in his first season with UT after transferring from Florida where he had started a full season as a freshman. Now he’s the 5th or 6th option at guard but hey, he’s closer to home. Lucas has PG pedigree but hasn’t really been given the keys to run the show yet. He’s only behind Balbay in most assists per 40 minutes.
Having established that Texas is the second coming, how do the Tigers beat them? First, playing this game at home is a huge advantage. This is the biggest home game to this point and I think the crowd will respond and support accordingly. Texas’s home/road splits, especially in conference games, are meaningful. Same with the Tigers. I expect the Tigers to get out-rebounded by Texas because that is just what they do. Realistically, Mizzou isn’t going to stifle both James and Pittman but they have to limit the damage. The Tigers can absorb one guy with a big night (see: James Anderson/OSU) but if two or more guys go off, that could spell trouble. They’re outmatched inside but should be able to slow the Texas guards on the perimeter. Help defense will be key and getting to the 50/50 balls is huge. Mizzou has to turn Texas over and convert into transition buckets. With Mason potentially out, the depth at guard shrinks a little and this could play in Missouri’s favor. Can Texas put the ball into the hands of two freshmen and get a win on the road? That is the big question. I say no. Calling this one 80-76 Tigers.
TIDBITS TO HELP YOU DOMINATE WATERCOOLER CONVERSATION
· Texas has a player on their roster named Andrew Dick – no word on if it’s the same guy from Old School.
· Texas hasn’t scored in the 80s in conference play but have allowed exactly 80 three times…all Longhorn losses.
· Longhorns 5-0 in Big 12 play when shooting over 42% from the floor
· Texas has trailed at halftime in 8 of their 10 conference games and have come back to win six of those 8.
· One of the glaring shortcomings of this team reared its ugly head at the absolutely worst time vs Baylor: REBOUNDING. They absolutely had to get a rebound on that late free throw and it just didn’t happen.
· Hate to point fingers but I thought the Tigers left a lot of points on the board with wide-open misses, particularly by Justin Safford early in the game.
· The formula for sneaking out a road W was there – keep it close, don’t do anything terribly stupid and give yourself a chance late in the game. Just didn’t make enough plays down the stretch.
Looking ahead at the Horns…
First and foremost Tiger fans, it’s the BLACKOUT game at Mizzou Arena. So if you’re headed to the game Wednesday evening, wear black…or do whatever you can to support the BLACKOUT theme…I’m not offering suggestions beyond that.
This is a huge game for both teams. The winner keeps pace with Texas A&M and Baylor at 7-4 and a three-way tie for 3rd place in the Big 12. In that respect, it’s especially big for Mizzou since they already dropped their games to the Aggies and Bears earlier. Texas split with those two earlier in conference play and has a game remaining with each down the stretch. The loser goes to 6-5 and has a fairly steep uphill battle to gain a first-round bye in the conference tournament, not to mention some work left to do to be a lock for the NCAA Tournament.
Take the recent slide after the Longhorns’ ascent to the nation’s top ranking and throw it out the window. I don’t care what the record says or what the pundits say about how they’re in a free-fall or they’re perhaps not as good as they appeared early-on…Texas is a very good basketball team. They have a lot of talent across the board, some great experienced players and some new faces with great energy. Aside from being the top scoring team in the conference, they match up with the Tigers better than almost anybody in terms of desired tempo. Texas likes to get out and run and they have the athletes to do it. They are the best rebounding squad in the conference which is an area Mizzou has struggled this year. They are very strong and deep in the middle. That point can’t be overemphasized. Their bench is almost as deep as Mizzou’s in terms of minutes played. They don’t rely on the three like many teams in the conference do but they convert well from behind the arc. The only area they struggle from a statistical standpoint is at the free throw line where they’re bottom of the Big 12 at a tepid 61%, including a rock-bottom 37% (from the stripe…seriously…10 for 27) during a nine-point loss to Oklahoma. To be fair, they’ve been over 73% the last two games. To be fairer still, they’re really just 51.2% in conference roadies on the season. This could be huge because Mizzou will have fouls to give against Texas.
Quick hitters on Texas’ personnel…
EXPECTED STARTERS
· Any conversation about Texas begins with senior G/F Damion James. He’s the conference’s 4th leading scorer (18.9) and leading rebounder (11.3). He’s also the Big 12’s all-time leader in rebounds (1,239) and double-doubles (50). He’s a physical presence who draws a lot of fouls. He’s going to get his.
· Senior C Dexter Pittman has seen a bit of a scoring slump in conference but still swatting 2 shots and ripping down 5 boards in under 20 minutes per game. He’s especially efficient on the offensive glass. The big question with him will always be his conditioning. They’ll mention on the broadcast no fewer than 11 times how much weight he lost from when he stepped on campus (nearly 80 lbs). That story is tied-for-first for ”Big 12 Conference Color Analyst Go-To Anecdote of the Year” with the cutesy tale of Kim English and his habit of sleeping in the locker room/practice facility. Nevertheless, the fewer minutes Pittman plays, the less damage he can do. Last year, he scored 25 points in 23 minutes against the Tigers. Expect Coach Anderson to find spots for Steve Moore to match up with Pittman and give Ramsey a break. Moore should foul liberally.
· Freshman G Avery Bradley might have an outside shot for Big 12 freshman of the year. He’s shooting 52.6% from the field including a blistering 53.5% behind the arc. He was 6 for 7 on Saturday from deep in the blowout of Nebraska. He’s horrible from the stripe (40%) but hardly ever gets there. He’s the second leading scorer for the Horns at 15.1 ppg. He’s the best (thus far) of the three highly touted freshmen for the Horns.
· Junior G Dogus Balbay takes good care of the ball, distributes it well (3.4apg) and plays solid perimeter defense. He’s not a shooter, nor any kind of legit, consistent offensive threat but he can bury the occasional three. For the record, I said the same thing about Cade Davis (OU) a few weeks back so naturally I expect Balbay to drop 18 on the Tigers Wednesday night.
· Freshman G J’Covan Brown scored 28 on Kansas last Monday filling in for an injured Justin Mason, which earned him a start over the weekend against Nebraska. In that one he turned in a 12 point/6 assist effort. Brown has experienced plenty of growing pains learning Coach Barnes’ system and getting out of his comfort zone. He is an explosive player offensively and it appears his defense is finally up to snuff to garner increased playing time. He’s great from the line as well.
BENCH
· Junior F Gary Johnson started one game (KU) and then made his way back to the bench where he has been rock solid for Barnes. He’s a very dangerous force in the middle and tough defensive matchup if Pittman and James are already on the floor. He chips in 10ppg/7rpg and would start on most teams in the conference.
· Freshman F Jordan Hamilton was another player slow on the uptake with Barnes’ philosophy. He’s not afraid to fire it up and poor shot selection was the target of his coach’s criticism. Seems things have started to turn for him, like Brown, with the buy-in on defense. He’s got good range.
· Senior G Justin Mason is a four year starter for UT who went down with a left ankle injury in practice last week. He had been moved to the bench for the Kansas game, presumably to allow Johnson to start to better match up with KU’s size. Mason is questionable for Missouri game. At full strength, he’s a solid defender but offensively anemic – his scoring average has dropped each season. He’s the worst FT shooter on the team. Barnes has said when Mason and Balbay are on the floor, Texas is playing “3 versus 5”.
· Junior G Jai Lucas is in his first season with UT after transferring from Florida where he had started a full season as a freshman. Now he’s the 5th or 6th option at guard but hey, he’s closer to home. Lucas has PG pedigree but hasn’t really been given the keys to run the show yet. He’s only behind Balbay in most assists per 40 minutes.
Having established that Texas is the second coming, how do the Tigers beat them? First, playing this game at home is a huge advantage. This is the biggest home game to this point and I think the crowd will respond and support accordingly. Texas’s home/road splits, especially in conference games, are meaningful. Same with the Tigers. I expect the Tigers to get out-rebounded by Texas because that is just what they do. Realistically, Mizzou isn’t going to stifle both James and Pittman but they have to limit the damage. The Tigers can absorb one guy with a big night (see: James Anderson/OSU) but if two or more guys go off, that could spell trouble. They’re outmatched inside but should be able to slow the Texas guards on the perimeter. Help defense will be key and getting to the 50/50 balls is huge. Mizzou has to turn Texas over and convert into transition buckets. With Mason potentially out, the depth at guard shrinks a little and this could play in Missouri’s favor. Can Texas put the ball into the hands of two freshmen and get a win on the road? That is the big question. I say no. Calling this one 80-76 Tigers.
TIDBITS TO HELP YOU DOMINATE WATERCOOLER CONVERSATION
· Texas has a player on their roster named Andrew Dick – no word on if it’s the same guy from Old School.
· Texas hasn’t scored in the 80s in conference play but have allowed exactly 80 three times…all Longhorn losses.
· Longhorns 5-0 in Big 12 play when shooting over 42% from the floor
· Texas has trailed at halftime in 8 of their 10 conference games and have come back to win six of those 8.
M-I-Z…
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