· One of the glaring shortcomings of this team reared its ugly head at the absolutely worst time vs Baylor: REBOUNDING. They absolutely had to get a rebound on that late free throw and it just didn’t happen.
· Hate to point fingers but I thought the Tigers left a lot of points on the board with wide-open misses, particularly by Justin Safford early in the game.
· The formula for sneaking out a road W was there – keep it close, don’t do anything terribly stupid and give yourself a chance late in the game. Just didn’t make enough plays down the stretch.
Looking ahead at the Horns…
First and foremost Tiger fans, it’s the BLACKOUT game at Mizzou Arena. So if you’re headed to the game Wednesday evening, wear black…or do whatever you can to support the BLACKOUT theme…I’m not offering suggestions beyond that.
This is a huge game for both teams. The winner keeps pace with Texas A&M and Baylor at 7-4 and a three-way tie for 3rd place in the Big 12. In that respect, it’s especially big for Mizzou since they already dropped their games to the Aggies and Bears earlier. Texas split with those two earlier in conference play and has a game remaining with each down the stretch. The loser goes to 6-5 and has a fairly steep uphill battle to gain a first-round bye in the conference tournament, not to mention some work left to do to be a lock for the NCAA Tournament.
Take the recent slide after the Longhorns’ ascent to the nation’s top ranking and throw it out the window. I don’t care what the record says or what the pundits say about how they’re in a free-fall or they’re perhaps not as good as they appeared early-on…Texas is a very good basketball team. They have a lot of talent across the board, some great experienced players and some new faces with great energy. Aside from being the top scoring team in the conference, they match up with the Tigers better than almost anybody in terms of desired tempo. Texas likes to get out and run and they have the athletes to do it. They are the best rebounding squad in the conference which is an area Mizzou has struggled this year. They are very strong and deep in the middle. That point can’t be overemphasized. Their bench is almost as deep as Mizzou’s in terms of minutes played. They don’t rely on the three like many teams in the conference do but they convert well from behind the arc. The only area they struggle from a statistical standpoint is at the free throw line where they’re bottom of the Big 12 at a tepid 61%, including a rock-bottom 37% (from the stripe…seriously…10 for 27) during a nine-point loss to Oklahoma. To be fair, they’ve been over 73% the last two games. To be fairer still, they’re really just 51.2% in conference roadies on the season. This could be huge because Mizzou will have fouls to give against Texas.
Quick hitters on Texas’ personnel…
EXPECTED STARTERS
· Any conversation about Texas begins with senior G/F Damion James. He’s the conference’s 4th leading scorer (18.9) and leading rebounder (11.3). He’s also the Big 12’s all-time leader in rebounds (1,239) and double-doubles (50). He’s a physical presence who draws a lot of fouls. He’s going to get his.
· Senior C Dexter Pittman has seen a bit of a scoring slump in conference but still swatting 2 shots and ripping down 5 boards in under 20 minutes per game. He’s especially efficient on the offensive glass. The big question with him will always be his conditioning. They’ll mention on the broadcast no fewer than 11 times how much weight he lost from when he stepped on campus (nearly 80 lbs). That story is tied-for-first for ”Big 12 Conference Color Analyst Go-To Anecdote of the Year” with the cutesy tale of Kim English and his habit of sleeping in the locker room/practice facility. Nevertheless, the fewer minutes Pittman plays, the less damage he can do. Last year, he scored 25 points in 23 minutes against the Tigers. Expect Coach Anderson to find spots for Steve Moore to match up with Pittman and give Ramsey a break. Moore should foul liberally.
· Freshman G Avery Bradley might have an outside shot for Big 12 freshman of the year. He’s shooting 52.6% from the field including a blistering 53.5% behind the arc. He was 6 for 7 on Saturday from deep in the blowout of Nebraska. He’s horrible from the stripe (40%) but hardly ever gets there. He’s the second leading scorer for the Horns at 15.1 ppg. He’s the best (thus far) of the three highly touted freshmen for the Horns.
· Junior G Dogus Balbay takes good care of the ball, distributes it well (3.4apg) and plays solid perimeter defense. He’s not a shooter, nor any kind of legit, consistent offensive threat but he can bury the occasional three. For the record, I said the same thing about Cade Davis (OU) a few weeks back so naturally I expect Balbay to drop 18 on the Tigers Wednesday night.
· Freshman G J’Covan Brown scored 28 on Kansas last Monday filling in for an injured Justin Mason, which earned him a start over the weekend against Nebraska. In that one he turned in a 12 point/6 assist effort. Brown has experienced plenty of growing pains learning Coach Barnes’ system and getting out of his comfort zone. He is an explosive player offensively and it appears his defense is finally up to snuff to garner increased playing time. He’s great from the line as well.
BENCH
· Junior F Gary Johnson started one game (KU) and then made his way back to the bench where he has been rock solid for Barnes. He’s a very dangerous force in the middle and tough defensive matchup if Pittman and James are already on the floor. He chips in 10ppg/7rpg and would start on most teams in the conference.
· Freshman F Jordan Hamilton was another player slow on the uptake with Barnes’ philosophy. He’s not afraid to fire it up and poor shot selection was the target of his coach’s criticism. Seems things have started to turn for him, like Brown, with the buy-in on defense. He’s got good range.
· Senior G Justin Mason is a four year starter for UT who went down with a left ankle injury in practice last week. He had been moved to the bench for the Kansas game, presumably to allow Johnson to start to better match up with KU’s size. Mason is questionable for Missouri game. At full strength, he’s a solid defender but offensively anemic – his scoring average has dropped each season. He’s the worst FT shooter on the team. Barnes has said when Mason and Balbay are on the floor, Texas is playing “3 versus 5”.
· Junior G Jai Lucas is in his first season with UT after transferring from Florida where he had started a full season as a freshman. Now he’s the 5th or 6th option at guard but hey, he’s closer to home. Lucas has PG pedigree but hasn’t really been given the keys to run the show yet. He’s only behind Balbay in most assists per 40 minutes.
Having established that Texas is the second coming, how do the Tigers beat them? First, playing this game at home is a huge advantage. This is the biggest home game to this point and I think the crowd will respond and support accordingly. Texas’s home/road splits, especially in conference games, are meaningful. Same with the Tigers. I expect the Tigers to get out-rebounded by Texas because that is just what they do. Realistically, Mizzou isn’t going to stifle both James and Pittman but they have to limit the damage. The Tigers can absorb one guy with a big night (see: James Anderson/OSU) but if two or more guys go off, that could spell trouble. They’re outmatched inside but should be able to slow the Texas guards on the perimeter. Help defense will be key and getting to the 50/50 balls is huge. Mizzou has to turn Texas over and convert into transition buckets. With Mason potentially out, the depth at guard shrinks a little and this could play in Missouri’s favor. Can Texas put the ball into the hands of two freshmen and get a win on the road? That is the big question. I say no. Calling this one 80-76 Tigers.
TIDBITS TO HELP YOU DOMINATE WATERCOOLER CONVERSATION
· Texas has a player on their roster named Andrew Dick – no word on if it’s the same guy from Old School.
· Texas hasn’t scored in the 80s in conference play but have allowed exactly 80 three times…all Longhorn losses.
· Longhorns 5-0 in Big 12 play when shooting over 42% from the floor
· Texas has trailed at halftime in 8 of their 10 conference games and have come back to win six of those 8.
M-I-Z…
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