Missouri (21-7, 9-4) at Kansas State (23-4, 10-3)

Thoughts from the last few games…

- Marcus Denmon is ridiculous. It’s been great to watch him progress this year. He’s got a confident outside shot and has done really well of late taking the ball to the rim. It’s exciting to watch his development. I would, however, caution him from attempting another breakaway dunk.
- Kim English is a dynamic, dangerous player when he takes the ball to the basket and doesn’t settle for jumpers. His “Lord that was a terrible shot” tendency has decreased significantly of late. Plus, he might be THE one player on the roster that can absolutely take over a game if he gets hot…Denmon closing quickly.
- This is the JT Tiller we thought we’d see all year. He very nearly had Missouri’s first ever triple double against Colorado. Kind of bummed he didn’t get there. If he plays like this the rest of the year, the Tigers are a much better squad
- Keith Ramsey’s contribution on both ends cannot go unnoticed. He’s been a “right place, right time” guy of late with a flurry of offensive put-backs and seems to have placed an extra emphasis on rebounding with 25 boards in his past three games. He’s also blocked a pair of shots in each of the past three. Oh, and the guy plays the second most minutes on the team in conference games behind Zaire Taylor. “Keef” has been great!
- You can’t help but be impressed with the balance on this team. On any given night, any one of 6 or 7 guys can legitimately go for 20+ points and they really seem to be buying into the “playing together” philosophy at the right time.
- Tigers have balance not only in personnel but in the way they win. They beat Texas by dominating the free-throw competition; they blew out Nebraska and Colorado by shooting remarkably well, especially from deep. In all wins, they force turnovers and converted them into points. In those 3 wins, the Tigers enjoyed 65 points off of opponent turnovers.
- Mizzou is averaging 13 offensive rebounds in conference play and it seems that there are 3 or 4 per game that come at key times (see: Ramsey, Keith). This somewhat makes up for their relative weakness on the defensive glass.
- It seems Mizzou has placed a definite emphasis on their “inside-out” game. They don’t have traditional back-to-the-basket, low-post threats but they’re making the effort to get the ball in the paint, either by dribble-drives or passing, then kicking it out to the shooters. When Mizzou struggles, it’s normally because they become satisfied with the outside shots, miss a bunch, don’t get boards, can’t set the press and things snowball from there.
- The Tigers suffered a huge loss this week when Justin Safford tore his ACL early in the Colorado game. His loss won’t look tremendous statistically but the minutes and some of the intangibles are going to be tough to replace. Expect Larry Bowers to start, Steve Moore to see an increase in minutes and I think John Underwood will get a look off the bench once per half as that fourth big.

Looking ahead to Kansas State…

Mizzou was able to knock off the Wildcats in the conference opener this year in large part due to their forwards/center playing poorly and ours playing so well. To refresh, the frontcourt vs KSU bigs: Scoring margin +11; Rebounding deficit at only -3 and perhaps the stat of the game: Mizzou forwards committed 13 fewer fouls than their KSU counterparts. Also, the Wildcats only dished out 6 assists in that contest, their fewest total in a full year. Kansas State still gets to the foul line a ton, still doesn’t shoot terribly well when they get there. They are extremely strong on the offensive glass and shoot pretty well from the field. They are prone to turning the ball over and putting their opponents on the foul line as well. They are comfortable playing at Missouri’s pace. KSU has lost two conference home games (OSU and Kansas) by a combined 6 points. Reasons behind these home losses? The Wildcats shot 36% from the field vs OSU and Kansas beats everybody pretty much everywhere though KSU took the Jayhawks to overtime. My point is that they’re pretty stout at home and seem to either have to run into a premiere team (KU) or have an extremely off-night (OSU) if they’re going to lose. On the flip side, Nebraska gave them all they could handle last week in Manhattan so anything’s possible. Mark down a distinct home-court advantage for Kansas State on Saturday night.

There’s a lot at stake in this one. KSU has a legit chance at earning a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament with a stron finish in the regular season and the Big 12 tournament. They would likely have to beat KU at least once if not win the tournament. I think any loss to a team NOT named Kansas might eliminate them from consideration for that top-line. Winner of this one assumes second place in the conference standings and is likely a lock for a first round bye in the Big 12 tourney. A win guarantees a non-losing conference road record for Mizzou with one to play in Ames next week. K-State is also looking to cap off a perfect record in February which is obviously huge in the eyes of the NCAA seeding committee.

Personnel-wise, they are paced in the backcourt by senior G Denis Clemente and junior G Jacob Pullen. These guys are their two leading scorers (both top 10 in conference) and combined for 37 in Columbia but labored to do it – each guy missed 10 field goal attempts. They are basically the only two outside threats for KSU and each will pull it 7+ times from deep, well over half of their total attempts. They’re also the only two players that will make a free throw on a consistent basis. In my estimation, this is the best backcourt in the Big 12 with a shout-out to the boys in Baylor and that other team from the Sunflower state. Inside they start junior Fs Curtis Kelly and Dominique Sutton along with senior C Luis Colon. This has been their starting lineup for the duration of conference play. Colon is only averaging about 15 minutes and 3ppg – he is usually replaced by sophomore F Jamar Samuels as the game gets going. Samuels can give the Cats a double-double off the bench in any given game. Freshman G Rodney McGruder has emerged as the first guard off the bench for the Wildcats. He’s a plus defender whose offensive contribution, by all accounts, is just waiting for the opportunity to shine, but has not been necessary this year. He’s gone scoreless his last five games but averages 12ppg/7rpg in games where he plays 20+ minutes. So if he gets long stretches of clock, watch out. Another name off the bench is freshman F Wally Judge, who was AAU teammates with McGruder back in D.C. I get the sense that Coach Martin and the coaching staff was expecting more out of Judge in his freshman campaign and it would not surprise me at all if he had a big night against Mizzou.

How I see this one playing out…

The bottom line in this one will be rebounding. An undermanned Mizzou frontcourt, lacking one of their starting forwards, and is the worst defensive rebounding team in the conference, is pitted against one of the best offensive rebounding squads in the nation. Game, set, match. The only way I see the Tigers sneaking out of Manhattan with a win is if they have a phenomenal game on the glass or they shoot out of their minds and don’t create those rebounds. However, I don’t expect them to shoot well on the road in a hostile environment (and if you haven’t caught a KSU home-game this season, you’ve been missing one of the best home courts in the conference if not the country). See “tidbits” for what I think is an interesting stat on this… I believe the Mizzou guards will keep Pullen and Clemente from completely going off but I see Kansas State owning the paint on Saturday. Mizzou will force some turnovers and get their transition points but it’s not going to be enough. If, by some sheer stroke of luck, this turns into a free-throw shooting competition, I like the Tigers chances. I’ve thought this one was shaping up to be a loss for Mizzou all along and I’m now just trying to figure out the margin. I don’t think it’s going to be a terribly close contest but I certainly hope I’m way off on this. Official prediction: 82-70 Wildcats.

TIDBITS TO HELP YOU DOMINATE WATERCOOLER CONVERSATION AND GENERALLY LOOK SWEET AROUND LESS KNOWLEDGABLE SPORTS FANS…

- KSU is 6-1 in conference road games which is quite impressive. Guess where that one loss came.
- Mizzou is 21-8 in Big 12 play the last two seasons, second best in the league behind Kansas at 27-2.
- Tigers are on pace to break the Big 12 record for steals per game (11.2 currently vs Nebraska’s 10.9 figure during the ‘98-’99 season)
- Mizzou was 12-4 under the starting lineup of Tiller, Taylor, English, Ramsey and Safford. For the record, Tiller, Taylor, English, Ramsey and Bowers were the starters at Vanderbilt, a 6pt loss for the Tigers and the only time that bunch has started this season.
- Mizzou has won the “points in the paint” battle the last 6 games. In their 7 conference games prior to the current streak, they won it exactly once by a whopping two points.
- The CU victory marked the fourth time in conference play the Mizzou bench scored 40+; Tigers 7-0 in Big 12 games when their bench gets 30+.
- After starting out shooting 38% from the field in conference roadies, Mizzou has shot 47% in the last 3 games. 3 fewer made field goals on 46 fewer attempts. From deep, it’s a bump from 42% to 49%. I like, no LOVE, where this trend is going.
- Tigers winless in Manhattan since 2004, that’s 5 straight with an average margin of defeat at 19ppg. Yikes. Shot under 40% from the field in all but one of those.
- Justin Kutcher will provide the play-by-play for the ESPNU broadcast…no relation to Ashton.

M – I – Z…