NCAA TOURNEY - RD 1

10 Missouri (22-10, 10-6 Big 12) vs 7 Clemson (21-10, 9-7 ACC)

Different format – start with Clemson personnel and then move into other stuff. Don’t judge me.

STARTERS
Trevor Booker, Sr F (6-7, 240) – lefty who has started every single game in his Tiger career, First Team all ACC, this is their guy to stop, 8 double doubles this season, 31 for his career. He will be a handful (understatement). Not a threat from outside but might pull the occasional shot from deep (1+ per game). FT% way down from last year (71%-59% ) A/T way up (0.92-1.27). Random Stat: Clemson 10-1 when he gets 4+ OR’s; also 10-1 when he makes 4+ FT’s

Demontez Stitt, Jr PG (6-2, 175) – team leader in assists, streaky shooter (see: English, Kim); moves to 2-guard if sub Andre Young’s in there with him. Random Stat: Clemson 16-1 when Stitt has 3+ dimes; Random Trivia: Turned 21 on Tues. Hope he’s still hungover.

Tanner Smith, So SG (6-5, 220) – shooting guard who’s not a great shooter. However, when he hits 50% or better, Clemson is 12-1 (random stat)

David Potter, Sr F (6-6, 215) – 1st year starter, good defender, seen production climb every year, most shots from deep, though not a great shooter (36% FG, 38% 3P) Can find himself in foul trouble. Never gets to the foul line. Random Trivia: Oldest player on the team (23) – shares b-day with Jerai Grant which is cute when they hit Chuck E. Cheese and team up on air hockey.

Jerai Grant, Jr F/C (6-8, 220) – good shot-blocker and on the O-glass, high pct shooter (64%), fouls are a major issue. Clemson is only 3-5 when he has 4+ fouls. Son of Harvey, nephew of Horace (NBA). Played in 2006 KMOX Shootout in STL for DeMatha (MD) and had 19pt/21reb. Random Stat: Clemson 8-3 when Grant scores in double figures.

BENCH
Andre Young, Soph PG (5-9, 170) – 3pt shooter (5 attempts/game – 36% not stellar but OK); best A/T on team at 1.32; 26mpg off the bench, most steals on team. Very capable backup PG who gets starter minutes but overall, shot needs to develop.

Noel Johnson, Fr G/F (6-6, 190) – highly touted frosh, likes the 3; former USC signee; needs to fill out. Random Stat: has attempted (ATTEMPTED) a free throw in only THREE games this year. That’s weird for a guy averaging 15mpg.

Devin Booker, Fr F/C (6-8, 235) – younger brother of Trevor. Best FG% among ACC freshmen (57%). Random Trivia: sick and tired of being compared to his brother; just wants to go into his bedroom and make paintings that are sexual and violent

Milton Jennings, Fr F (6-9, 225) – McD’s AA – hasn’t done a whole lot this year. Minutes down lately.

Clemson forces a lot of turnovers, like Mizzou, but they are careless with the ball on their own end. On the year they have more turnovers than assists. This is a big red flag: ball security is at a premium in the NCAA tournament when quantity of possessions is generally shrunk to some extent. They’ve committed 10+ turnovers in every game this year and there’s no reason to expect them to magically take care of the ball appreciably better against Mizzou’s press. Look for 15+ turnovers out of Clemson in this one. The big statistical mismatch is in rebounding, particularly when Clemson misses shots. They’re a pretty good offensive rebounding team with guys like Booker and Grant crashing the glass, whereas Missouri has had problems all season corralling opponent’s misses. And Clemson, hardly a dead-eye shooting team, especially from deep, will miss their fair share of shots. The magic number here for Mizzou is 35. The Tigers (MU) are 18-2 when they get 35+ rebounds. I won’t charge you for that one. The defensive key in this game, from a personnel standpoint, will be to keep Trevor Booker from absolutely exploding. He is a marquee player in a power conference and I expect Ramsey to start out defending him but it could be Bowers. The concern with Bowers guarding a dynamic scorer like Booker is that he’s prone to fouling and he could find himself on the bench for the rest of the first half by the 2nd TV timeout. I don’t think Mizzou can afford to risk that. Ramsey moves well for a big man but is he quick enough to stay with Booker, who Clemson Coach Oliver Purnell plays on the wing from time to time? That’s something to watch out for. I think Booker will remind Mizzou fans a lot of Texas standout Damion James. Similar build, minus the beard. Both double-double machines but James is definitely more of an outside threat. Mizzou should be able to relatively neutralize the Clemson guards with Tiller and Taylor, plus backups Denmon and Dixon marking Stitt, Smith and Young. English will likely draw Potter out of the chute. I would gently suggest that the Tigers drop into a zone from time to time to force Clemson to shoot over the top. They’re very good from 2pt range, Booker and Grant in particular, not so much from deep, though capable of getting hot – they’ve hit 8 or more threes 12 times on the season (10-2 in those games). Zone defense also helps protect from a foul standpoint, which is big in the absence of Safford. Steve Moore’s going to have to play 10-12 quality minutes and be a monster on the glass in his limited time. And, of course, Mizzou’s going to have to knock down some shots, which has been seemingly impossible at times lately. In the four full games since Safford went down they’ve shot 36% from the field, 23% from deep, barely eking out one win in that span, a game which took OT and three ridiculous shots by Zaire Taylor (by the way, an APB for the Chris Rock doppelganger – where have you been dude?) Moreover, during that span their A/T is 0.84 and they’re losing the rebounding margin by nearly 9/game. This does not bode particularly well.

The bottom line in this one is that both teams are eerily similar. Neither shoots particularly well, both will turn you over, both want to get out and run, both are inconsistent and therefore capable of catching fire and blowing you out…or capable of going ice cold and punishing the rim (not in a good way). Clemson has the sure-fire go-to guy that Mizzou lacks but Mizzou’s better at taking care of the ball and distributing the offense. The Tigers have to rebound in this one, especially on the defensive end. They cannot allow Clemson to get a bunch of 2nd chance put-backs. If this comes down to foul shots, Mizzou has the edge. Clemson neither gets to the line very frequently, nor shoots well when they get there. This should be an entertaining game to watch unless you’re a die-hard fan of 50-point defensive, half-court struggles (see: 90% of Big 10 games). I am not a fan of such tempo but will admit that watching extremely sloppy basketball kind of sucks too. This will not be easy but I think Mizzou got a good draw and this game will be played at a pace they tend to excel at and they pull it together, for one game (and one game only) and extend their stay in Buffalo with a 74-71 victory over Clemson.

M-I-Z…