COLORADO

Well, put me in the category of “glad those three games are in the rearview.” The worst nightmare has come true for the Tigers in October, going winless in their first three conference tilts, suffering a lingering injury to the most important player on the field and generally just playing like garbage most of the month. Their offense has gone stagnant to the tune of 12ppg (they’ve scored 3 total after intermission…that’s it, THREE freaking points in the second half of conference play). This dry spell in scoring is unfathomable and borderline comical. The last time the Tigers failed to score 20 points was the 2007 Big XII Championship Game in San Antonio when they were held to 17. The last time they went 3 consecutive games without scoring 20 points was 10 years ago, in the 1999 season, where the Tigers sandwiched a 14 pt outburst vs A&M between shutouts in Norman and Manhattan to close out that atrocious season. What’s at the root of this offensive free-fall? Well, it has to begin at QB…it always does, for better or worse. Gabbert has clearly not been good since Suh fell on his ankle in the first quarter of the Nebraska game. It’s obviously still a major major concern and an injury that I don’t think will fully heal this season unless he were to take an entire month off. Consequently, Gabbert’s completion pct has gone down by 20pts (66% to 46%), yards per game has dropped from 290 to 181 and yards per attempt has fallen from 8.9 to 5.3. But those are just peripheral numbers… the worst, most telling comparable is his TD/INT…11/0 in non-conference…2/5 since. Just awful.

The ankle injury which severely limits his ability to push off and drive the ball has noticeably affected his touch and accuracy. He’s also lost one of his best assets – his legs. His mobility is OK at best and he has almost zero ability to get out of the pocket and make something happen with his legs. The result is Gabbert trying to make plays relying on his arm strength alone and the normal zip on the ball isn’t there and he’s been off accuracy-wise a lot.

So, the passing game has hit the skids, surely the ground attack has buoyed the O. Fail. The rushing game has gone into complete hibernation. Save for a few stat-padding runs late in games and one drive vs Texas, Mizzou has sucked running the ball. In non-conference, they were getting just under 3.8ypg, which was pretty brutal to begin with, but that figure has fallen to 2.65ypg in conf games. They’re running the ball 8x less per game on average in conference play and, overall, they’re gaining only 78 yards per game, vs 143 in their first four games. It isn’t much of a surprise that ypg and ypc would drop as competition stiffens in conference play but these dramatic drop-offs are pretty significant. Mizzou’s third down conversion has fallen from a respectable 45% in non-con to 27% in Big XII play for an overall rate of 37% which is in the lower 1/3 of the nation. Their turnover margin has also gone to shit (+.75 in non-con; -2.0 in conf). You’re not going to win many games losing the turnover battle by two on average. The way I see it, it’s a perfect storm of shit.

The defense has stepped up to some extent…or at least they haven’t fallen nearly as dramatically or noticably as the Tiger offense. Yards per play, yards per game and total plays are about the same between non-conference and conference games. Passing yards allowed are identical at 218 per game (though ypa is up from 5.7 to 6.3 indicating bigger-gaining plays in conf games). The one area where the D is suffering in conference play, however, is the spot it matters most: points allowed. After holding non-conference foes to 15.5 ppg (lowest since 2006), that figure has more than doubled to 33.7 in the last three games.

The good news is that Colorado is the opponent this week and, no disrespect, but they’re just not that good. The Buffs are 10th or worse in conference in almost all major offensive and defensive categories including DFL (dead freaking last) in total O, scoring O and pass efficiency D. They are also DFL in punting, punt returns and sacks allowed. Bright spots? They’re OK on kickoff returns and sacking opposing QBs. They’re the only team in the BigXII averaging below 5 yards a play…and they’re way below that at 4.2ypp. Their D also allows the most yards per play in the conference at 5.8. Statistically, they’re horrible, there’s just no two ways around it. I thought their loss early in the year at Toledo when they got absolutely embarrassed sealed the fate for this being Coach Dan Hawkins’ last year in Boulder but a surprise upset of Kansas two weeks ago might have bought him a little more time. I thought at the beginning of the season that both Colorado and Kansas State would win one game they absolutely had no business winning and, to me, Colorado already peaked with that win vs Kansas. (By the way, KSU’s 62-14 thrashing of Texas A&M was THEIR surprise win of the year but I’ll get to them in a few weeks). Coach Hawkins finally benched his son, Jr QB Cody Hawkins so Soph QB Tyler Hansen is running the offense now but he’s not exactly a remarkable improvement…though he has NOT thrown 11 INTs like Cody. Hansen (no relation to the “Mmmm, bop!” brothers from the 90s) can buy time with his legs and make some plays that way which is one of the main reasons for the switch. Colorado has one mediocre playmaker at receiver who’s really more of an energy guy in my estimation and that would be Jr WR Scotty McKnight. He’s caught 41 passes for 431 yards and 3 TDs. The other main receiving threat is Sr TE Riar Greer who has 29/350/3. Soph RB Rodney Stewart is the feature back for the Buffs, 467 yards on 120 carries (3.9ypc) and 6 TDs. He’s 5th in the conference in yards per game, but mostly because he fattened up on the non-conference schedule. He hasn’t done a whole lot since the start of BigXII play (ypg dropped from 90 to 66 and ypc from 4.6 to 3.2). Many are surprised to see him as “the man” in the backfield as his classmate, Soph RB Darrelll Scott was the NUMBER 1 recruit in the nation coming out of high school in 2008, according to Rivals but, for whatever reason, he just hasn’t panned out. Expect Scott to get a few touches on Saturday but don’t confuse this as a rotation, Scott is clearly the backup.

On the defensive side of the ball, there are a few players to keep tabs on at each level. Colorado traditionally has pretty solid linebackers and this year is no exception. Not superstars, but solid. Sr LB Jeff Smart leads them in tackles with over 8 per game. Sr LB Marcus Burton is a little more of a dynamic player, often coming on blitzes, tallying 4 sacks and 7.5 tackles for loss. Kind of lost in the shuffle is Jr LB BJ Beatty who has a PBU, 2 QB hurries and 2 sacks to supplement his 19 tackles on the season. Jr CB Jalil Brown has two picks on the year and 8 total passes defended (6 PBUs). Colorado only has 4 interceptions on the season – remember, this is the worst pass efficiency D in the conference. From the defensive line, Jr DE Marquez Herrod leads the Buffs in sacks (5.5) and TFL (8). It’s telling that 6 of the Buffs top 10 tacklers are defensive backs.

I think this game is going to come down to which offense gets going, more specifically, who can establish a running game to take pressure off the QBs. Colorado’s Hansen is still getting his feet set and not being relied on to win games for them – more of a “game manager” at this point but surely that will change in the near future. And obviously Missouri’s Gabbert is limited by a balky ankle. The offensive line play for the Tigers has been a little better in recent weeks, which is encouraging. This is the game where the Tigers have to put it on their O-Line and have them dominate en route to a victory. This unit has to play with a chip on their shoulder and not let Colorado near Gabbert. On the other hand, the play-calling needs to be modified to include an assortment of shorter passes, similar to what Chase Daniel did the past few years. Clearly Gabbert’s arm allows a more vertical attack but his accuracy is suffering and I just don’t think it’s a good idea to leave him back in the pocket, on a regular basis, for the length of time it requires for those plays to develop. I think you keep him firing short and then pick your spots going deep, using extra protection. I want to see more two-back sets out of shotgun. I'd like to see them try the pistol. The Tigers have to do a better job of going forward on 1st and 2nd down so they’re not sitting 3rd and 8, 3rd and 10, obvious passing downs, where the D sends 7 guys at full speed. This is the game that OL takes over and clears space for the running game to get going. Admittedly the Buffs rush D has been better in conference play and that’s the primary reason they were able to upset Kansas. Missouri just has to figure out how to run the ball this week and supplement that with short, high percentage passes. And for the love of God, when Gabbert puts the ball on your hands, you have to catch it. Seems like we have had our fair share of drops and the margin for error is too thin to do those things, especially on the road, in the middle of a 3 game losing streak. I think you put this one on the offensive line and the defense and protect Gabbert at all costs. The next two weeks, the Tigers face 2 of the worst rushing D’s in conference. It’s time to step up. I think Mizzou gets untracked and puts one in the win column for October, Tigers over Buffs 27-20.

TEXAS GAME - OH CRAP PART DEUX

First of all, how do you leave Shipley wide the hell open all night long? I just don't get that...not marking your opponents best receiving option. But that didn't lose the game for the Tigers. They were just overmatched and apparently unprepared to face Texas, which is crazy. I though the playcalling was pretty bad for the Tiger O. When you have a QB who is struggling to walk, why would you ever run a 3rd down play where the QB could possibly run the ball? Somehow, though, this game doesn't chafe me as much as the previous two losses. This is a crossroads for the Tigers though...three consecutive losses, none particularly close (at least at the end of the game)...I think it's a legit concern that Pinkel could lose this team and they could spiral to another 3 or 4 losses their final 5 games. Hope that's not the case but it's not unfathomable.

I say it doesn't happen. Last time Mizzou lost 3 straight, in late 2006, they came back and slaughtered KU at home 42-17 which kind of marked the coming out party for the Chase Daniel-led Tiger era for 2007-2008. Perhaps the same thing will happen out in Boulder next Saturday. Last two years, Mizzou's trounced CU 113-10. I don't expect it to be quite that easy. At this point, I'll take a win in any form or fashion.

I firmly believe that every game is reasonably winnable from here on out. I didn't feel that way about Texas. We had to get every bounce and then some to have a shot. 5-3 probably wins the Big XII North and I think Missouri can get there but in order to win the NOrth for the 3rd consecutive year, the Tigers will need some help.

The season is not lost and the most difficult stretch of the schedule is behind us. I think we'll know in the first 15 minutes next Saturday what we can expect the rest of the way for the Tigers. I just pray that this doesn't turn into 2004...in that season we lost to the same three opponents consecutively, as this year, and then proceeded to lose the next two home games to KSU and KU. It's time to stop the bleeding. Let's be real...Colorado isn't a great football team. They only have one win in conference, but of course that was at home vs Kansas. Still, their resume thus far isn't appreciably worse than Mizzou's even though I firmly believe the Tigers are the better team. The wild card in all of this is Gabbert. He's not well. That ankle will be an issue the rest of the year and everybody knows that. Everytime he gets hit, Mizzou fans will wince. Every time he even looks like he'll take off running, Tigers will hold their collective breath. If he's able to go and be moderately effective, we can win out. If not...we might miss a bowl for the first time since that 2004 campaign.

We shall see.

TEXAS GAME (oh crap)

For the third week in a row, Mizzou faces their most difficult opponent, to date. Texas visits Mizzou on Homecoming, coming off a big win against their rival OU Sooners in the Red River Shootout last week in Dallas. Mizzou forgot to come out of the locker room in the 2nd half down in Stillwater and shot themselves in the foot too many times to steal a victory. Let’s be honest, the numbers in this one overwhelmingly favor Texas. Last year I predicted a close Tiger win but the Longhorns completely dominated Mizzou at the line of scrimmage. The Longhorns shut down the running game (less than 2ypc) while goring Mizzou for 5+ per carry and cruised to an easy victory. It was painfully clear that the major talent gap between Mizzou and the Texas’s and Oklahoma’s of the world doesn’t lie in the skill positions, but on the offensive and defensive lines. Last year, Texas kept Colt McCoy clean, allowing him to go 29-32 for 337 yards and 2 TDs (another on the ground). Bad bad memories. If the Nebraska game was a swift kick to the groin, and the Oklahoma State game was more of a drawn out painful experience, then perhaps the trend is telling us that the Texas game will be an “early club to the head” sort of ordeal. Could be. Texas’s offense isn’t as explosive as a year ago but I’d be lying if I said a 28 point Mizzou loss would surprise me terribly much, given where these two teams are right now. That said, here are 5 keys for Mizzou to have a shot in this one.

1) Protect Gabbert – UT Defensive Coordinator is one of the best and he’ll give Gabbert all he can handle. Gabbert has to get rid of the ball on time and be decisive. With that gimpy ankle, don’t want him running around all day outside the pocket. I think this means fewer shots downfield and a more controlled passing game, kind of like what Chase Daniel used to run.

2) Take what’s there – Barring a 180 in Mizzou’s rushing offense and Texas’s rushing defense, Mizzou likely won’t be able to move the ball on the ground. The might surprise for a big play or two here and there but Texas leads the nation in rush D (36 yards per game) and the Tigers are in the bottom quartile. To the people calling for Mizzou to try to run the ball 50x, shorten the game, play for field position and hope for some trick plays or opportunities in special teams I say this: Do you enjoy pounding your head against a brick wall? I think the Tigers should use the short passing game as a pseudo running game and take calculated shots down the field to keep Texas honest. Gabbert also can’t be afraid to just throw it away and live for another play when things blow up.

3) Hold onto the ball – Mizzou is -5 in turnover margin in their two losses. To have a shot in this one, they CANNOT lose the turnover battle. The Tiger receivers need to do a better job of pulling the ball in when Gabbert puts it on them and cannot put the ball on the deck. McCoy has already thrown 7 picks on the year (vs 8 in all of 2008) and he’s thrown one in every single game. The Tiger D has to capitalize on those tipped passes or near-interceptions you see every week. Those HAVE TO BE CAUGHT by the boys in black and gold.

4) Start fast(er) – obviously it’s been established that this offense doesn’t get out of the gate as early as the 2008 edition. But I would argue that they’re perhaps more explosive. Clearly the Tigers have taken more shots downfield this year and who knows how the OSU game goes if Kemp holds onto that picture-perfect toss from Gabbert for a sure TD…I think if the Tigers get down 14-17 points early in this one, it’s over. This isn’t Bowling Green. To piggyback on that a bit…an opening drive TD would be a nice change. Haven’t seen one of those this year.

5) Win 3rd down – the Tigers have done an AMAZING job of putting themselves in 3rd and long this year. Well over half of their 3rd downs have required 7+ yards. In such situations (3rd and 7+), Mizzou passes 84% of the time but only completes 49% of those passes and overall conversion success is a paltry 27%. When they attempt to rush the ball in those situations, they average 1.6ypc (of course, sacks factor in but still…). Mizzou converted 28% of 3rd downs against Nebraska and 20% vs OSU. In both games, their opponent had a better conversion rate (47% and 28% , respectively). Success on 3rd down is largely predicated on what happens on 1st and 2nd so the Tigers have to get some good yardage on early downs to put themselves in a better position on 3rd. Normally the answer would be: RUN THE FOOTBALL MORE (Mizzou passed 20 more times than rushed against OSU – a huge tactical error in my estimation) – against the Horns, it’s just not going to work – have to dink and dunk and hopefully find a big play here and there. Easier said than done.

The bottom line is that Mizzou is still relatively young and inexperienced, particularly offensively with a true Sophomore QB playing with a bad wheel. We could play the “what if” game about how the last two games have gone but that’s the nature of sports, particularly at the amateur level. Mizzou is in a slump, to borrow a baseball term, but the 3rd ranked team in the country would hardly qualify as a slumpbuster (Baylor, where are you when we need you?!?!?!?) I am generally as optimistic as they come but I just don’t see this one turning out well for Mizzou. I don’t think they’ll get blown out like a season ago, because I don’t think UT’s offense is quite what it was last year and the Tiger D is an improved unit. Total D has improved, through 6 games in both seasons, from 381ypg to 337ypg with the major difference being a 71 yard improvement in passing yards allowed. The offense, however, has taken a step backward, which was expected after all that left. It’s just a really tough task this week going against one of the most accurate passers in college football history, behind a sturdy O-Line...and we haven’t even begun to discuss the 11th year senior receiver for the Horns, Jordan Shipley. Seriously, that guy has been there forever. Kind of reminds me of the guard from Iowa State who seemed to have about a 7 year basketball career…the great Jake Sullivan. Texas will bring the best defense Mizzou’s seen all season…not looking too promising. I’ll call this one 38-24 Texas.

OKLAHOMA STATE PREVIEW

I’m not gonna lie, I’m still so NOT over that nut-shot of a loss to Nebraska that I don’t know what to do. I have avoided most college football media over the past week because I can’t stomach the sight of “Pelini is God” or “Nebraska is Back” or “Order is Restored” propaganda. I think this sentiment highlights one of the commonalities among Mizzou fans - - - we tend to get too high with the highs and too low with the lows. As much as we try to move past and look to the next week, it’s so tough. I was on cloud 9 after the surprise blowout of Illinois and I’ve been moping around like Eeyore with an STD since last Thursday’s loss. The normal fervor for college football has been replaced by a lot of questions and skepticism. Will Mizzou ever establish something resembling a running game? How bad is Blaine’s ankle? Is the Tiger offensive line as overmatched as they sometimes look? Will we ever see football played in the rain like that again?

I’m not on the ledge. I’m not on the window looking out at the ledge. I’m not even on the elevator to go up to the floor to go and look at said ledge. But I think some concerns are warranted. That Nebraska game is hard to take anything away from save a final score. And it sucks even more to think that Mizzou was up by two scores and neither offense was doing much of anything – indicating what I thought was an inevitable but certainly ugly Tiger victory. Obviously, the weather was just ridiculous and took away some things both sides wanted to do. That said, both teams had to play in it and it wasn’t like the rain was all-of-the-sudden. The Huskers’ marquee player got the best of the Tigers’ marquee player in more ways than one. Suh was absolutely unbelievable, making play after play, nearly gnawing off Blaine’s ankle, picking a ball off when he had about 0.3 seconds to react to it and generally just owning everything in sight. So hats off to that guy. After Blaine’s ankle deal, he was clearly never the same, completely hampered mobility-wise and he couldn’t push off to get that zip on the ball that made jaws slack through the first four games. And in the end, it was enough to tip the scales in the favor of Nebraska.

Well, hopefully those two cathartic paragraphs exorcises the bad feelings inside so I can geek up for the Oklahoma State game…I know this game in Stillwater is winnable. I knew it watching these two teams last year, I knew it when I saw OSU shock Georgia in the first week and I knew it even moreso when I watched them get it handed to them on their own turf by Houston. I knew it before starting RB Kendall Hunter was slowed by an ankle injury and before all-everything WR Dez Bryant was suspended by the NCAA. Early-on this year it became clear to me that the 2009 OSU Cowboys were running a parallel course to the 2008 Tigers and we all recall what happened 10/11/08 in Columbia when the Pokes came to town and Mizzou was riding a high of highs, having just annihilated Nebraska in Lincoln. I’ll save you the suspense but Mizzou failed to go for it on 4th and goal from the 3 inch line early in the game, turtling and kicking instead, and it just unraveled from there. Chase’s 3 picks didn’t help. Anyway – let’s proceed.

Oklahoma State Offense
QB Zac Robinson is a SR now and he’s the number 1 QB in the Big XII in terms of passing efficiency. He’s completing 61% of his passes for 1,070 total yards, 3 picks against 8 TDs and averages an ungodly 9.4 yards per pass attempt, far and away the leader in the conference (only one other QB is in the 8’s) – that ypa figure is 5th nationally. He can do it on the ground too, scoring a touchdown with his legs in all but one game this year. His marquee receiver is Dez Bryant but he’s been ruled ineligible by the NCAA as of now for playing pattycake with Prime Time (or is it Neon Deion?) Sanders. Not sure if he could be reinstated by 8:15pm Saturday but I suppose anything’s possible. Bryant is a major threat. This cannot be overstated. Most think he’s one of the top 2-3 receivers in the nation. Mizzou kept him fairly under wraps last year – he caught the ball 7 times to lead the team, but only gained 47 yards on those receptions. I seem to remember a huge hit on him in special teams early in the game that might have had something to do with his productivity. He’s only played in their first 3 games (Georgia, Houston and Rice) this year but has averaged 107 yards per game, 19 yards a catch and scored 4 times. He’s also run a punt back for a TD. He’s a huge weapon…IF he’s in. He’s the best receiver the Tigers will play this year in my estimation…IF he plays. The Tigers prepared all week as if he’ll play but, again, he’s still suspended by the NCAA at this point. Last week, in a hard-fought win at Texas A&M, Robinson spread it around pretty good, gaining almost 280 yards in the air but not hitting any one receiver more than 3 times on his 14 completions. He did connect with FR WR Tracy Moore for a 51 yard strike midway through the 3rd quarter to give the Pokes the lead. Other names to watch from a WR standpoint are Josh Cooper, Dameron Fooks and Hubert Anliyam, all sophomores. All average 15+ a catch and all have scored this season. Fooks has the most size of the three, for what it’s worth. Lest you get intimidated or seduced by the Poke passing attack, make no mistake about it, Oklahoma State is a RUNNING team, averaging 196 yards on the ground, good for 2nd in conference and 24th nationally. Admittedly, this is down a bit from 2006-2008 when they led the conference in rushing. They run more frequently than any team Mizzou’s played thus far this year – 64% of offensive snaps. They run 70% of the time on 1st down, 65% on 2nd down and on 3rd and short (1-3 yards) they’ve run it 14 out of 15 times in such situations and converted half of those rushes to first downs. An interesting nugget that I uncovered is that on 3rd and 10+, they’ve rushed 6 of 15 times (40%) but they’re averaging 20.7ypc on those 6 rushes. Odd. Personnel-wise, with Hunter iffy for this Saturday, the burden of the rushing workload will fall to SR RB Keith Toston. He’s averaging 5.69ypc and scored 4 times. SR RB Beau Johnson and FR RB Jeremy Smith also will get some touches, spelling Toston and perhaps Hunter. Of the two primary options, Hunter is the far more explosive one and Toston is the bruiser. And don’t forget about the QB, he can move too and is especially talented at setting up the play-action passing game with the running threat. This is a very dynamic offense that has a lot of experience. The offensive line has three senior starters who have played a lot of ball together and their LT Russell Okung is a beast. They’re 2nd in the nation in sacks allowed with only 2 through 5 games. One of their Achilles heel’s is ball security – they’ve got a negative turnover margin, having lost 7 fumbles and been picked off four times.

It’s pretty basic – OSU will run and run and run to set up their efficient and, some would argue, opportunistic (especially without Bryant) passing attack. The good news is that the Tigers have had a modicum of success against run-heavy teams. They held Nevada, now the top rushing team in the nation, 25% below their season average. Same with Illinois. Same with Nebraska. Mizzou must contain Robinson, bottle up the run as best they can and force the Cowboys into passing situations. Then the trick is to not get burned for big plays. With Hunter back at 100% and Bryant reinstated, that is a far bigger challenge than it is if both are out. Stay tuned to the latest on those two guys. To complicate matters, somewhat, on the Tiger defensive front, reserve LB Will Ebner is out indefinitely with a torn meniscus (knee). He will for sure miss the OSU game and possibly Texas as well. Ebner’s one of the main physical presences of the Tiger LB corps. Dude lays the wood.

Oklahoma State Defense
The Cowboys are “OK” on rush D (116ypg, 37th nationally, 6th in conference) but mediocre at best in terms of points allowed (23.2ppg, 53rd nationally, 8th in conference) and passing defense (241ypg, 89th nationally, 10th in conference). In total D, they’re dead in the middle nationally (60th) and 8th in the conference allowing a tick under 358ypg. On a per-play basis, they allow 4.8ypp, good for 6th in the Big XII. They have a major-league playmaker in Perrish Cox in their secondary. He’s pretty much been a shut-down corner for them and is also a huge factor in the return game. He’s not as explosive as Bryant on punt returns but he’s no chump. Cox has broken up 9 passes thus far this year. That’s a big-time number. Their defense is doing a much better job of getting to the QB this year, doubling their sacks per game from a year ago. Perhaps more importantly, the bulk of their sacks are coming on defensive line pressure, not blitzes. This is critical in beating pass-heavy teams like Mizzou. Getting pressure with your front four increases your chances for success tremendously in defending against the pass. Look out for DE Richetti Jones for the Pokes – he’s been in the backfield a ton this year. In the OSU loss to Houston, they failed to sack Cougar QB Case Keenum on any of the 46 times he dropped back to throw the ball. To be fair, though, they did hold him to his second lowest passing output on the season (a mere 366 yards and 3 TDs – it’s all relative). Yes, the Cowboys have seen some a couple pretty good passing attacks this year: Houston is 1st in the nation and Texas A&M is 9th. Mizzou entered the Nebraska game as the 10th ranked passing offense in the country, but after the waterlogged affair in Columbia last Thursday, their ypg dropped from 310 to 275, and their national rank suffered accordingly, slipping to 18th. The Cowboys have a new defensive coordinator in Bill Young who has them playing a much more disciplined brand of football…very similar to Mizzou’s own Dave Steckel with the Tiger D. OSU is stingy on 3rd and 4th down rushing attempts, holding opponents to just 29 yards on 31 attempts for 7 first downs (0.9ypc; 23% conversion rate). Opponents are passing 52% of the time against OSU. On 1st down, it’s the opposite, with OSU foes running the ball 53% of the time. On 2nd down they’re passing 53% of the time against the Pokes. On 3rd and 4th, it’s 3/2 in favor of the pass. Opponents ypa on 3rd and 4th down is 7.8, which is promising for Mizzou’s inevitable 3rd downs after they go zone-read for gain of 2 on first down, and incompletion on 2nd down. (There I go again…) Actually, while we’re on the subject of the anemic rushing attack of the Tigers…one thing you CANNOT say is that Mizzou isn’t committed to the run. They’ve run 372 plays on the year and exactly half of them have officially been rushing attempts (7 sacks). It is simply a matter of execution. On 1st down, their commitment peaks as they’re rushing the ball 55% of the time for 4.1ypc. By 2nd down, they’re rushing 53% of the time for 2.9ypc. That’s a pretty significant dropoff in the ypc average – nearly 30%. By the time 3rd down rolls around, Mizzou is throwing the ball 60% of the time. And why wouldn’t they? On the 77 third downs they’ve had on the season, 47 of them have required 7+ yards for a first down (61%). Mizzou absolutely has to do better on first and second downs, regardless of the play-calling. I am having a hard time really putting my finger on the rushing woes. Some of it is scheme, some is playcalling. Some is the predictability of it all. I challenge you to name 4 distinct rushing plays the Tigers attempt – I am finding it difficult to recall anything but the zone-read…I don’t expect Blaine under center with a fullback and the I-formation but something’s clearly not working. Their overall 3.56ypc is as low as it’s been since at least 2003. I don’t want to turn into Texas Tech who has no qualms about passing 50x every game. Some are saying D-Wash just doesn’t look the same, he’s lost explosiveness, what have you. Some say the offensive line is weak at the point of attack. Some are saying the plays just take too long to develop. I don’t think D-Wash is washed up (pun somewhat intended) but I can’t disagree with any of the three major theories here. To me it’s a combination of all three and not necessarily the same primary reason each game. To be successful this Saturday night in Stillwater, Mizzou will have to run the ball. They have to get the O-Line playing better (4 holds against Nebraska!). And for the love of all that is holy, the Tigers need to get on the attack early. Their first drives of the game have been borderline atrocious. They scored on their first drive only once and that was a field goal in the Illinois game. Since then, they ran 4 plays for 4 yards against Bowling Green and punted; ran 3 plays for 1 total yard against Fordham and punted; ran 3 plays for zero yards against Nevada and punted (the returner, if you recall, muffed that one and Mizzou would recover and go onto kick a FG but still); and against Nebraska last week they ran 8 plays for 14 yards (hindered by a PI penalty on the Tigers) and punted…man it would be a huge boost if the Tigers came out guns-blazin’ and took it to the Pokes on their opening possession. That was a hallmark of the 2008 team.

Special Teams
Cowboys have a great punter in Quinn Sharp - he leads the conference with nearly a 48 yard average. Jake Harry for the Tigers is no slouch (nearly 45 yards a kick) and certainly turned out to be a weapon against Nebraska. Grant Ressel, Mizzou’s kicker, has been solid thus far. This matchup’s about even but if Bryant is back, that changes everything.

How I think this will play out...
It’s getting redundant but it’s absolutely true. The team that can control the line of scrimmage will win this game. Period. Playmaker-wise, if both teams are at 100%, this year the talent edge goes to the Cowboys. But it’s looking like OSU will be without their top WR and top RB, which obviously is huge. Mizzou’s offensive line has to show up on Saturday. They’re not playing against a disruptive force like Suh this time around but expect OSU’s defensive line to be talented. If the line can keep Gabbert clean and Washington can find some creases, Mizzou will be able to move the ball. A major wild-card here is Blaine’s right ankle. I think you’ll be able to tell early on if he’s feeling OK by the playcalling. If they don’t take some medium-to-long shots early in the game or Blaine isn’t trying to make things happen with his legs, you know it’s a lingering issue. He and the team are downplaying the severity but I know what I saw both during the Nebraska game and some of the photos and video in the aftermath. Wasn’t pretty. The Tigers on defense cannot get sucked in and torched on a big play. I think they’ll have some decent success against the OSU rushing game but one play-action bomb for a score can change things in a hurry. Mizzou can’t get impatient and undisciplined on D. Robinson is a good QB but he thrives when he’s a threat to run, even though he hasn’t enjoyed as much success doing that this year. Mizzou’s two games against rushing QBs have shown mixed results. Juice was awful in the opening week. Kaepernick nearly pulled enough plays off to win the game in Reno. I think Mizzou comes into Stillwater pissed off after letting last week’s game slip through their rain-soaked fingers. I think the Tigers’ main offensive strength matches up nicely against OSU’s apparent weakness. I think we’ll see plenty of players with chips on their shoulders. Mizzou and OSU have played some very memorable games over the last 10-15 years and it always seems to be close. Mizzou’s record in Stillwater in the last 2 decades might surprise some people, see below…I can justify this pick because it’s made under the assumption that Dez Bryant is out and Kendall Hunter is as well…and the weather is not calling for 40 days and nights of rain. God I’m still so pissed. I’ll go 34-31 Tigers in this one. Admittedly, this is factoring in no small amount of hypothetical in favor of the boys in Black and Gold.

TIDBITS TO DOMINATE WATERCOOLER CONVERSATION…AND LIFE IN GENERAL
- In Mizzou’s last three trips to Sweetwater, they’re 3-0 with an average margin of victory of 3.67ppg
- Last four meetings with OSU and 7 of the last 8 have been decided by a TD or less
- It’s homecoming at OSU this weekend – the first homecoming game was at the University of Missouri in 1911. Oh sweet, delicious irony.
- OSU Coach Mike Gundy is A MAN. He’s 40!!! OK, he’s 42 now. (Still love hearing that clip from the 2007 interview)
- Dez Bryant is Tiger reserve RB Gilbert Moye’s cousin. Fairly confident I read that somewhere.
- Second consecutive game for the Tigers against a QB named “Zac” with that spelling.
- This Zac is better than that Zac which kind of scares me
- Stillwater, OK is the home to Eskimo Joe’s, a place I must visit before I depart this planet
- Stillwater is also name of the fictional band in the fantastic 2000 film, “Almost Famous”. I cannot believe that movie is nearly a decade old. If you haven’t seen it, you’re missing out. Awesome!

Nebraska Preview

And we’re back! After nearly a 2 week layoff, the Tigers crank it up again on Thursday night in Columbia under the bright ESPN lights for the conference opener against the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Nebraska comes in at 3-1 and ranked in the 20s in both polls. Their only loss on the year is to Virginia Tech on the road. The Huskers absolutely had that game won but they inexplicably had a major defensive brain fart against one of the worst passing attacks in college football to allow the Hokies an opportunity to march 88 yards in 5 plays for the winning TD late in the 4th quarter. So perhaps you can make the case that Nebraska “should be” 4-0 but they’re not…yet they clearly will be the best team Mizzou has faced all season.

When Nebraska has the ball…
The main players for the Huskers at the skill positions are Jr QB Zac Lee and Jr RB Roy Helu Jr. Lee has been steady in his first four games as the starter under center. He’s passed for 927 yards and 7 TDs against 3 INTs. His 8.8 ypa is 3rd in conference (Gabbert and OSU’s Robinson are tops at 8.9) and his 64.8% completion rate is 6th. He has to be the front-runner for 1st team all Sun Belt as he lit up Florida Atlantic, Arkansas State and Louisiana-Lafayette in the Husker’s three wins. In the loss at VT, he struggled mightily, going 11 for 30 (36.7%) for only 136 yards, no TDs and 2 picks. I am not suggesting that Mizzou is the defensive equivalent the Hokies but I WOULD suggest that they’re better than any of the other three Husker opponents. My point being that Zac Lee can be rattled. This will be his second start away from home and he still has a ton to prove. Helu, on the other hand, is the real deal. He’s as good as any back in the Big XII that Mizzou will see this year with perhaps the only exception being Tolston of Okie State. He’s the conference’s leading rusher to this point (116 ypg) and averaging 6.36 per carry which puts him tops in conference for anybody averaging 10+ carries a game. In contrast to Lee, he had a pretty solid game in Blacksburg, carrying 28 times for 169 yards but failed to find the end zone as did Nebraska’s entire team. Both were career highs for Helu. He’s got 5 rushing TDs on the year and 11 catches for 91 yards without a score. Nebraska has really spread the ball around to their receiving targets this year. Helu and Jr TE Mike McNeill (a St. Louis kid) lead the team with 11 catches each, followed by Jr WR Niles Paul who has 10. (Paul is also the team’s return-man, averaging 10 on punts and 24 on kickoffs.) So WR Curenski Gilleylen leads the team with 255 receiving yards on just 8 catches. He’s not listed as a starter but clearly they look to him as a deep threat. Two seniors round out the primary targets: Chris Brooks (another St. Louisan) and Menelik Holt. McNeill is the only receiver who has more than 1 TD on the year. The Huskers don’t have a receiver averaging even as much as 65 yards per game but they have seven targets averaging 20+. It appears that either Lee is comfortable distributing the ball all over the place or they really don’t have a “cut above” playmaker on their roster. My guess is that they view their receivers as sort of an interchangeable, homogenous pool of guys and substitute freely. Their lack of what would appear to be a go-to guy (like Danario for Gabbert) might prove to be problematic. Then again – the defense can’t key on one receiver to designate as the guy they CANNOT let beat them. The offensive line seems small for a Nebraska team but maybe they’re trending to lighter, quicker linemen. They average just a shade under 300 lbs.

Nebraska is 6th in total offense in the conference (19th nationally) with 440 yards per game and 3rd in scoring (9th nationally) at just under 40 points per game. Their 7 yards per play is tops in the Big XII and good for 4th in the nation. They are a fairly balanced team, running the ball just a tick under 52% of their offensive plays. They rush about 60% of the time on first down, and why wouldn’t they with Helu shredding the Sun Belt the entire month of September. They’re averaging 7.1ypc on 1st down rushes. On 2nd down they drop to a 46% rushing team, averaging 5.1 per carry. On 3rd and 4th downs, they run the ball 42% of the time and that ypc average plummets to 1.7. Nebraska has spent much of their season playing ahead and in fact more than half of their offensive plays have occurred when they’re up 8 or more points. However, when the game is close, within 7 points either way, completion percentage drops to 54.7%. Their rushing game is steady regardless of the score, ripping off 5.7 ypc. What I kind of find interesting is that they’re still a 50/50 passing team when up 15+. I guess conventional wisdom would be to run the ball, kill clock, etc but they seem to be just as willing to put it in the air. Mizzou absolutely must work hard to shut down Helu and the rushing game and put the Huskers in 3rd and long. Nebraska has only converted 4 of 13 “3rd and long” (7+ yards) situations into first downs on the season. Also, Helu did not practice on Tuesday – Coach Pelini wouldn’t confirm nor deny that it was the flu, just that he wasn’t feeling well and was sent home from practice to rest. I don’t know, might be gamesmanship but since when does “not feeling well” excuse one of your top players from the last legitimate practice in advance of the biggest game of the year? Something sounds a little amiss here. For what it’s worth, Helu’s backup is Fr RB Rex Burkhead who has gone 18/84/1 thus far this year.

Mizzou is 8th in the Big XII (59th nationally) in total defense, allowing 352 ypg and 5th in conference (21st nationally) in scoring defense, giving up 15.5ppg. Mizzou allows 4.8 yards per play, which puts them in the top third nationally. As opposed to a year ago, opponents are fairly balanced in their attack against the Tigers, opting to pass the ball only slightly more overall. Last year, opponents attempted more passes against Missouri than any other in the nation (582). In terms of attempts per game, opponents are trying about 4 fewer passes this season but the real statistical improvement has come in the yards per attempt. In 2008 opposing passers were enjoying nearly 7 ypa and that figure has dropped to 5.7 this season. Completion percentage is down a bit as well. Obviously, the 2008 numbers were after a full conference slate, a conference championship game and the bowl win, but take it for what it’s worth. I think there’s solid evidence that the pass defense is improved from a season ago. The rushing defense is middle-of-the-pack nationally and lower 1/3 in conference, largely due to Nevada’s 218 yards on the ground last game. The numbers are down slightly from a year ago and much is attributed to the loss of NFL first rounder Ziggy Hood. Though not big on the stat sheet, there’s something to be said for taking up 2-3 blockers and freeing up linebackers and other DL to make plays. Mizzou has done a great job thus far this year of avoiding big plays, giving up just two completions over 25 yards (as opposed to 30 in 14 games last year). On the rushing side, they’ve only allowed one run of 20+ (13 a season ago). Again, not a perfect “apples to apples” comparison at this point in the season but it’s encouraging for Tiger fans.

So what will the strategy be on Thursday night for each unit when the Huskers have the ball? I would expect Nebraska go to their bread and butter, Helu, and try to get the ground game going. Long, sustained drives that methodically march downfield and chew up the clock are exactly what you need to quiet a hostile crowd in this kind of game. Another reason I think they’ll opt for this attack initially is that a significant amount of rain is forecast for Columbia throughout the game. It’s more difficult to pass the ball than run it in the rain. I expect Lee to use play action to find some big plays in the passing game but generally I believe they’ll be fairly conservative. For Mizzou, it’s simple. I think you have to control Helu and make Lee beat you. He showed he couldn’t do it in Blacksburg and I think the environment will be even more hostile in Columbia on Thursday. Tigers must tackle well and hold their own at the line of scrimmage – something they were having some problems with in Nevada at times. I smell a big game from Spoon and one of the Smith boys.

When Missouri has the ball…
If there’s one Nebraska defensive player you’ve heard of, chances are it’s their Sr DT Ndamukong Suh (last name pronounced “Sue”). He leads their team in tackles with 6.5 per game as well as tackles for loss (4.5), sacks (2.0) and pass breakups (6). It’s very very odd for a defensive lineman to lead his team in tackles, a testament to how dominant he is. Sue is as good as Mizzou will see this season on the defensive interior and the Mizzou offensive line will have their hands full with him. Think Glenn Dorsey from LSU in 2007 before the back issue slowed him down late in the season. Sue is clearly a guy to keep tabs on before every snap. He could make it a long night for Gabbert and the Mizzou offense. Another name many will recognize is former Mizzou recruit (and native) RS Fr LB Will Compton. Compton was the 2nd best player coming out of Missouri in 2008 (behind Gabbert) and when Gabbert de-committed from Nebraska in the midst of the Callahan saga, many thought Compton might jump ship too and become a Tiger. Apparently the Husker assistant that showed up at his home with a temporary “Compton” tattoo really resonated with young Will and he ended up a ‘Sker. Will the The thrill is likely to be one of the only linebackers on the field as he’s expected to play in both the nickel (5 defensive backs, 2 LBs) and dime (6 DBs, 1 LB) packages. By all accounts that are somewhat independent and not originating in Lincoln or Omaha, the Husker secondary and linebacking corps are suspect and they certainly haven’t been tested like they will be on Thursday night. None of their previous opponents can hold a candle to what Mizzou will bring in the passing game. Really don’t need to throw a lot of numbers at you to justify that. Call it the eyeball test.

The Huskers have held opponents to a salty 7.0 points per game, tops in the nation. I think if they played the entire Sun Belt conference, that number might hold but I expect it to go up considerably after Thursday night. It should be noted that their three Sun Belt opponents have combined for exactly one win against a D-1 opponent on the year so it’s not like we’re talking about the cream of the crop of that conference. Overall, Nebraska is 4th in the Big XII in total defense (21st nationally), allowing 285.5 yards per game. They’re only allowing 170 yards passing but, again, they haven’t seen a passing attack like this, not even close. Opponents are rushing on the Huskers far more than they’re passing on 1st and 2nd down but enjoying more success when they do pass the ball on these early downs. On 3rd and 4th down, Nebraska’s yards allowed per carry goes up to 4.6 but yards per pass attempt drops to 3.6 as opponents are passing nearly 70% of the time on these later downs. It should also be noted that Nebraska’s pass completion percentage allowed on 3rd down is just 39% and 25% on 4th down. The Husker rush D doesn’t seem to relax, regardless of the score as they’re allowing 3.1 yards per carry when they’re up by 8+ as well as when games are close (within 7 either way). I could slice and dice their numbers all day long but it’s really difficult to draw solid conclusions as their level of competition, outside of Virginia Tech, is pretty weak. Not that Furman and Bowling Green are world-beaters, but the Tigers did play a neutral game against what was supposed to be a good Illinois squad, and then took a trip out to Reno to play a Nevada squad that has been an exceptional rushing team the last two years, despite their early struggles this season. I feel that, at this point in the season, Mizzou has been tested more than the Huskers. I’ll admit that their game in Blacksburg was a tougher game than either of Mizzou’s games away from Faurot, but there’s something to be said for the Tigers playing two fairly solid (on paper at least) teams in the non-conference away from their home field. OK, I’ll step off of my soap box for a second.

Switching over to the Tigers’ offensive scheme and what we can expect them to do against the Huskers…obviously Missouri’s early-season rushing “struggles” have been well-documented. It’s a bit misleading because even though the only rushed for 78 yards in the Nevada win and are currently getting “only” 143 yards per game (60th nationally, 10th in Big XII), entering that game in Reno they were rushing for 164 per game. The passing game was so open against Nevada that Mizzou didn’t need to run the ball that much and I firmly believe Gabbert could’ve thrown for 500-525 yards had they decided to call enough pass plays. I agree that the ground game needs to close the gap somewhat with the passing attack but to characterize it as a weakness is a bit of an overstatement. Not as strong as last year, sure. I think the offensive line will benefit tremendously from the extra time off this week not only to get healthy but to gain a bit more cohesion. We shall see. De’Vion Moore should be back this week to help out back there with Washington and Lawrence. It’s interesting to me that this is an issue after going through all the off-season, summer workouts and the first few days figuring the ground game was one area of the offense we could rely on. Gabbert has been about as great as anybody could’ve imagined but there’s still room for improvement. His numbers speak for themselves (66% completion rate, 1,161 yards, 11 TDs, zero picks, 168.57 QB rating to lead the conference) but I am still a little concerned with how he tends to lock on his primary receiver, resulting in him forcing some balls into tight spots (TWSS) and missing other wide-open receivers from time to time. He’s got that rocket arm but I’m nervous his reliance on it to always bail him out will eventually lead to some picks. I mean it’s bound to happen so might as well prepare for it. Another slight concern is his tendency to abandon the pocket before he needs to. Premature evacuation is something that eventually gets corrected as he continues to gain trust with the offensive linemen and their protection. I love his escapability but there’s a difference between running out of the pocket to avoid pressure as opposed to leaving it early before the play has a chance to develop. It’s almost like he’s not quite yet comfortable sitting back there. This is COMPLETE nitpicking but I don’t want him to get out of the pocket and get crunched. Jared Perry is off to a great start and is the first Tiger to catch TD passes in each of the first four games to start a season. Danario Alexander has become a strong contender for all conference and is showing what a playmaker he is when healthy. Wes Kemp has been a great deep threat as well. Andrew Jones hasn’t come close to the production of Coffman and Rucker, his predecessors, but he’s making the catches he should. Backup tailback Lawrence made one of the most memorable catches of the year against Nevada on a very risky throw on the move by Gabbert. Overall, the passing game is looking pretty good. Unlike last year, Mizzou hasn’t gotten out to a very fast start offensively, often taking three to four possessions to start clicking. That’s fine in non-conference when you have a clear-cut talent advantage in most games. As the second season begins, Mizzou cannot afford to get behind early or start really playing until the 2nd quarter. Gabbert has been money in the 2nd half, completing passes at a 77% clip, averaging 12.7 yards per attempt and 9 of those 43 attempts (21%) have gone for 25+ yards. Clearly when the kid gets settled in, he’s pretty lethal. Just need him, and the rest of the O, to get things going a little quicker.

How I see this playing out…
I think the intangibles of this game are going to be huge. I’ve already mentioned the forecasted rain and it probably helps Nebraska more than Mizzou. Wet weather magnifies mistakes, especially in the kicking game and in terms of turnovers. Rain or shine (well, it won’t shine since it’s a night game) the crowd will be in an absolute frenzy for this one. The Huskers can downplay it all they want but this will be a loud, raucous group. It’s a huge game in terms of controlling the Big XII North – the loser is essentially in a two-game hole. I think you’ll see the Tiger defense start out a lot like they did in 2007 just laying the wood all over the field. Expect an early penalty – I just think somebody’s going to try to set the tone with a huge hit that draws a flag. I think Nebraska will be able to sustain a few drives early on behind the running of Helu and the controlled passing game. I think they’ll also sputter as they approach the Tiger red zone, just as they did in Blacksburg (5 field goals accounted for all the scoring). On a wet, slippery night, ball security will be at a premium. I think Mizzou will try to air it out early to soften up the Nebraska D and then let the RBs do their thing. I expect Nebraska to play a lot of nickel defense and try to get pressure with just their front four. I predict they won’t find the success they’re looking for. And why is that? Because I saw them try to do that at VT on the Hokies’ final TD and Tyrod Taylor sat back there for probably 8 seconds before he hit the game winner. This game is absolutely going to be won at the line of scrimmage. The Tigers are still the more talented team but the gap has closed from the last two years in my estimation. At the skill positions, Mizzou appears to be ahead of the Huskers. But that makes little difference if you can’t control the line of scrimmage. I think the layoff helps the Tigers work out the kinks and they play more mistake-free football than Nebraska to pull out a big win in Columbia. Tigers 33-19 over Nebraska.

TIDBITS TO HELP YOU DOMINATE WATER COOLER CONVERSATION

- Huskers are 2-17 in their last 19 road games against ranked opponents, dating back to the 1997 season.
- Mizzou has beaten Nebraska 3 consecutive times in Columbia, scoring 41 points in each victory
- Munir Prince will miss this game for the Tigers with a hamstring injury