with an STD since last Thursday’s loss. The normal fervor for college football has been replaced by a lot of questions and skepticism. Will Mizzou ever establish something resembling a running game? How bad is Blaine’s ankle? Is the Tiger offensive line as overmatched as they sometimes look? Will we ever see football played in the rain like that again?I’m not on the ledge. I’m not on the window looking out at the ledge. I’m not even on the elevator to go up to the floor to go and look at said ledge. But I think some concerns are warranted. That Nebraska game is hard to take anything away from save a final score. And it sucks even more to think that Mizzou was up by two scores and neither offense was doing much of anything – indicating what I thought was an inevitable but certainly ugly Tiger victory. Obviously, the weather was just ridiculous and took away some things both sides wanted to do. That said, both teams had to play in it and it wasn’t like the rain was all-of-the-sudden. The Huskers’ marquee player got the best of the Tigers’ marquee player in more ways than one. Suh was absolutely unbelievable, making play after play, nearly gnawing off Blaine’s ankle, picking a ball off when he had about 0.3 seconds to react to it and generally just owning everything in sight. So hats off to that guy. After Blaine’s ankle deal, he was clearly never the same, completely hampered mobility-wise and he couldn’t push off to get that zip on the ball that made jaws slack through the first four games. And in the end, it was enough to tip the scales in the favor of Nebraska.
Well, hopefully those two cathartic paragraphs exorcises the bad feelings inside so I can geek up for the Oklahoma State game…I know this game in Stillwater is winnable. I knew it watching these two teams last year, I knew it when I saw OSU shock Georgia in the first week and I knew it even moreso when I watched them get it handed to them on their own turf by Houston. I knew it before starting RB Kendall Hunter was slowed by an ankle injury and before all-everything WR Dez Bryant was suspended by the NCAA. Early-on this year it became clear to me that the 2009 OSU Cowboys were running a parallel course to the 2008 Tigers and we all recall what happened 10/11/08 in Columbia when the Pokes came to town and Mizzou was riding a high of highs, having just annihilated Nebraska in Lincoln. I’ll save you the suspense but Mizzou failed to go for it on 4th and goal from the 3 inch line early in the game, turtling and kicking instead, and it just unraveled from there. Chase’s 3 picks didn’t help. Anyway – let’s proceed.
Oklahoma State Offense
QB Zac Robinson is a SR now and he’s the number 1 QB in the Big XII in terms of passing efficiency. He’s completing 61% of his passes for 1,070 total yards, 3 picks against 8 TDs and averages an ungodly
9.4 yards per pass attempt, far and away the leader in the conference (only one other QB is in the 8’s) – that ypa figure is 5th nationally. He can do it on the ground too, scoring a touchdown with his legs in all but one game this year. His marquee receiver is Dez Bryant but he’s been ruled ineligible by the NCAA as of now for playing pattycake with Prime Time (or is it Neon Deion?) Sanders. Not sure if he could be reinstated by 8:15pm Saturday but I suppose anything’s possible. Bryant is a major threat. This cannot be overstated. Most think he’s one of the top 2-3 receivers in the nation. Mizzou kept him fairly under wraps last year – he caught the ball 7 times to lead the team, but only gained 47 yards on those receptions. I seem to remember a huge hit on him in special teams early in the game that might have had something to do with his productivity. He’s only played in their first 3 games (Georgia, Houston and Rice) this year but has averaged 107 yards per game, 19 yards a catch and scored 4 times. He’s also run a punt back for a TD. He’s a huge weapon…IF he’s in. He’s the best receiver the Tigers will play this year in my estimation…IF he plays. The Tigers prepared all week 
as if he’ll play but, again, he’s still suspended by the NCAA at this point. Last week, in a hard-fought win at Texas A&M, Robinson spread it around pretty good, gaining almost 280 yards in the air but not hitting any one receiver more than 3 times on his 14 completions. He did connect with FR WR Tracy Moore for a 51 yard strike midway through the 3rd quarter to give the Pokes the lead. Other names to watch from a WR standpoint are Josh Cooper, Dameron Fooks and Hubert Anliyam, all sophomores. All average 15+ a catch and all have scored this season. Fooks has the most size of the three, for what it’s worth. Lest you get intimidated or seduced by the Poke passing attack, make no mistake about it, Oklahoma State is a RUNNING team, averaging 196 yards on the ground, good for 2nd in conference and 24th nationally. Admittedly, this is down a bit from 2006-2008 when they led the conference in rushing. They run more frequently than any team Mizzou’s played thus far this year – 64% of offensive snaps. They run 70% of the time on 1st down, 65% on 2nd down and on 3rd and short (1-3 yards) they’ve run it 14 out of 15 times in such situations and converted half of those rushes to first downs. An interesting nugget that I uncovered is that on 3rd and 10+, they’ve rushed 6 of 15 times (40%) but they’re averaging 20.7ypc on those 6 rushes. 
Odd. Personnel-wise, with Hunter iffy for this Saturday, the burden of the rushing workload will fall to SR RB Keith Toston. He’s averaging 5.69ypc and scored 4 times. SR RB Beau Johnson and FR RB Jeremy Smith also will get some touches, spelling Toston and perhaps Hunter. Of the two primary options, Hunter is the far more explosive one and Toston is the bruiser. And don’t forget about the QB, he can move too and is especially talented at setting up the play-action passing game with the running threat. This is a very dynamic offense that has a lot of experience. The offensive line has three senior starters who have played a lot of ball together and their LT Russell Okung is a beast. They’re 2nd in the nation in sacks allowed with only 2 through 5 games. One of their Achilles heel’s is ball security – they’ve got a negative turnover margin, having lost 7 fumbles and been picked off four times.It’s pretty basic – OSU will run and run and run to set up their efficient and, some would argue, opportunistic (especially without Bryant) passing attack. The good news is that the Tigers have had a modicum of success against run-heavy teams. They held Nevada, now the top rushing team in the nation, 25% below their season average. Same with Illinois. Same with Nebraska. Mizzou must contain Robinson, bottle up the run as best they can and force the Cowboys into passing situations. Then the trick is to not get burned for big plays. With Hunter back at 100% and Bryant reinstated, that is a far bigger challenge than it is if both are out. Stay tuned to the latest on those two guys. To complicate matters, somewhat, on the Tiger defensive front, reserve LB Will Ebner is out indefinitely with a torn meniscus (knee). He will for sure miss the OSU game and possibly Texas as well. Ebner’s one of the main physical presences of the Tiger LB corps. Dude lays the wood.
Oklahoma State Defense
The Cowboys are “OK” on rush D (116ypg, 37th nationally, 6th in conference) but mediocre at best in terms of points allowed (23.2ppg, 53rd nationally, 8th in conference) and passing defense (241ypg, 89th nationally, 10th in conference). In total D, they’re dead in the middle nationally (60th) and 8th in the conference allowing a tick under 358ypg. On a per-play basis, they allow 4.8ypp, good for 6th in the Big XII. They have a major-league playmaker in Perrish Cox in their secondary. He’s pretty much been a shut-down corner for them and is also a huge factor in the return game. He’s not as explosive as Bryant on punt returns but he’s no chump. Cox has broken up 9 passes thus far this year. That’s a big-time number. Their defense is doing a much better job of getting to the QB this year, doubling their sacks per game from a year ago. Perhaps more importantly, the bulk of their sacks are coming on defensive line pressure, not blitzes. This is critical in beating pass-heavy teams like Mizzou. Getting pressure with your front four increases your chances for success tremendously in defending against the pass. Look out for DE Richetti Jones for the Pokes – he’s been in the backfield a ton this year. In the OSU loss to Houston, they failed to sack Cougar QB Case Keenum on any of the 46 times he dropped back to throw the ball. To be fair, though, they did hold him to his second lowest passing output on the season (a mere 366 yards and 3 TDs – it’s all relative). Yes, the Cowboys have seen some a couple pretty good passing attacks this year: Houston is 1st in the nation and Texas A&M is 9th. Mizzou entered the Nebraska game as the 10th ranked passing offense in the country,
but after the waterlogged affair in Columbia last Thursday, their ypg dropped from 310 to 275, and their national rank suffered accordingly, slipping to 18th. The Cowboys have a new defensive coordinator in Bill Young who has them playing a much more disciplined brand of football…very similar to Mizzou’s own Dave Steckel with the Tiger D. OSU is stingy on 3rd and 4th down rushing attempts, holding opponents to just 29 yards on 31 attempts for 7 first downs (0.9ypc; 23% conversion rate). Opponents are passing 52% of the time against OSU. On 1st down, it’s the opposite, with OSU foes running the ball 53% of the time. On 2nd down they’re passing 53% of the time against the Pokes. On 3rd and 4th, it’s 3/2 in favor of the pass. Opponents ypa on 3rd and 4th down is 7.8, which is promising for Mizzou’s inevitable 3rd downs after they go zone-read for gain of 2 on first down, and incompletion on 2nd down. (There I go again…) Actually, while we’re on the subject of the anemic rushing attack of the Tigers…one thing you CANNOT say is that Mizzou isn’t committed to the run. They’ve run 372 plays on the year and exactly half of them have officially been rushing attempts (7 sacks). It is simply a matter of execution. On 1st down, their commitment peaks as they’re rushing the ball 55% of the time for 4.1ypc. By 2nd down, they’re rushing 53% of the time for 2.9ypc. That’s a pretty significant dropoff in the ypc average – nearly 30%. By the time 3rd down rolls around, Mizzou is throwing the ball 60% of the time. And why wouldn’t they? On the 77 third downs they’ve had on the season, 47 of them have required 7+ yards for a first down (61%). Mizzou absolutely has to do better on first and second downs, regardless of the play-calling. I am having a hard time really putting my finger on the rushing woes. Some of it is scheme, some is playcalling. Some is the predictability of it all. I challenge you to name 4 distinct rushing plays the Tigers attempt – I am finding it difficult to recall anything but the zone-read…I don’t expect Blaine under center with a fullback and the I-formation but something’s clearly not working. Their overall 3.56ypc is as low as it’s been since at least 2003. I don’t want to turn into Texas Tech who has no qualms about passing 50x every game. Some are saying D-Wash just doesn’t look the same, he’s lost explosiveness, what have you. Some say the offensive line is weak at the point of attack. Some are saying the plays just take too long to develop. I don’t think D-Wash is washed up (pun somewhat intended) but I can’t disagree with any of the three major theories here. To me it’s a combination of all three and not necessarily the same primary reason each game. To be successful this Saturday night in Stillwater, Mizzou will have to run the ball. They have to get the O-Line playing better (4 holds against Nebraska!). And for the love of all that is holy, the Tigers need to get on the attack early. 
Their first drives of the game have been borderline atrocious. They scored on their first drive only once and that was a field goal in the Illinois game. Since then, they ran 4 plays for 4 yards against Bowling Green and punted; ran 3 plays for 1 total yard against Fordham and punted; ran 3 plays for zero yards against Nevada and punted (the returner, if you recall, muffed that one and Mizzou would recover and go onto kick a FG but still); and against Nebraska last week they ran 8 plays for 14 yards (hindered by a PI penalty on the Tigers) and punted…man it would be a huge boost if the Tigers came out guns-blazin’ and took it to the Pokes on their opening possession. That was a hallmark of the 2008 team. Special Teams
Cowboys have a great punter in Quinn Sharp - he leads the conference with nearly a 48 yard average. Jake Harry for the Tigers is no slouch (nearly 45 yards a kick) and certainly turned out to be a weapon against Nebraska. Grant Ressel, Mizzou’s kicker, has been solid thus far. This matchup’s about even but if Bryant is back, that changes everything.
How I think this will play out...
It’s getting redundant but it’s absolutely true. The team that can control the line of scrimmage will win this game. Period. Playmaker-wise, if both teams are at 100%, this year the talent edge goes to the Cowboys. But it’s looking like OSU will be without their top WR and top RB, which obviously is huge. Mizzou’s offensive line has to show up on Saturday. They’re not playing against a disruptive force like Suh this time around but expect OSU’s defensive line to be talented. If the line can keep Gabbert clean and Washington can find some creases, Mizzou will be able to move the ball. A major wild-card here is Blaine’s right ankle. I think you’ll be able to tell early on if he’s feeling OK by the playcalling. If they don’t take some medium-to-long shots early in the game or Blaine isn’t trying to make things happen with his legs, you know it’s a lingering issue. He and the team are downplaying the severity but I know what I saw both during the Nebraska game and some of the photos and video in the aftermath. Wasn’t pretty. The Tigers on defense cannot get sucked in and torched on a big play. I think they’ll have some decent success against the OSU rushing game but one play-action bomb for a score can change things in a hurry. Mizzou can’t get impatient and undisciplined on D. Robinson is a good QB but he thrives when he’s a threat to run, even though he hasn’t enjoyed as much success doing that this year. Mizzou’s two games against rushing QBs have shown mixed results. Juice was awful in the opening week. Kaepernick nearly pulled enough plays off to win the game in Reno. I think Mizzou comes into Stillwater pissed off after letting last week’s game slip through their rain-soaked fingers. I think the Tigers’ main offensive strength matches up nicely against OSU’s apparent weakness. I think we’ll see plenty of players with chips on their shoulders. Mizzou and OSU have played some very memorable games over the last 10-15 years and it always seems to be close. Mizzou’s record in Stillwater in the last 2 decades might surprise some people, see below…I can justify this pick because it’s made under the assumption that Dez Bryant is out and Kendall Hunter is as well…and the weather is not calling for 40 days and nights of rain. God I’m still so pissed. I’ll go 34-31 Tigers in this one. Admittedly, this is factoring in no small amount of hypothetical in favor of the boys in Black and Gold.
TIDBITS TO DOMINATE WATERCOOLER CONVERSATION…AND LIFE IN GENERAL
- In Mizzou’s last three trips to Sweetwater, they’re 3-0 with an average margin of victory of 3.67ppg
- Last four meetings with OSU and 7 of the last 8 have been decided by a TD or less
- It’s homecoming at OSU this weekend – the first homecoming game was at the University of Missouri in 1911. Oh sweet, delicious irony.
- OSU Coach Mike Gundy is A MAN. He’s 40!!! OK, he’s 42 now. (Still love hearing that clip from the 2007 interview)
- Dez Bryant is Tiger reserve RB Gilbert Moye’s cousin. Fairly confident I read that somewhere.
- Second consecutive game for the Tigers against a QB named “Zac” with that spelling.
- This Zac is better than that Zac which kind of scares me
- Stillwater, OK is the home to Eskimo Joe’s, a place I must visit before I depart this planet
- Stillwater is also name of the fictional band in the fantastic 2000 film, “Almost Famous”. I cannot believe that movie is nearly a decade old. If you haven’t seen it, you’re missing out. Awesome!
Cowboys have a great punter in Quinn Sharp - he leads the conference with nearly a 48 yard average. Jake Harry for the Tigers is no slouch (nearly 45 yards a kick) and certainly turned out to be a weapon against Nebraska. Grant Ressel, Mizzou’s kicker, has been solid thus far. This matchup’s about even but if Bryant is back, that changes everything.
How I think this will play out...
It’s getting redundant but it’s absolutely true. The team that can control the line of scrimmage will win this game. Period. Playmaker-wise, if both teams are at 100%, this year the talent edge goes to the Cowboys. But it’s looking like OSU will be without their top WR and top RB, which obviously is huge. Mizzou’s offensive line has to show up on Saturday. They’re not playing against a disruptive force like Suh this time around but expect OSU’s defensive line to be talented. If the line can keep Gabbert clean and Washington can find some creases, Mizzou will be able to move the ball. A major wild-card here is Blaine’s right ankle. I think you’ll be able to tell early on if he’s feeling OK by the playcalling. If they don’t take some medium-to-long shots early in the game or Blaine isn’t trying to make things happen with his legs, you know it’s a lingering issue. He and the team are downplaying the severity but I know what I saw both during the Nebraska game and some of the photos and video in the aftermath. Wasn’t pretty. The Tigers on defense cannot get sucked in and torched on a big play. I think they’ll have some decent success against the OSU rushing game but one play-action bomb for a score can change things in a hurry. Mizzou can’t get impatient and undisciplined on D. Robinson is a good QB but he thrives when he’s a threat to run, even though he hasn’t enjoyed as much success doing that this year. Mizzou’s two games against rushing QBs have shown mixed results. Juice was awful in the opening week. Kaepernick nearly pulled enough plays off to win the game in Reno. I think Mizzou comes into Stillwater pissed off after letting last week’s game slip through their rain-soaked fingers. I think the Tigers’ main offensive strength matches up nicely against OSU’s apparent weakness. I think we’ll see plenty of players with chips on their shoulders. Mizzou and OSU have played some very memorable games over the last 10-15 years and it always seems to be close. Mizzou’s record in Stillwater in the last 2 decades might surprise some people, see below…I can justify this pick because it’s made under the assumption that Dez Bryant is out and Kendall Hunter is as well…and the weather is not calling for 40 days and nights of rain. God I’m still so pissed. I’ll go 34-31 Tigers in this one. Admittedly, this is factoring in no small amount of hypothetical in favor of the boys in Black and Gold.
TIDBITS TO DOMINATE WATERCOOLER CONVERSATION…AND LIFE IN GENERAL
- In Mizzou’s last three trips to Sweetwater, they’re 3-0 with an average margin of victory of 3.67ppg
- Last four meetings with OSU and 7 of the last 8 have been decided by a TD or less
- It’s homecoming at OSU this weekend – the first homecoming game was at the University of Missouri in 1911. Oh sweet, delicious irony.
- OSU Coach Mike Gundy is A MAN. He’s 40!!! OK, he’s 42 now. (Still love hearing that clip from the 2007 interview)
- Dez Bryant is Tiger reserve RB Gilbert Moye’s cousin. Fairly confident I read that somewhere.
- Second consecutive game for the Tigers against a QB named “Zac” with that spelling.
- This Zac is better than that Zac which kind of scares me
- Stillwater, OK is the home to Eskimo Joe’s, a place I must visit before I depart this planet
- Stillwater is also name of the fictional band in the fantastic 2000 film, “Almost Famous”. I cannot believe that movie is nearly a decade old. If you haven’t seen it, you’re missing out. Awesome!
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