When Nebraska has the ball…
The main players for the Huskers at the skill positions are Jr QB Zac Lee and Jr RB Roy Helu Jr. Lee has been steady in his first four games as the starter under center. He’s passed for 927 yards and 7 TDs against 3 INTs. His 8.8 ypa is 3rd in conference (Gabbert and OSU’s Robinson are tops at 8.9) and his 64.8% completion rate is 6th. He has to be the front-runner for 1st team all Sun Belt as he lit up Florida Atlantic, Arkansas State and Louisiana-Lafayette in the Husker’s three wins. In the loss at VT, he struggled mightily, going 11 for 30 (36.7%) for only 136 yards, no TDs and 2 picks. I am not suggesting that Mizzou is the defensive equivalent the Hokies but I WOULD suggest that they’re better than any of the other three Husker opponents. My point being that Zac Lee can be rattled. This will be his second start away from home and he still has a ton to prove. Helu, on the other hand, is the real deal. He’s as good as any back in the Big XII that Mizzou will see this year with perhaps the only exception being Tolston of Okie State.
He’s the conference’s leading rusher to this point (116 ypg) and averaging 6.36 per carry which puts him tops in conference for anybody averaging 10+ carries a game. In contrast to Lee, he had a pretty solid game in Blacksburg, carrying 28 times for 169 yards but failed to find the end zone as did Nebraska’s entire team. Both were career highs for Helu. He’s got 5 rushing TDs on the year and 11 catches for 91 yards without a score. Nebraska has really spread the ball around to their receiving targets this year. Helu and Jr TE Mike McNeill (a St. Louis kid) lead the team with 11 catches each, followed by Jr WR Niles Paul who has 10. (Paul is also the team’s return-man, averaging 10 on punts and 24 on kickoffs.) So WR Curenski Gilleylen leads the team with 255 receiving yards on just 8 catches. He’s not listed as a starter but clearly they look to him as a deep threat. Two seniors round out the primary targets: Chris Brooks (another St. Louisan) and Menelik Holt. McNeill is the only receiver who has more than 1 TD on the year. The Huskers don’t have a receiver averaging even as much as 65 yards per game but they have seven targets averaging 20+. It appears that either Lee is comfortable distributing the ball all over the place or they really don’t have a “cut above” playmaker on their roster. My guess is that they view their receivers as sort of an interchangeable, homogenous pool of guys and substitute freely. Their lack of what would appear to be a go-to guy (like Danario for Gabbert) might prove to be problematic. Then again – the defense can’t key on one receiver to designate as the guy they CANNOT let beat them. The offensive line seems small for a Nebraska team but maybe they’re trending to lighter, quicker linemen. They average just a shade under 300 lbs.Nebraska is 6th in total offense in the conference (19th nationally) with 440 yards per game and 3rd in scoring (9th nationally) at just under 40 points per game. Their 7 yards per play is tops in the Big XII and good for 4th in the nation. They are a fairly balanced team, running the ball just a tick under 52% of their offensive plays. They rush about 60% of the time on first down, and why wouldn’t they with Helu shredding the Sun Belt the entire month of September. They’re averaging 7.1ypc on 1st down rushes. On 2nd down they drop to a 46% rushing team, averaging 5.1 per carry. On 3rd and 4th downs, they run the ball 42% of the time and that ypc average plummets to 1.7. Nebraska has spent much of their season playing ahead and in fact more than half of their offensive plays have occurred when they’re up 8 or more points. However, when the game is close, within 7 points either way, completion percentage drops to 54.7%. Their rushing game is steady regardless of the score, ripping off 5.7 ypc. What I kind of find interesting is that they’re still a 50/50 passing team when up 15+. I guess conventional wisdom would be to run the ball, kill clock, etc but they seem to be just as willing to put it in the air. Mizzou absolutely must work hard to shut down Helu and the rushing game and put the Huskers in 3rd and long. Nebraska has only converted 4 of 13 “3rd and long” (7+ yards) situations into first downs on the season. Also, Helu did not practice on Tuesday – Coach Pelini wouldn’t confirm nor deny that it was the flu, just that he wasn’t feeling well and was sent home from practice to rest. I don’t know, might be gamesmanship but since when does “not feeling well” excuse one of your top players from the last legitimate practice in advance of the biggest game of the year? Something sounds a little amiss here. For what it’s worth, Helu’s backup is Fr RB Rex Burkhead who has gone 18/84/1 thus far this year.
Mizzou is 8th in the Big XII (59th nationally) in total defense, allowing 352 ypg and 5th in conference (21st nationally) in scoring defense, giving up 15.5ppg. Mizzou allows 4.8 yards per play, which puts them in the top third nationally. As opposed to a year ago, opponents are fairly balanced in their attack against the Tigers, opting to pass the ball only slightly more overall. Last year, opponents attempted more passes against Missouri than any other in the nation (582). In terms of attempts per game, opponents are trying about 4 fewer passes this season but the real statistical improvement has come in the yards per attempt. In 2008 opposing passers were enjoying nearly 7 ypa and that figure has dropped to 5.7 this season. Completion percentage is down a bit as well. Obviously, the 2008 numbers were after a full conference slate, a conference championship game and the bowl win, but take it for what it’s worth. I think there’s solid evidence that the pass defense is improved from a season ago. The rushing defense is middle-of-the-pack nationally and lower 1/3 in conference, largely due to Nevada’s 218 yards on the ground last game. The numbers are down slightly from a year ago and much is attributed to the loss of NFL first rounder Ziggy Hood. Though not big on the stat sheet, there’s something to be said for taking up 2-3 blockers and freeing up linebackers and other DL to make plays. Mizzou has done a great job thus far this year of avoiding big plays, giving up just two completions over 25 yards (as opposed to 30 in 14 games last year). On the rushing side, they’ve only allowed one run of 20+ (13 a season ago). Again, not a perfect “apples to apples” comparison at this point in the season but it’s encouraging for Tiger fans.
So what will the strategy be on Thursday night for each unit when the Huskers have the ball? I would expect Nebraska go to their bread and butter, Helu, and try to get the ground game going. Long, sustained drives that methodically march downfield and chew up the clock are exactly what you need to quiet a hostile crowd in this kind of game. Another reason I think they’ll opt for this attack initially is that a significant amount of rain is forecast for Columbia throughout the game. It’s more difficult to pass the ball than run it in the rain. I expect Lee to use play action to find some big plays in the passing game but generally I believe they’ll be fairly conservative. For Mizzou, it’s simple. I think you have to control Helu and make Lee beat you. He showed he couldn’t do it in Blacksburg and I think the environment will be even more hostile in Columbia on Thursday. Tigers must tackle well and hold their own at the line of scrimmage – something they were having some problems with in Nevada at times. I smell a big game from Spoon and one of the Smith boys.
When Missouri has the ball…
If there’s one Nebraska defensive player you’ve heard of, chances are it’s their Sr DT Ndamukong Suh (last name pronounced “Sue”).
He leads their team in tackles with 6.5 per game as well as tackles for loss (4.5), sacks (2.0) and pass breakups (6). It’s very very odd for a defensive lineman to lead his team in tackles, a testament to how dominant he is. Sue is as good as Mizzou will see this season on the defensive interior and the Mizzou offensive line will have their hands full with him. Think Glenn Dorsey from LSU in 2007 before the back issue slowed him down late in the season. Sue is clearly a guy to keep tabs on before every snap. He could make it a long night for Gabbert and the Mizzou offense. Another name many will recognize is former Mizzou recruit (and native) RS Fr LB Will Compton. Compton was the 2nd best player coming out of Missouri in 2008 (behind Gabbert) and when Gabbert de-committed from Nebraska in the midst of the Callahan saga, many thought Compton might jump ship too and become a Tiger. Apparently the Husker assistant that showed up at his home with a temporary “Compton” tattoo really resonated with young Will and he ended up a ‘Sker. Will the The thrill is likely to be one of the only linebackers on the field as he’s expected to play in both the nickel (5 defensive backs, 2 LBs) and dime (6 DBs, 1 LB) packages. By all accounts that are somewhat independent and not originating in Lincoln or Omaha, the Husker secondary and linebacking corps are suspect and they certainly haven’t been tested like they will be on Thursday night. None of their previous opponents can hold a candle to what Mizzou will bring in the passing game. Really don’t need to throw a lot of numbers at you to justify that.
Call it the eyeball test.The Huskers have held opponents to a salty 7.0 points per game, tops in the nation. I think if they played the entire Sun Belt conference, that number might hold but I expect it to go up considerably after Thursday night. It should be noted that their three Sun Belt opponents have combined for exactly one win against a D-1 opponent on the year so it’s not like we’re talking about the cream of the crop of that conference. Overall, Nebraska is 4th in the Big XII in total defense (21st nationally), allowing 285.5 yards per game. They’re only allowing 170 yards passing but, again, they haven’t seen a passing attack like this, not even close. Opponents are rushing on the Huskers far more than they’re passing on 1st and 2nd down but enjoying more success when they do pass the ball on these early downs. On 3rd and 4th down, Nebraska’s yards allowed per carry goes up to 4.6 but yards per pass attempt drops to 3.6 as opponents are passing nearly 70% of the time on these later downs. It should also be noted that Nebraska’s pass completion percentage allowed on 3rd down is just 39% and 25% on 4th down. The Husker rush D doesn’t seem to relax, regardless of the score as they’re allowing 3.1 yards per carry when they’re up by 8+ as well as when games are close (within 7 either way). I could slice and dice their numbers all day long but it’s really difficult to draw solid conclusions as their level of competition, outside of Virginia Tech, is pretty weak. Not that Furman and Bowling Green are world-beaters, but the Tigers did play a neutral game against what was supposed to be a good Illinois squad, and then took a trip out to Reno to play a Nevada squad that has been an exceptional rushing team the last two years, despite their early struggles this season. I feel that, at this point in the season, Mizzou has been tested more than the Huskers. I’ll admit that their game in Blacksburg was a tougher game than either of Mizzou’s games away from Faurot, but there’s something to be said for the Tigers playing two fairly solid (on paper at least) teams in the non-conference away from their home field. OK, I’ll step off of my soap box for a second.
Switching over to the Tigers’ offensive scheme and what we can expect them to do against the Huskers…obviously Missouri’s early-season rushing “struggles” have been well-documented. It’s a bit misleading because even though the only rushed for 78 yards in the Nevada win and are currently getting
“only” 143 yards per game (60th nationally, 10th in Big XII), entering that game in Reno they were rushing for 164 per game. The passing game was so open against Nevada that Mizzou didn’t need to run the ball that much and I firmly believe Gabbert could’ve thrown for 500-525 yards had they decided to call enough pass plays. I agree that the ground game needs to close the gap somewhat with the passing attack but to characterize it as a weakness is a bit of an overstatement. Not as strong as last year, sure. I think the offensive line will benefit tremendously from the extra time off this week not only to get healthy but to gain a bit more cohesion. We shall see. De’Vion Moore should be back this week to help out back there with Washington and Lawrence. It’s interesting to me that this is an issue after going through all the off-season, summer workouts and the first few days figuring the ground game was one area of the offense we could rely on. Gabbert has been about as great as anybody could’ve imagined but there’s still room for improvement. His numbers speak for themselves (66% completion rate, 1,161 yards, 11 TDs, zero picks, 168.57 QB rating to lead the conference) but I am still a little concerned with how he tends to lock on his primary receiver, resulting in him forcing some balls into tight spots (TWSS) and missing other wide-open receivers from time to time. He’s got that rocket arm but I’m nervous his reliance on it to always bail him out will eventually lead to some picks. I mean it’s bound to happen so might as well prepare for it. Another slight concern is his tendency to abandon the pocket before he needs to. Premature evacuation is something that eventually gets corrected as he continues to gain trust with the offensive linemen and their protection. I love his escapability but there’s a difference between running out of the pocket to avoid pressure as opposed to leaving it early before the play has a chance to develop. It’s almost like he’s not quite yet comfortable sitting back there. This is COMPLETE nitpicking but I don’t want him to get out of the pocket and get crunched. Jared Perry is off to a great start and is the first Tiger to catch TD passes in each of the first four games to start a season. Danario Alexander has become a strong contender for all conference and is showing what a playmaker he is when healthy. Wes Kemp has been a great deep threat as well. Andrew Jones hasn’t come close to the production of Coffman and Rucker, his predecessors, but he’s making the catches he should. Backup tailback Lawrence made one of the most memorable catches of the year against Nevada on a very risky throw on the move by Gabbert. Overall, the passing game is looking pretty good. Unlike last year, Mizzou hasn’t gotten out to a very fast start offensively, often taking three to four possessions to start clicking. That’s fine in non-conference when you have a clear-cut talent advantage in most games. As the second season begins, Mizzou cannot afford to get behind early or start really playing until the 2nd quarter. Gabbert has been money in the 2nd half, completing passes at a 77% clip, averaging 12.7 yards per attempt and 9 of those 43 attempts (21%) have gone for 25+ yards. Clearly when the kid gets settled in, he’s pretty lethal. Just need him, and the rest of the O, to get things going a little quicker.How I see this playing out…
I think the intangibles of this game are going to be huge. I’ve already mentioned the forecasted rain and it probably helps Nebraska more than Mizzou. Wet weather magnifies mistakes, especially in the kicking game and in terms of turnovers. Rain or shine (well, it won’t shine since it’s a night game) the crowd will be in an absolute frenzy for this one. The Huskers can downplay it all they want but this will be a loud, raucous group. It’s a huge game in terms of controlling the Big XII North – the loser is essentially in a two-game hole. I think you’ll see the Tiger defense start out a lot like they did in 2007 just laying the wood all over the field. Expect an early penalty – I just think somebody’s going to try to set the tone with a huge hit that draws a flag. I think Nebraska will be able to sustain a few drives early on behind the running of Helu and the controlled passing game. I think they’ll also sputter as they approach the Tiger red zone, just as they did in Blacksburg (5 field goals accounted for all the scoring). On a wet, slippery night, ball security will be at a premium. I think Mizzou will try to air it out early to soften up the Nebraska D and then let the RBs do their thing. I expect Nebraska to play a lot of nickel defense and try to get pressure with just their front four. I predict they won’t find the success they’re looking for. And why is that? Because I saw them try to do that at VT on the Hokies’ final TD and Tyrod Taylor sat back there for probably 8 seconds before he hit the game winner. This game is absolutely going to be won at the line of scrimmage. The Tigers are still the more talented team but the gap has closed from the last two years in my estimation. At the skill positions, Mizzou appears to be ahead of the Huskers. But that makes little difference if you can’t control the line of scrimmage. I think the layoff helps the Tigers work out the kinks and they play more mistake-free football than Nebraska to pull out a big win in Columbia. Tigers 33-19 over Nebraska.
TIDBITS TO HELP YOU DOMINATE WATER COOLER CONVERSATION
- Huskers are 2-17 in their last 19 road games against ranked opponents, dating back to the 1997 season.
- Mizzou has beaten Nebraska 3 consecutive times in Columbia, scoring 41 points in each victory
- Munir Prince will miss this game for the Tigers with a hamstring injury
No comments:
Post a Comment