Texas’s and Oklahoma’s of the world doesn’t lie in the skill positions, but on the offensive and defensive lines. Last year, Texas kept Colt McCoy clean, allowing him to go 29-32 for 337 yards and 2 TDs (another on the ground). Bad bad memories. If the Nebraska game was a swift kick to the groin, and the Oklahoma State game was more of a drawn out painful experience, then perhaps the trend is telling us that the Texas game will be an “early club to the head” sort of ordeal. Could be. Texas’s offense isn’t as explosive as a year ago but I’d be lying if I said a 28 point Mizzou loss would surprise me terribly much, given where these two teams are right now. That said, here are 5 keys for Mizzou to have a shot in this one.1) Protect Gabbert – UT Defensive Coordinator is one of the best and he’ll give Gabbert all he can handle. Gabbert has to get rid of the ball on time and be decisive. With that gimpy ankle, don’t want him running around all day outside the pocket. I think this means fewer shots downfield and a more controlled passing game, kind of like what Chase Daniel used to run.
2) Take what’s there – Barring a 180 in Mizzou’s rushing offense and Texas’s rushing defense, Mizzou likely won’t be able to move the ball on the ground. The might surprise for a big play or two here and there but Texas leads the nation in rush D (36 yards per game) and the Tigers are in the bottom quartile. To the people calling for Mizzou to try to run the ball 50x, shorten the game, play for field position and hope for some trick plays or opportunities in special teams I say this: Do you enjoy pounding your head against a brick wall? I think the Tigers should use the short passing game as a pseudo running game and take calculated shots down the field to keep Texas honest. Gabbert also can’t be afraid to just throw it away and live for another play when things blow up.
3) Hold onto the ball – Mizzou is -5 in turnover margin in their two losses. To have a shot in this one, they CANNOT lose the turnover battle. The Tiger receivers need to do a better job of pulling the ball in when Gabbert puts it on them and cannot put the ball on the deck. McCoy has already thrown 7 picks on the year (vs 8 in all of 2008) and he’s thrown one in every single game. The Tiger D has to capitalize on those tipped passes or near-interceptions you see every week. Those HAVE TO BE CAUGHT by the boys in black and gold.
4) Start fast(er) – obviously it’s been established that this offense doesn’t get out of the gate as early as the 2008 edition. But I would argue that they’re perhaps more explosive. Clearly the Tigers have taken more shots downfield this year and who knows how the OSU game goes if Kemp holds onto that picture-perfect toss from Gabbert for a sure TD…I think if the Tigers get down 14-17 points early in this one, it’s over. This isn’t Bowling Green. To piggyback on that a bit…an opening drive TD would be a nice change. Haven’t seen one of those this year.5) Win 3rd down – the Tigers have done an AMAZING job of putting themselves in 3rd and long this year. Well over half of their 3rd downs have required 7+ yards. In such situations (3rd and 7+), Mizzou passes 84% of the time but only completes 49% of those passes and overall conversion success is a paltry 27%. When they attempt to rush the ball in those situations, they average 1.6ypc (of course, sacks factor in but still…). Mizzou converted 28% of 3rd downs against Nebraska and 20% vs OSU. In both games, their opponent had a better conversion rate (47% and 28% , respectively). Success on 3rd down is largely predicated on what
happens on 1st and 2nd so the Tigers have to get some good yardage on early downs to put themselves in a better position on 3rd. Normally the answer would be: RUN THE FOOTBALL MORE (Mizzou passed 20 more times than rushed against OSU – a huge tactical error in my estimation) – against the Horns, it’s just not going to work – have to dink and dunk and hopefully find a big play here and there. Easier said than done.
The bottom line is that Mizzou is still relatively young and inexperienced, particularly offensively with a true Sophomore QB playing with a bad wheel. We could play the “what if” game about how the last two games have gone but that’s the nature of sports, particularly at the amateur level. Mizzou is in a slump, to borrow a baseball term, but the 3rd ranked team in the country would hardly
qualify as a slumpbuster (Baylor, where are you when we need you?!?!?!?) I am generally as optimistic as they come but I just don’t see this one turning out well for Mizzou. I don’t think they’ll get blown out like a season ago, because I don’t think UT’s offense is quite what it was last year and the Tiger D is an improved unit. Total D has improved, through 6 games in both seasons, from 381ypg to 337ypg with the major difference being a 71 yard improvement in passing yards allowed. The offense, however, has taken a step backward, which was expected after all that left. It’s just a really tough task this week going against one of the most accurate passers in college football history, behind a sturdy O-Line...and we haven’t even begun to discuss the 11th year senior receiver for the Horns, Jordan Shipley. Seriously, that guy has been there forever. Kind of reminds me of the guard from Iowa State who seemed to have about a 7 year basketball career…the great Jake Sullivan. Texas will bring the best defense Mizzou’s seen all season…not looking too promising. I’ll call this one 38-24 Texas.
happens on 1st and 2nd so the Tigers have to get some good yardage on early downs to put themselves in a better position on 3rd. Normally the answer would be: RUN THE FOOTBALL MORE (Mizzou passed 20 more times than rushed against OSU – a huge tactical error in my estimation) – against the Horns, it’s just not going to work – have to dink and dunk and hopefully find a big play here and there. Easier said than done.The bottom line is that Mizzou is still relatively young and inexperienced, particularly offensively with a true Sophomore QB playing with a bad wheel. We could play the “what if” game about how the last two games have gone but that’s the nature of sports, particularly at the amateur level. Mizzou is in a slump, to borrow a baseball term, but the 3rd ranked team in the country would hardly
qualify as a slumpbuster (Baylor, where are you when we need you?!?!?!?) I am generally as optimistic as they come but I just don’t see this one turning out well for Mizzou. I don’t think they’ll get blown out like a season ago, because I don’t think UT’s offense is quite what it was last year and the Tiger D is an improved unit. Total D has improved, through 6 games in both seasons, from 381ypg to 337ypg with the major difference being a 71 yard improvement in passing yards allowed. The offense, however, has taken a step backward, which was expected after all that left. It’s just a really tough task this week going against one of the most accurate passers in college football history, behind a sturdy O-Line...and we haven’t even begun to discuss the 11th year senior receiver for the Horns, Jordan Shipley. Seriously, that guy has been there forever. Kind of reminds me of the guard from Iowa State who seemed to have about a 7 year basketball career…the great Jake Sullivan. Texas will bring the best defense Mizzou’s seen all season…not looking too promising. I’ll call this one 38-24 Texas.
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