10 Missouri (22-10, 10-6 Big 12) vs 7 Clemson (21-10, 9-7 ACC)
Different format – start with Clemson personnel and then move into other stuff. Don’t judge me.
STARTERS
Trevor Booker, Sr F (6-7, 240) – lefty who has started every single game in his Tiger career, First Team all ACC, this is their guy to stop, 8 double doubles this season, 31 for his career. He will be a handful (understatement). Not a threat from outside but might pull the occasional shot from deep (1+ per game). FT% way down from last year (71%-59% ) A/T way up (0.92-1.27). Random Stat: Clemson 10-1 when he gets 4+ OR’s; also 10-1 when he makes 4+ FT’s
Demontez Stitt, Jr PG (6-2, 175) – team leader in assists, streaky shooter (see: English, Kim); moves to 2-guard if sub Andre Young’s in there with him. Random Stat: Clemson 16-1 when Stitt has 3+ dimes; Random Trivia: Turned 21 on Tues. Hope he’s still hungover.
Tanner Smith, So SG (6-5, 220) – shooting guard who’s not a great shooter. However, when he hits 50% or better, Clemson is 12-1 (random stat)
David Potter, Sr F (6-6, 215) – 1st year starter, good defender, seen production climb every year, most shots from deep, though not a great shooter (36% FG, 38% 3P) Can find himself in foul trouble. Never gets to the foul line. Random Trivia: Oldest player on the team (23) – shares b-day with Jerai Grant which is cute when they hit Chuck E. Cheese and team up on air hockey.
Jerai Grant, Jr F/C (6-8, 220) – good shot-blocker and on the O-glass, high pct shooter (64%), fouls are a major issue. Clemson is only 3-5 when he has 4+ fouls. Son of Harvey, nephew of Horace (NBA). Played in 2006 KMOX Shootout in STL for DeMatha (MD) and had 19pt/21reb. Random Stat: Clemson 8-3 when Grant scores in double figures.
BENCH
Andre Young, Soph PG (5-9, 170) – 3pt shooter (5 attempts/game – 36% not stellar but OK); best A/T on team at 1.32; 26mpg off the bench, most steals on team. Very capable backup PG who gets starter minutes but overall, shot needs to develop.
Noel Johnson, Fr G/F (6-6, 190) – highly touted frosh, likes the 3; former USC signee; needs to fill out. Random Stat: has attempted (ATTEMPTED) a free throw in only THREE games this year. That’s weird for a guy averaging 15mpg.
Devin Booker, Fr F/C (6-8, 235) – younger brother of Trevor. Best FG% among ACC freshmen (57%). Random Trivia: sick and tired of being compared to his brother; just wants to go into his bedroom and make paintings that are sexual and violent
Milton Jennings, Fr F (6-9, 225) – McD’s AA – hasn’t done a whole lot this year. Minutes down lately.
Clemson forces a lot of turnovers, like Mizzou, but they are careless with the ball on their own end. On the year they have more turnovers than assists. This is a big red flag: ball security is at a premium in the NCAA tournament when quantity of possessions is generally shrunk to some extent. They’ve committed 10+ turnovers in every game this year and there’s no reason to expect them to magically take care of the ball appreciably better against Mizzou’s press. Look for 15+ turnovers out of Clemson in this one. The big statistical mismatch is in rebounding, particularly when Clemson misses shots. They’re a pretty good offensive rebounding team with guys like Booker and Grant crashing the glass, whereas Missouri has had problems all season corralling opponent’s misses. And Clemson, hardly a dead-eye shooting team, especially from deep, will miss their fair share of shots. The magic number here for Mizzou is 35. The Tigers (MU) are 18-2 when they get 35+ rebounds. I won’t charge you for that one. The defensive key in this game, from a personnel standpoint, will be to keep Trevor Booker from absolutely exploding. He is a marquee player in a power conference and I expect Ramsey to start out defending him but it could be Bowers. The concern with Bowers guarding a dynamic scorer like Booker is that he’s prone to fouling and he could find himself on the bench for the rest of the first half by the 2nd TV timeout. I don’t think Mizzou can afford to risk that. Ramsey moves well for a big man but is he quick enough to stay with Booker, who Clemson Coach Oliver Purnell plays on the wing from time to time? That’s something to watch out for. I think Booker will remind Mizzou fans a lot of Texas standout Damion James. Similar build, minus the beard. Both double-double machines but James is definitely more of an outside threat. Mizzou should be able to relatively neutralize the Clemson guards with Tiller and Taylor, plus backups Denmon and Dixon marking Stitt, Smith and Young. English will likely draw Potter out of the chute. I would gently suggest that the Tigers drop into a zone from time to time to force Clemson to shoot over the top. They’re very good from 2pt range, Booker and Grant in particular, not so much from deep, though capable of getting hot – they’ve hit 8 or more threes 12 times on the season (10-2 in those games). Zone defense also helps protect from a foul standpoint, which is big in the absence of Safford. Steve Moore’s going to have to play 10-12 quality minutes and be a monster on the glass in his limited time. And, of course, Mizzou’s going to have to knock down some shots, which has been seemingly impossible at times lately. In the four full games since Safford went down they’ve shot 36% from the field, 23% from deep, barely eking out one win in that span, a game which took OT and three ridiculous shots by Zaire Taylor (by the way, an APB for the Chris Rock doppelganger – where have you been dude?) Moreover, during that span their A/T is 0.84 and they’re losing the rebounding margin by nearly 9/game. This does not bode particularly well.
The bottom line in this one is that both teams are eerily similar. Neither shoots particularly well, both will turn you over, both want to get out and run, both are inconsistent and therefore capable of catching fire and blowing you out…or capable of going ice cold and punishing the rim (not in a good way). Clemson has the sure-fire go-to guy that Mizzou lacks but Mizzou’s better at taking care of the ball and distributing the offense. The Tigers have to rebound in this one, especially on the defensive end. They cannot allow Clemson to get a bunch of 2nd chance put-backs. If this comes down to foul shots, Mizzou has the edge. Clemson neither gets to the line very frequently, nor shoots well when they get there. This should be an entertaining game to watch unless you’re a die-hard fan of 50-point defensive, half-court struggles (see: 90% of Big 10 games). I am not a fan of such tempo but will admit that watching extremely sloppy basketball kind of sucks too. This will not be easy but I think Mizzou got a good draw and this game will be played at a pace they tend to excel at and they pull it together, for one game (and one game only) and extend their stay in Buffalo with a 74-71 victory over Clemson.
M-I-Z…
Friday, March 19, 2010
Friday, February 26, 2010
Missouri (21-7, 9-4) at Kansas State (23-4, 10-3)
Thoughts from the last few games…
- Marcus Denmon is ridiculous. It’s been great to watch him progress this year. He’s got a confident outside shot and has done really well of late taking the ball to the rim. It’s exciting to watch his development. I would, however, caution him from attempting another breakaway dunk.
- Kim English is a dynamic, dangerous player when he takes the ball to the basket and doesn’t settle for jumpers. His “Lord that was a terrible shot” tendency has decreased significantly of late. Plus, he might be THE one player on the roster that can absolutely take over a game if he gets hot…Denmon closing quickly.
- This is the JT Tiller we thought we’d see all year. He very nearly had Missouri’s first ever triple double against Colorado. Kind of bummed he didn’t get there. If he plays like this the rest of the year, the Tigers are a much better squad
- Keith Ramsey’s contribution on both ends cannot go unnoticed. He’s been a “right place, right time” guy of late with a flurry of offensive put-backs and seems to have placed an extra emphasis on rebounding with 25 boards in his past three games. He’s also blocked a pair of shots in each of the past three. Oh, and the guy plays the second most minutes on the team in conference games behind Zaire Taylor. “Keef” has been great!
- You can’t help but be impressed with the balance on this team. On any given night, any one of 6 or 7 guys can legitimately go for 20+ points and they really seem to be buying into the “playing together” philosophy at the right time.
- Tigers have balance not only in personnel but in the way they win. They beat Texas by dominating the free-throw competition; they blew out Nebraska and Colorado by shooting remarkably well, especially from deep. In all wins, they force turnovers and converted them into points. In those 3 wins, the Tigers enjoyed 65 points off of opponent turnovers.
- Mizzou is averaging 13 offensive rebounds in conference play and it seems that there are 3 or 4 per game that come at key times (see: Ramsey, Keith). This somewhat makes up for their relative weakness on the defensive glass.
- It seems Mizzou has placed a definite emphasis on their “inside-out” game. They don’t have traditional back-to-the-basket, low-post threats but they’re making the effort to get the ball in the paint, either by dribble-drives or passing, then kicking it out to the shooters. When Mizzou struggles, it’s normally because they become satisfied with the outside shots, miss a bunch, don’t get boards, can’t set the press and things snowball from there.
- The Tigers suffered a huge loss this week when Justin Safford tore his ACL early in the Colorado game. His loss won’t look tremendous statistically but the minutes and some of the intangibles are going to be tough to replace. Expect Larry Bowers to start, Steve Moore to see an increase in minutes and I think John Underwood will get a look off the bench once per half as that fourth big.
Looking ahead to Kansas State…
Mizzou was able to knock off the Wildcats in the conference opener this year in large part due to their forwards/center playing poorly and ours playing so well. To refresh, the frontcourt vs KSU bigs: Scoring margin +11; Rebounding deficit at only -3 and perhaps the stat of the game: Mizzou forwards committed 13 fewer fouls than their KSU counterparts. Also, the Wildcats only dished out 6 assists in that contest, their fewest total in a full year. Kansas State still gets to the foul line a ton, still doesn’t shoot terribly well when they get there. They are extremely strong on the offensive glass and shoot pretty well from the field. They are prone to turning the ball over and putting their opponents on the foul line as well. They are comfortable playing at Missouri’s pace. KSU has lost two conference home games (OSU and Kansas) by a combined 6 points. Reasons behind these home losses? The Wildcats shot 36% from the field vs OSU and Kansas beats everybody pretty much everywhere though KSU took the Jayhawks to overtime. My point is that they’re pretty stout at home and seem to either have to run into a premiere team (KU) or have an extremely off-night (OSU) if they’re going to lose. On the flip side, Nebraska gave them all they could handle last week in Manhattan so anything’s possible. Mark down a distinct home-court advantage for Kansas State on Saturday night.
There’s a lot at stake in this one. KSU has a legit chance at earning a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament with a stron finish in the regular season and the Big 12 tournament. They would likely have to beat KU at least once if not win the tournament. I think any loss to a team NOT named Kansas might eliminate them from consideration for that top-line. Winner of this one assumes second place in the conference standings and is likely a lock for a first round bye in the Big 12 tourney. A win guarantees a non-losing conference road record for Mizzou with one to play in Ames next week. K-State is also looking to cap off a perfect record in February which is obviously huge in the eyes of the NCAA seeding committee.
Personnel-wise, they are paced in the backcourt by senior G Denis Clemente and junior G Jacob Pullen. These guys are their two leading scorers (both top 10 in conference) and combined for 37 in Columbia but labored to do it – each guy missed 10 field goal attempts. They are basically the only two outside threats for KSU and each will pull it 7+ times from deep, well over half of their total attempts. They’re also the only two players that will make a free throw on a consistent basis. In my estimation, this is the best backcourt in the Big 12 with a shout-out to the boys in Baylor and that other team from the Sunflower state. Inside they start junior Fs Curtis Kelly and Dominique Sutton along with senior C Luis Colon. This has been their starting lineup for the duration of conference play. Colon is only averaging about 15 minutes and 3ppg – he is usually replaced by sophomore F Jamar Samuels as the game gets going. Samuels can give the Cats a double-double off the bench in any given game. Freshman G Rodney McGruder has emerged as the first guard off the bench for the Wildcats. He’s a plus defender whose offensive contribution, by all accounts, is just waiting for the opportunity to shine, but has not been necessary this year. He’s gone scoreless his last five games but averages 12ppg/7rpg in games where he plays 20+ minutes. So if he gets long stretches of clock, watch out. Another name off the bench is freshman F Wally Judge, who was AAU teammates with McGruder back in D.C. I get the sense that Coach Martin and the coaching staff was expecting more out of Judge in his freshman campaign and it would not surprise me at all if he had a big night against Mizzou.
How I see this one playing out…
The bottom line in this one will be rebounding. An undermanned Mizzou frontcourt, lacking one of their starting forwards, and is the worst defensive rebounding team in the conference, is pitted against one of the best offensive rebounding squads in the nation. Game, set, match. The only way I see the Tigers sneaking out of Manhattan with a win is if they have a phenomenal game on the glass or they shoot out of their minds and don’t create those rebounds. However, I don’t expect them to shoot well on the road in a hostile environment (and if you haven’t caught a KSU home-game this season, you’ve been missing one of the best home courts in the conference if not the country). See “tidbits” for what I think is an interesting stat on this… I believe the Mizzou guards will keep Pullen and Clemente from completely going off but I see Kansas State owning the paint on Saturday. Mizzou will force some turnovers and get their transition points but it’s not going to be enough. If, by some sheer stroke of luck, this turns into a free-throw shooting competition, I like the Tigers chances. I’ve thought this one was shaping up to be a loss for Mizzou all along and I’m now just trying to figure out the margin. I don’t think it’s going to be a terribly close contest but I certainly hope I’m way off on this. Official prediction: 82-70 Wildcats.
TIDBITS TO HELP YOU DOMINATE WATERCOOLER CONVERSATION AND GENERALLY LOOK SWEET AROUND LESS KNOWLEDGABLE SPORTS FANS…
- KSU is 6-1 in conference road games which is quite impressive. Guess where that one loss came.
- Mizzou is 21-8 in Big 12 play the last two seasons, second best in the league behind Kansas at 27-2.
- Tigers are on pace to break the Big 12 record for steals per game (11.2 currently vs Nebraska’s 10.9 figure during the ‘98-’99 season)
- Mizzou was 12-4 under the starting lineup of Tiller, Taylor, English, Ramsey and Safford. For the record, Tiller, Taylor, English, Ramsey and Bowers were the starters at Vanderbilt, a 6pt loss for the Tigers and the only time that bunch has started this season.
- Mizzou has won the “points in the paint” battle the last 6 games. In their 7 conference games prior to the current streak, they won it exactly once by a whopping two points.
- The CU victory marked the fourth time in conference play the Mizzou bench scored 40+; Tigers 7-0 in Big 12 games when their bench gets 30+.
- After starting out shooting 38% from the field in conference roadies, Mizzou has shot 47% in the last 3 games. 3 fewer made field goals on 46 fewer attempts. From deep, it’s a bump from 42% to 49%. I like, no LOVE, where this trend is going.
- Tigers winless in Manhattan since 2004, that’s 5 straight with an average margin of defeat at 19ppg. Yikes. Shot under 40% from the field in all but one of those.
- Justin Kutcher will provide the play-by-play for the ESPNU broadcast…no relation to Ashton.
M – I – Z…
- Marcus Denmon is ridiculous. It’s been great to watch him progress this year. He’s got a confident outside shot and has done really well of late taking the ball to the rim. It’s exciting to watch his development. I would, however, caution him from attempting another breakaway dunk.
- Kim English is a dynamic, dangerous player when he takes the ball to the basket and doesn’t settle for jumpers. His “Lord that was a terrible shot” tendency has decreased significantly of late. Plus, he might be THE one player on the roster that can absolutely take over a game if he gets hot…Denmon closing quickly.
- This is the JT Tiller we thought we’d see all year. He very nearly had Missouri’s first ever triple double against Colorado. Kind of bummed he didn’t get there. If he plays like this the rest of the year, the Tigers are a much better squad
- Keith Ramsey’s contribution on both ends cannot go unnoticed. He’s been a “right place, right time” guy of late with a flurry of offensive put-backs and seems to have placed an extra emphasis on rebounding with 25 boards in his past three games. He’s also blocked a pair of shots in each of the past three. Oh, and the guy plays the second most minutes on the team in conference games behind Zaire Taylor. “Keef” has been great!
- You can’t help but be impressed with the balance on this team. On any given night, any one of 6 or 7 guys can legitimately go for 20+ points and they really seem to be buying into the “playing together” philosophy at the right time.
- Tigers have balance not only in personnel but in the way they win. They beat Texas by dominating the free-throw competition; they blew out Nebraska and Colorado by shooting remarkably well, especially from deep. In all wins, they force turnovers and converted them into points. In those 3 wins, the Tigers enjoyed 65 points off of opponent turnovers.
- Mizzou is averaging 13 offensive rebounds in conference play and it seems that there are 3 or 4 per game that come at key times (see: Ramsey, Keith). This somewhat makes up for their relative weakness on the defensive glass.
- It seems Mizzou has placed a definite emphasis on their “inside-out” game. They don’t have traditional back-to-the-basket, low-post threats but they’re making the effort to get the ball in the paint, either by dribble-drives or passing, then kicking it out to the shooters. When Mizzou struggles, it’s normally because they become satisfied with the outside shots, miss a bunch, don’t get boards, can’t set the press and things snowball from there.
- The Tigers suffered a huge loss this week when Justin Safford tore his ACL early in the Colorado game. His loss won’t look tremendous statistically but the minutes and some of the intangibles are going to be tough to replace. Expect Larry Bowers to start, Steve Moore to see an increase in minutes and I think John Underwood will get a look off the bench once per half as that fourth big.
Looking ahead to Kansas State…
Mizzou was able to knock off the Wildcats in the conference opener this year in large part due to their forwards/center playing poorly and ours playing so well. To refresh, the frontcourt vs KSU bigs: Scoring margin +11; Rebounding deficit at only -3 and perhaps the stat of the game: Mizzou forwards committed 13 fewer fouls than their KSU counterparts. Also, the Wildcats only dished out 6 assists in that contest, their fewest total in a full year. Kansas State still gets to the foul line a ton, still doesn’t shoot terribly well when they get there. They are extremely strong on the offensive glass and shoot pretty well from the field. They are prone to turning the ball over and putting their opponents on the foul line as well. They are comfortable playing at Missouri’s pace. KSU has lost two conference home games (OSU and Kansas) by a combined 6 points. Reasons behind these home losses? The Wildcats shot 36% from the field vs OSU and Kansas beats everybody pretty much everywhere though KSU took the Jayhawks to overtime. My point is that they’re pretty stout at home and seem to either have to run into a premiere team (KU) or have an extremely off-night (OSU) if they’re going to lose. On the flip side, Nebraska gave them all they could handle last week in Manhattan so anything’s possible. Mark down a distinct home-court advantage for Kansas State on Saturday night.
There’s a lot at stake in this one. KSU has a legit chance at earning a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament with a stron finish in the regular season and the Big 12 tournament. They would likely have to beat KU at least once if not win the tournament. I think any loss to a team NOT named Kansas might eliminate them from consideration for that top-line. Winner of this one assumes second place in the conference standings and is likely a lock for a first round bye in the Big 12 tourney. A win guarantees a non-losing conference road record for Mizzou with one to play in Ames next week. K-State is also looking to cap off a perfect record in February which is obviously huge in the eyes of the NCAA seeding committee.
Personnel-wise, they are paced in the backcourt by senior G Denis Clemente and junior G Jacob Pullen. These guys are their two leading scorers (both top 10 in conference) and combined for 37 in Columbia but labored to do it – each guy missed 10 field goal attempts. They are basically the only two outside threats for KSU and each will pull it 7+ times from deep, well over half of their total attempts. They’re also the only two players that will make a free throw on a consistent basis. In my estimation, this is the best backcourt in the Big 12 with a shout-out to the boys in Baylor and that other team from the Sunflower state. Inside they start junior Fs Curtis Kelly and Dominique Sutton along with senior C Luis Colon. This has been their starting lineup for the duration of conference play. Colon is only averaging about 15 minutes and 3ppg – he is usually replaced by sophomore F Jamar Samuels as the game gets going. Samuels can give the Cats a double-double off the bench in any given game. Freshman G Rodney McGruder has emerged as the first guard off the bench for the Wildcats. He’s a plus defender whose offensive contribution, by all accounts, is just waiting for the opportunity to shine, but has not been necessary this year. He’s gone scoreless his last five games but averages 12ppg/7rpg in games where he plays 20+ minutes. So if he gets long stretches of clock, watch out. Another name off the bench is freshman F Wally Judge, who was AAU teammates with McGruder back in D.C. I get the sense that Coach Martin and the coaching staff was expecting more out of Judge in his freshman campaign and it would not surprise me at all if he had a big night against Mizzou.
How I see this one playing out…
The bottom line in this one will be rebounding. An undermanned Mizzou frontcourt, lacking one of their starting forwards, and is the worst defensive rebounding team in the conference, is pitted against one of the best offensive rebounding squads in the nation. Game, set, match. The only way I see the Tigers sneaking out of Manhattan with a win is if they have a phenomenal game on the glass or they shoot out of their minds and don’t create those rebounds. However, I don’t expect them to shoot well on the road in a hostile environment (and if you haven’t caught a KSU home-game this season, you’ve been missing one of the best home courts in the conference if not the country). See “tidbits” for what I think is an interesting stat on this… I believe the Mizzou guards will keep Pullen and Clemente from completely going off but I see Kansas State owning the paint on Saturday. Mizzou will force some turnovers and get their transition points but it’s not going to be enough. If, by some sheer stroke of luck, this turns into a free-throw shooting competition, I like the Tigers chances. I’ve thought this one was shaping up to be a loss for Mizzou all along and I’m now just trying to figure out the margin. I don’t think it’s going to be a terribly close contest but I certainly hope I’m way off on this. Official prediction: 82-70 Wildcats.
TIDBITS TO HELP YOU DOMINATE WATERCOOLER CONVERSATION AND GENERALLY LOOK SWEET AROUND LESS KNOWLEDGABLE SPORTS FANS…
- KSU is 6-1 in conference road games which is quite impressive. Guess where that one loss came.
- Mizzou is 21-8 in Big 12 play the last two seasons, second best in the league behind Kansas at 27-2.
- Tigers are on pace to break the Big 12 record for steals per game (11.2 currently vs Nebraska’s 10.9 figure during the ‘98-’99 season)
- Mizzou was 12-4 under the starting lineup of Tiller, Taylor, English, Ramsey and Safford. For the record, Tiller, Taylor, English, Ramsey and Bowers were the starters at Vanderbilt, a 6pt loss for the Tigers and the only time that bunch has started this season.
- Mizzou has won the “points in the paint” battle the last 6 games. In their 7 conference games prior to the current streak, they won it exactly once by a whopping two points.
- The CU victory marked the fourth time in conference play the Mizzou bench scored 40+; Tigers 7-0 in Big 12 games when their bench gets 30+.
- After starting out shooting 38% from the field in conference roadies, Mizzou has shot 47% in the last 3 games. 3 fewer made field goals on 46 fewer attempts. From deep, it’s a bump from 42% to 49%. I like, no LOVE, where this trend is going.
- Tigers winless in Manhattan since 2004, that’s 5 straight with an average margin of defeat at 19ppg. Yikes. Shot under 40% from the field in all but one of those.
- Justin Kutcher will provide the play-by-play for the ESPNU broadcast…no relation to Ashton.
M – I – Z…
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Texas (20-5, 6-4) at Missouri (18-7, 6-4)
Thoughts from the last game
· One of the glaring shortcomings of this team reared its ugly head at the absolutely worst time vs Baylor: REBOUNDING. They absolutely had to get a rebound on that late free throw and it just didn’t happen.
· Hate to point fingers but I thought the Tigers left a lot of points on the board with wide-open misses, particularly by Justin Safford early in the game.
· The formula for sneaking out a road W was there – keep it close, don’t do anything terribly stupid and give yourself a chance late in the game. Just didn’t make enough plays down the stretch.
Looking ahead at the Horns…
First and foremost Tiger fans, it’s the BLACKOUT game at Mizzou Arena. So if you’re headed to the game Wednesday evening, wear black…or do whatever you can to support the BLACKOUT theme…I’m not offering suggestions beyond that.
This is a huge game for both teams. The winner keeps pace with Texas A&M and Baylor at 7-4 and a three-way tie for 3rd place in the Big 12. In that respect, it’s especially big for Mizzou since they already dropped their games to the Aggies and Bears earlier. Texas split with those two earlier in conference play and has a game remaining with each down the stretch. The loser goes to 6-5 and has a fairly steep uphill battle to gain a first-round bye in the conference tournament, not to mention some work left to do to be a lock for the NCAA Tournament.
Take the recent slide after the Longhorns’ ascent to the nation’s top ranking and throw it out the window. I don’t care what the record says or what the pundits say about how they’re in a free-fall or they’re perhaps not as good as they appeared early-on…Texas is a very good basketball team. They have a lot of talent across the board, some great experienced players and some new faces with great energy. Aside from being the top scoring team in the conference, they match up with the Tigers better than almost anybody in terms of desired tempo. Texas likes to get out and run and they have the athletes to do it. They are the best rebounding squad in the conference which is an area Mizzou has struggled this year. They are very strong and deep in the middle. That point can’t be overemphasized. Their bench is almost as deep as Mizzou’s in terms of minutes played. They don’t rely on the three like many teams in the conference do but they convert well from behind the arc. The only area they struggle from a statistical standpoint is at the free throw line where they’re bottom of the Big 12 at a tepid 61%, including a rock-bottom 37% (from the stripe…seriously…10 for 27) during a nine-point loss to Oklahoma. To be fair, they’ve been over 73% the last two games. To be fairer still, they’re really just 51.2% in conference roadies on the season. This could be huge because Mizzou will have fouls to give against Texas.
Quick hitters on Texas’ personnel…
EXPECTED STARTERS
· Any conversation about Texas begins with senior G/F Damion James. He’s the conference’s 4th leading scorer (18.9) and leading rebounder (11.3). He’s also the Big 12’s all-time leader in rebounds (1,239) and double-doubles (50). He’s a physical presence who draws a lot of fouls. He’s going to get his.
· Senior C Dexter Pittman has seen a bit of a scoring slump in conference but still swatting 2 shots and ripping down 5 boards in under 20 minutes per game. He’s especially efficient on the offensive glass. The big question with him will always be his conditioning. They’ll mention on the broadcast no fewer than 11 times how much weight he lost from when he stepped on campus (nearly 80 lbs). That story is tied-for-first for ”Big 12 Conference Color Analyst Go-To Anecdote of the Year” with the cutesy tale of Kim English and his habit of sleeping in the locker room/practice facility. Nevertheless, the fewer minutes Pittman plays, the less damage he can do. Last year, he scored 25 points in 23 minutes against the Tigers. Expect Coach Anderson to find spots for Steve Moore to match up with Pittman and give Ramsey a break. Moore should foul liberally.
· Freshman G Avery Bradley might have an outside shot for Big 12 freshman of the year. He’s shooting 52.6% from the field including a blistering 53.5% behind the arc. He was 6 for 7 on Saturday from deep in the blowout of Nebraska. He’s horrible from the stripe (40%) but hardly ever gets there. He’s the second leading scorer for the Horns at 15.1 ppg. He’s the best (thus far) of the three highly touted freshmen for the Horns.
· Junior G Dogus Balbay takes good care of the ball, distributes it well (3.4apg) and plays solid perimeter defense. He’s not a shooter, nor any kind of legit, consistent offensive threat but he can bury the occasional three. For the record, I said the same thing about Cade Davis (OU) a few weeks back so naturally I expect Balbay to drop 18 on the Tigers Wednesday night.
· Freshman G J’Covan Brown scored 28 on Kansas last Monday filling in for an injured Justin Mason, which earned him a start over the weekend against Nebraska. In that one he turned in a 12 point/6 assist effort. Brown has experienced plenty of growing pains learning Coach Barnes’ system and getting out of his comfort zone. He is an explosive player offensively and it appears his defense is finally up to snuff to garner increased playing time. He’s great from the line as well.
BENCH
· Junior F Gary Johnson started one game (KU) and then made his way back to the bench where he has been rock solid for Barnes. He’s a very dangerous force in the middle and tough defensive matchup if Pittman and James are already on the floor. He chips in 10ppg/7rpg and would start on most teams in the conference.
· Freshman F Jordan Hamilton was another player slow on the uptake with Barnes’ philosophy. He’s not afraid to fire it up and poor shot selection was the target of his coach’s criticism. Seems things have started to turn for him, like Brown, with the buy-in on defense. He’s got good range.
· Senior G Justin Mason is a four year starter for UT who went down with a left ankle injury in practice last week. He had been moved to the bench for the Kansas game, presumably to allow Johnson to start to better match up with KU’s size. Mason is questionable for Missouri game. At full strength, he’s a solid defender but offensively anemic – his scoring average has dropped each season. He’s the worst FT shooter on the team. Barnes has said when Mason and Balbay are on the floor, Texas is playing “3 versus 5”.
· Junior G Jai Lucas is in his first season with UT after transferring from Florida where he had started a full season as a freshman. Now he’s the 5th or 6th option at guard but hey, he’s closer to home. Lucas has PG pedigree but hasn’t really been given the keys to run the show yet. He’s only behind Balbay in most assists per 40 minutes.
Having established that Texas is the second coming, how do the Tigers beat them? First, playing this game at home is a huge advantage. This is the biggest home game to this point and I think the crowd will respond and support accordingly. Texas’s home/road splits, especially in conference games, are meaningful. Same with the Tigers. I expect the Tigers to get out-rebounded by Texas because that is just what they do. Realistically, Mizzou isn’t going to stifle both James and Pittman but they have to limit the damage. The Tigers can absorb one guy with a big night (see: James Anderson/OSU) but if two or more guys go off, that could spell trouble. They’re outmatched inside but should be able to slow the Texas guards on the perimeter. Help defense will be key and getting to the 50/50 balls is huge. Mizzou has to turn Texas over and convert into transition buckets. With Mason potentially out, the depth at guard shrinks a little and this could play in Missouri’s favor. Can Texas put the ball into the hands of two freshmen and get a win on the road? That is the big question. I say no. Calling this one 80-76 Tigers.
TIDBITS TO HELP YOU DOMINATE WATERCOOLER CONVERSATION
· Texas has a player on their roster named Andrew Dick – no word on if it’s the same guy from Old School.
· Texas hasn’t scored in the 80s in conference play but have allowed exactly 80 three times…all Longhorn losses.
· Longhorns 5-0 in Big 12 play when shooting over 42% from the floor
· Texas has trailed at halftime in 8 of their 10 conference games and have come back to win six of those 8.
· One of the glaring shortcomings of this team reared its ugly head at the absolutely worst time vs Baylor: REBOUNDING. They absolutely had to get a rebound on that late free throw and it just didn’t happen.
· Hate to point fingers but I thought the Tigers left a lot of points on the board with wide-open misses, particularly by Justin Safford early in the game.
· The formula for sneaking out a road W was there – keep it close, don’t do anything terribly stupid and give yourself a chance late in the game. Just didn’t make enough plays down the stretch.
Looking ahead at the Horns…
First and foremost Tiger fans, it’s the BLACKOUT game at Mizzou Arena. So if you’re headed to the game Wednesday evening, wear black…or do whatever you can to support the BLACKOUT theme…I’m not offering suggestions beyond that.
This is a huge game for both teams. The winner keeps pace with Texas A&M and Baylor at 7-4 and a three-way tie for 3rd place in the Big 12. In that respect, it’s especially big for Mizzou since they already dropped their games to the Aggies and Bears earlier. Texas split with those two earlier in conference play and has a game remaining with each down the stretch. The loser goes to 6-5 and has a fairly steep uphill battle to gain a first-round bye in the conference tournament, not to mention some work left to do to be a lock for the NCAA Tournament.
Take the recent slide after the Longhorns’ ascent to the nation’s top ranking and throw it out the window. I don’t care what the record says or what the pundits say about how they’re in a free-fall or they’re perhaps not as good as they appeared early-on…Texas is a very good basketball team. They have a lot of talent across the board, some great experienced players and some new faces with great energy. Aside from being the top scoring team in the conference, they match up with the Tigers better than almost anybody in terms of desired tempo. Texas likes to get out and run and they have the athletes to do it. They are the best rebounding squad in the conference which is an area Mizzou has struggled this year. They are very strong and deep in the middle. That point can’t be overemphasized. Their bench is almost as deep as Mizzou’s in terms of minutes played. They don’t rely on the three like many teams in the conference do but they convert well from behind the arc. The only area they struggle from a statistical standpoint is at the free throw line where they’re bottom of the Big 12 at a tepid 61%, including a rock-bottom 37% (from the stripe…seriously…10 for 27) during a nine-point loss to Oklahoma. To be fair, they’ve been over 73% the last two games. To be fairer still, they’re really just 51.2% in conference roadies on the season. This could be huge because Mizzou will have fouls to give against Texas.
Quick hitters on Texas’ personnel…
EXPECTED STARTERS
· Any conversation about Texas begins with senior G/F Damion James. He’s the conference’s 4th leading scorer (18.9) and leading rebounder (11.3). He’s also the Big 12’s all-time leader in rebounds (1,239) and double-doubles (50). He’s a physical presence who draws a lot of fouls. He’s going to get his.
· Senior C Dexter Pittman has seen a bit of a scoring slump in conference but still swatting 2 shots and ripping down 5 boards in under 20 minutes per game. He’s especially efficient on the offensive glass. The big question with him will always be his conditioning. They’ll mention on the broadcast no fewer than 11 times how much weight he lost from when he stepped on campus (nearly 80 lbs). That story is tied-for-first for ”Big 12 Conference Color Analyst Go-To Anecdote of the Year” with the cutesy tale of Kim English and his habit of sleeping in the locker room/practice facility. Nevertheless, the fewer minutes Pittman plays, the less damage he can do. Last year, he scored 25 points in 23 minutes against the Tigers. Expect Coach Anderson to find spots for Steve Moore to match up with Pittman and give Ramsey a break. Moore should foul liberally.
· Freshman G Avery Bradley might have an outside shot for Big 12 freshman of the year. He’s shooting 52.6% from the field including a blistering 53.5% behind the arc. He was 6 for 7 on Saturday from deep in the blowout of Nebraska. He’s horrible from the stripe (40%) but hardly ever gets there. He’s the second leading scorer for the Horns at 15.1 ppg. He’s the best (thus far) of the three highly touted freshmen for the Horns.
· Junior G Dogus Balbay takes good care of the ball, distributes it well (3.4apg) and plays solid perimeter defense. He’s not a shooter, nor any kind of legit, consistent offensive threat but he can bury the occasional three. For the record, I said the same thing about Cade Davis (OU) a few weeks back so naturally I expect Balbay to drop 18 on the Tigers Wednesday night.
· Freshman G J’Covan Brown scored 28 on Kansas last Monday filling in for an injured Justin Mason, which earned him a start over the weekend against Nebraska. In that one he turned in a 12 point/6 assist effort. Brown has experienced plenty of growing pains learning Coach Barnes’ system and getting out of his comfort zone. He is an explosive player offensively and it appears his defense is finally up to snuff to garner increased playing time. He’s great from the line as well.
BENCH
· Junior F Gary Johnson started one game (KU) and then made his way back to the bench where he has been rock solid for Barnes. He’s a very dangerous force in the middle and tough defensive matchup if Pittman and James are already on the floor. He chips in 10ppg/7rpg and would start on most teams in the conference.
· Freshman F Jordan Hamilton was another player slow on the uptake with Barnes’ philosophy. He’s not afraid to fire it up and poor shot selection was the target of his coach’s criticism. Seems things have started to turn for him, like Brown, with the buy-in on defense. He’s got good range.
· Senior G Justin Mason is a four year starter for UT who went down with a left ankle injury in practice last week. He had been moved to the bench for the Kansas game, presumably to allow Johnson to start to better match up with KU’s size. Mason is questionable for Missouri game. At full strength, he’s a solid defender but offensively anemic – his scoring average has dropped each season. He’s the worst FT shooter on the team. Barnes has said when Mason and Balbay are on the floor, Texas is playing “3 versus 5”.
· Junior G Jai Lucas is in his first season with UT after transferring from Florida where he had started a full season as a freshman. Now he’s the 5th or 6th option at guard but hey, he’s closer to home. Lucas has PG pedigree but hasn’t really been given the keys to run the show yet. He’s only behind Balbay in most assists per 40 minutes.
Having established that Texas is the second coming, how do the Tigers beat them? First, playing this game at home is a huge advantage. This is the biggest home game to this point and I think the crowd will respond and support accordingly. Texas’s home/road splits, especially in conference games, are meaningful. Same with the Tigers. I expect the Tigers to get out-rebounded by Texas because that is just what they do. Realistically, Mizzou isn’t going to stifle both James and Pittman but they have to limit the damage. The Tigers can absorb one guy with a big night (see: James Anderson/OSU) but if two or more guys go off, that could spell trouble. They’re outmatched inside but should be able to slow the Texas guards on the perimeter. Help defense will be key and getting to the 50/50 balls is huge. Mizzou has to turn Texas over and convert into transition buckets. With Mason potentially out, the depth at guard shrinks a little and this could play in Missouri’s favor. Can Texas put the ball into the hands of two freshmen and get a win on the road? That is the big question. I say no. Calling this one 80-76 Tigers.
TIDBITS TO HELP YOU DOMINATE WATERCOOLER CONVERSATION
· Texas has a player on their roster named Andrew Dick – no word on if it’s the same guy from Old School.
· Texas hasn’t scored in the 80s in conference play but have allowed exactly 80 three times…all Longhorn losses.
· Longhorns 5-0 in Big 12 play when shooting over 42% from the floor
· Texas has trailed at halftime in 8 of their 10 conference games and have come back to win six of those 8.
M-I-Z…
Monday, January 25, 2010
MIZZOU @ KANSAS - BIG MONDAY
Thoughts from last game and taking inventory at the quarter-pole of Big 12 play…
· Kim English’s conference woes continue and his minutes have suffered accordingly. He’s now shooting under 30% from the field, 19% from 3-point range and has 2 assists against 11 turnovers. To his credit, however, he is pulling down 5 boards a game in Big 12 play. It really would not surprise me at all if Marcus Denmon started for English tonight.
· Wow Miguel Paul, wow. That was very impressive. You, good sir, may have just earned a share of Kim English’s dwindling minutes.
· Mizzou’s defensive pressure has been stifled significantly in conference play. Steals and TO’s forced are each down by about 5 per game.
· Mizzou has also struggled shooting the ball in Big 12 games: FG% down nearly 10%; 3-point FG% down over 8%
· However, the Tigers are shooting lights out from the FT line (74%) which is huge when you’re averaging nearly 30 trips to the line per Big 12 contest; they’ve also upped their rebounds per game by 4.5.
Looking ahead to the Jayhawks…
Pure and simple, this will likely be the toughest game Mizzou will have all season. I don’t need to waste a lot of cyberspace analyzing the talent they have, examining matchups, digging into how they’ve played against common opponents or how good they are at breaking presses. Kansas is one of the most efficient teams, both offensively and defensively, ranking 2nd nationally in both per www.kenpom.com. They shoot very well and are great at FG defense, especially on the interior where they block a ton of shots. They frequently generate steals and take care of the ball on their own end. There isn’t a single statistical category where a reasonable individual could characterize them as weak or subpar aside from that hideous mythical bird mascot, but I digress. They go eight deep with very little drop-off and those eight could likely start on any team, certainly in the Big 12, if not the nation. They have experience but also have the likely candidate for Big 12 freshman of the year. They are incredibly balanced not only in who scores but how their points are scored. They don’t rely on the 3-pointer or force the ball inside every possession or get to the line a ton for freebies. They’re just an all-around great team that can get points in a multitude of different ways. At the risk of being accused of adultery for this gushing over the Tigers’ most hated rival, the following is a brief rundown of the major players for the Jayhawks some trivia for each that may or may not be true. I’ll let the reader decide.
Senior PG Sherron Collins…
a) Is their leading scorer and he’s as good as any guard in the country with the ball.
b) Has turned the ball over 6 or more times only 6 times in his career and KU is 3-3 in those games
c) Plays “Love in an Elevator” on his ipod before every home game: http://tinyurl.com/sherron
d) Hasn’t blocked a shot all season…or last.
Junior C Cole Aldrich…
a) Averages a double-double the last two seasons and has 29 career DDs and one triple-double
b) Blocks nearly 3 ½ shots per game
c) Was born on Halloween and thus looks like a ghost
d) Like Johnny Glory Days, Cole sports a fake front tooth, though I’m sure Cole’s story behind his dental mishap is far less entertaining.
Freshman G Xavier Henry…
a) Pretty much a lock for Big 12 freshman of the year (although Colorado’s Alec Burks is still in the running)
b) Also pretty much a lock to not stay around for a second year
c) Was born in Belgium, hence the pronunciation of his name “ZAH-vee-ay”
d) Henry’s father played for KU in the early 80s, leading KU in scoring both seasons he played there.
Sophomore Fs Marcus and Markieff Morris…
a) Combine to contribute 18.7 ppg and 10.5 rpg
b) Auditioned for the Coors Lights “TWINS” commercials featuring Kid Rock in 2001.
c) Grew up idolizing Sammy and Simeon Haley
d) Have a standing offer from WWE’s Vince McMahon to join the wrestling circuit as a tag-team in 2013
Sophomore G Tyshawn Taylor…
a) Was de-friended by coach Bill Self on Facebook after publicly questioning his role on the team
b) Was instrumental in a re-enactment of West Side Story on the KU campus this fall (http://tinyurl.com/wsidestory)
c) Punches like a girl
d) Recently lost his starting job to a former walk-on
Talent wise, this is the best team Mizzou will see this season barring a tournament meeting with Kentucky, and that’s debatable. So if this game comes down to sheer talent on talent, the Tigers will come up on the short end. For the Tigers to win, they’ll obviously have to adhere to the usual assortment of basketball clichés…shoot well, rebound well, keep Kansas off the offensive glass, convert free throws, not turn the ball over, not get beat in transition, get to the 50/50 balls, play as a team etc. But it’s going to take all that plus a little more. Phog Allen Fieldhouse holds a notorious home-court advantage and sometimes officials feed off that emotion so Mizzou will have to play a very clean game and not get flustered over a little home cookin’ (which is common throughout college basketball). If Mizzou has any shot to win this game, not only does all of that have to fall their way, but they need Kansas to play far less than the sum of their parts by letting their egos get in the way and not sharing the basketball. It would also help if Cole Aldrich got in foul trouble early and the rest of the Jayhawks had unbelievably cold shooting nights. When you have that many players with that kind of talent, team chemistry and acceptance of certain “supplemental” roles can become an issue. If this manifests itself in the home team on Monday night, Mizzou’s got a shot. Realistically though, the Tigers have lost their last 10 trips to Lawrence by an average margin of 15 ppg and I don’t see a see a compelling reason to think that streak will be broken tonight. I hope I’m wrong but I see the Tigers dropping this one 81-68.
TIDBITS TO HELP YOU DOMINATE WATERCOOLER CONVERSATION
· Missouri can end the nation’s longest home winning streak (53) with a win in Lawrence
· Missouri has averaged only 3 fast break points per game in Big 12 play (11 fast break ppg in non-conference games)
· Missouri is 9-1 on the season when they win the rebounding margin and 14-1 when they score 70+ points.
· Bowers and Denmon are 2nd and 4th in the conference in ppg scored as a bench player (11.9 and 11.7 ppg, respectively)
· Happy Birthday shout-out to Mrs. Johnny Glory Days. I know she’ll enjoy watching the game with me on her “special day”
· Kim English’s conference woes continue and his minutes have suffered accordingly. He’s now shooting under 30% from the field, 19% from 3-point range and has 2 assists against 11 turnovers. To his credit, however, he is pulling down 5 boards a game in Big 12 play. It really would not surprise me at all if Marcus Denmon started for English tonight.
· Wow Miguel Paul, wow. That was very impressive. You, good sir, may have just earned a share of Kim English’s dwindling minutes.
· Mizzou’s defensive pressure has been stifled significantly in conference play. Steals and TO’s forced are each down by about 5 per game.
· Mizzou has also struggled shooting the ball in Big 12 games: FG% down nearly 10%; 3-point FG% down over 8%
· However, the Tigers are shooting lights out from the FT line (74%) which is huge when you’re averaging nearly 30 trips to the line per Big 12 contest; they’ve also upped their rebounds per game by 4.5.
Looking ahead to the Jayhawks…
Pure and simple, this will likely be the toughest game Mizzou will have all season. I don’t need to waste a lot of cyberspace analyzing the talent they have, examining matchups, digging into how they’ve played against common opponents or how good they are at breaking presses. Kansas is one of the most efficient teams, both offensively and defensively, ranking 2nd nationally in both per www.kenpom.com. They shoot very well and are great at FG defense, especially on the interior where they block a ton of shots. They frequently generate steals and take care of the ball on their own end. There isn’t a single statistical category where a reasonable individual could characterize them as weak or subpar aside from that hideous mythical bird mascot, but I digress. They go eight deep with very little drop-off and those eight could likely start on any team, certainly in the Big 12, if not the nation. They have experience but also have the likely candidate for Big 12 freshman of the year. They are incredibly balanced not only in who scores but how their points are scored. They don’t rely on the 3-pointer or force the ball inside every possession or get to the line a ton for freebies. They’re just an all-around great team that can get points in a multitude of different ways. At the risk of being accused of adultery for this gushing over the Tigers’ most hated rival, the following is a brief rundown of the major players for the Jayhawks some trivia for each that may or may not be true. I’ll let the reader decide.
Senior PG Sherron Collins…
a) Is their leading scorer and he’s as good as any guard in the country with the ball.
b) Has turned the ball over 6 or more times only 6 times in his career and KU is 3-3 in those games
c) Plays “Love in an Elevator” on his ipod before every home game: http://tinyurl.com/sherron
d) Hasn’t blocked a shot all season…or last.
Junior C Cole Aldrich…
a) Averages a double-double the last two seasons and has 29 career DDs and one triple-double
b) Blocks nearly 3 ½ shots per game
c) Was born on Halloween and thus looks like a ghost
d) Like Johnny Glory Days, Cole sports a fake front tooth, though I’m sure Cole’s story behind his dental mishap is far less entertaining.
Freshman G Xavier Henry…
a) Pretty much a lock for Big 12 freshman of the year (although Colorado’s Alec Burks is still in the running)
b) Also pretty much a lock to not stay around for a second year
c) Was born in Belgium, hence the pronunciation of his name “ZAH-vee-ay”
d) Henry’s father played for KU in the early 80s, leading KU in scoring both seasons he played there.
Sophomore Fs Marcus and Markieff Morris…
a) Combine to contribute 18.7 ppg and 10.5 rpg
b) Auditioned for the Coors Lights “TWINS” commercials featuring Kid Rock in 2001.
c) Grew up idolizing Sammy and Simeon Haley
d) Have a standing offer from WWE’s Vince McMahon to join the wrestling circuit as a tag-team in 2013
Sophomore G Tyshawn Taylor…
a) Was de-friended by coach Bill Self on Facebook after publicly questioning his role on the team
b) Was instrumental in a re-enactment of West Side Story on the KU campus this fall (http://tinyurl.com/wsidestory)
c) Punches like a girl
d) Recently lost his starting job to a former walk-on
Talent wise, this is the best team Mizzou will see this season barring a tournament meeting with Kentucky, and that’s debatable. So if this game comes down to sheer talent on talent, the Tigers will come up on the short end. For the Tigers to win, they’ll obviously have to adhere to the usual assortment of basketball clichés…shoot well, rebound well, keep Kansas off the offensive glass, convert free throws, not turn the ball over, not get beat in transition, get to the 50/50 balls, play as a team etc. But it’s going to take all that plus a little more. Phog Allen Fieldhouse holds a notorious home-court advantage and sometimes officials feed off that emotion so Mizzou will have to play a very clean game and not get flustered over a little home cookin’ (which is common throughout college basketball). If Mizzou has any shot to win this game, not only does all of that have to fall their way, but they need Kansas to play far less than the sum of their parts by letting their egos get in the way and not sharing the basketball. It would also help if Cole Aldrich got in foul trouble early and the rest of the Jayhawks had unbelievably cold shooting nights. When you have that many players with that kind of talent, team chemistry and acceptance of certain “supplemental” roles can become an issue. If this manifests itself in the home team on Monday night, Mizzou’s got a shot. Realistically though, the Tigers have lost their last 10 trips to Lawrence by an average margin of 15 ppg and I don’t see a see a compelling reason to think that streak will be broken tonight. I hope I’m wrong but I see the Tigers dropping this one 81-68.
TIDBITS TO HELP YOU DOMINATE WATERCOOLER CONVERSATION
· Missouri can end the nation’s longest home winning streak (53) with a win in Lawrence
· Missouri has averaged only 3 fast break points per game in Big 12 play (11 fast break ppg in non-conference games)
· Missouri is 9-1 on the season when they win the rebounding margin and 14-1 when they score 70+ points.
· Bowers and Denmon are 2nd and 4th in the conference in ppg scored as a bench player (11.9 and 11.7 ppg, respectively)
· Happy Birthday shout-out to Mrs. Johnny Glory Days. I know she’ll enjoy watching the game with me on her “special day”
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Mizzou @ Texas Tech
Thoughts from last game…
- Amazing that the Tigers survived a 9+ minute stretch without a made field goal and still won
- Mizzou’s FT% is better than it’s been for a long, long time but it still feels like we miss the front end of a 1-and-1 way too much
-
I continue to be amazed how Mizzou can just seemingly “flip the switch” and take their normal pressure D to an even higher level.
- Tiger frontcourt had a nice day at the office vs the K-State bigs: Scoring margin +11; Rebounding deficit at only -3 and perhaps the stat of the game: Mizzou forwards committed 13 fewer fouls than their KSU counterparts
- Laurence “Larry” Bowers is one of the most entertaining/exciting players of recent memory for the Tigers
- Denmon is showing how deadly of a shooter he can be, perhaps that knee issue affected him more than he let on a season ago – he’s already canned more 3s this season than all of last
- I still can’t believe how animated Coach Frank Martin got on the bench, seems like his chili runs pretty hot (understatement?) Is he the Bo Pelini of Big XII hoops coaches?
Looking ahead…
The Tigers roll into Lubbock,Texas Wednesday night riding an 8-game winning streak. The Tigers haven’t won in Lubbock since February 15, 2000 and, in fact, the home team has won 10 of the 13 games in this series played at the respective campuses. A season ago, Mizzou beat Tech in Columbia by 11 and then blew them out in the quarterfinals of the Big XII tournament in Dallas. The Tiger are 0-2 in true road games this season and haven’t had a road win since their trip to Colorado late last February. They have, however, won two neutral site games over Old Dominion and Illinois, both ranked in the RPI top 100. Big XII teams, thus far on the season, are 112-1 on their home floor (through Monday’s OU/OSU game). Needless to say, this will be a very challenging game for the Tigers, as will all of their road contests.
- Amazing that the Tigers survived a 9+ minute stretch without a made field goal and still won
- Mizzou’s FT% is better than it’s been for a long, long time but it still feels like we miss the front end of a 1-and-1 way too much
-
I continue to be amazed how Mizzou can just seemingly “flip the switch” and take their normal pressure D to an even higher level.- Tiger frontcourt had a nice day at the office vs the K-State bigs: Scoring margin +11; Rebounding deficit at only -3 and perhaps the stat of the game: Mizzou forwards committed 13 fewer fouls than their KSU counterparts
- Laurence “Larry” Bowers is one of the most entertaining/exciting players of recent memory for the Tigers
- Denmon is showing how deadly of a shooter he can be, perhaps that knee issue affected him more than he let on a season ago – he’s already canned more 3s this season than all of last
- I still can’t believe how animated Coach Frank Martin got on the bench, seems like his chili runs pretty hot (understatement?) Is he the Bo Pelini of Big XII hoops coaches?
Looking ahead…
The Tigers roll into Lubbock,Texas Wednesday night riding an 8-game winning streak. The Tigers haven’t won in Lubbock since February 15, 2000 and, in fact, the home team has won 10 of the 13 games in this series played at the respective campuses. A season ago, Mizzou beat Tech in Columbia by 11 and then blew them out in the quarterfinals of the Big XII tournament in Dallas. The Tiger are 0-2 in true road games this season and haven’t had a road win since their trip to Colorado late last February. They have, however, won two neutral site games over Old Dominion and Illinois, both ranked in the RPI top 100. Big XII teams, thus far on the season, are 112-1 on their home floor (through Monday’s OU/OSU game). Needless to say, this will be a very challenging game for the Tigers, as will all of their road contests.
One of the first things people want to know about Tiger opponents is if they can keep up with the “Fastest 40 Minutes of Basketball” style that Coach Mike Anderson has installed in Columbia. To do this, you need a mentally-tough team with skilled guards, big men that can handle the basketball and superior physical conditioning. It also helps tremendously if you can go beyond 8-deep. The Red Raiders play at an up-tempo pace like the Tigers. They like to keep things moving and don’t waste a lot of movement dribbling and playing a one-on-one game. They have played three teams that rank in the top 25 in terms of tempo, according to http://www.kenpom.com/, Washington, Northwestern State and South Dakota and won each of those contests. Their three biggest victories were the overtime triumph over Washington, a 13 pout win over Stanford and a close victory over an improving UTEP team earlier this month. Two of their three losses have been of the blowout variety, losing at New Mexico by 15 and getting hammered by 29 at Oklahoma State to open conference play. The Red Raiders haven’t played a team that plays defense like Missouri and, based on forced turnover percentage, there’s no team better in the country. Some comparables for Tech would be their games with Stephen F Austin and UTEP who each force turnovers on over 23% of their opponents possessions (Mizzou: 29.7%). In those games, both wins for the Raiders, they turned the ball over an average of 13 times.
Even though Bobby Knight has been gone for a couple of years and his son, Coach Pat Knight, is at the helm, the General’s fingerprints are still all over this program especially
with the style they play. They are fundamentally sound and disciplined, above-average passers and tough on defense. They don’t rely on the 3-pointer like so many teams do these days and they are good from the free-throw line, getting 26% of their offense from the stripe. The Red Raiders might not have the best athletes in the conference but they are disciplined and work hard to get good shots. Tech has won 65% of their conference home games over the last 5 seasons and in that same time, Mizzou has struggled on the road, winning only 27.5% of their contests. Something of particular note for Mizzou fans is that Kansas has lost their last three road games in Lubbock so while it might not quite be Cameron Indoor, Tech is definitely a little better at home, as are most teams.
Texas Tech really has two go-to guys, Jr F Mike Singletary (15.6ppg/5.9rpg/2.1apg) and Jr PG John Roberson (13.0ppg/5.5apg/1.7spg). One of these two have led them in scoring in 10 of their 15 games and if one is having a bad night, it could spell disaster for Tech because they just don’t have a lot of offensive weapons beyond that. Coach Knight plays these two a ton of minutes, especially in close games. Roberson has logged 35+ minutes in 11 games this season and 40+ in four. This early-season workload obviously takes a toll on anybody but especially a PG charged with navigating the Missouri Tiger press 70 times a game. His
conditioning/fatigue factor is something to keep an eye on. Roberson shoots as many 3s as 2s and converts the deep ball at an adequate rate of 37.5%. Singletary has seen a bump in his scoring from his sophomore season mainly due to his improved shooting and increased shots per game with the departure of graduated Tech guard Alan Voskuil. He is also the team’s second leading rebounder and will draw a lot of fouls. As these two go, so go the Red Raiders. I expect each to play nearly the whole game. The third scoring weapon, Jr G David Tairu (12.1ppg/3.4rpg/51.9% 3P), has been coming off the bench to give Coach Knight’s team a boost. He’s the team’s best shooter from deep although Tech only launches 13 treys a game, by far the fewest in the conference. Couple that with their mediocre-at-best conversion percentage from 3-point land, and it’s clear that Texas Tech is not built to mount a comeback when they’d need points in a hurry. Somebody would have to abnormally catch fire and that person could be Tairu. Perhaps the most athletic player for the Red Raiders is Jr F D’Walyn Roberts (8.1ppg/7.3rpg/1.3bpg). His game is in the paint and he leads the team in rebounds, blocks and dunks. He’s a 62% shooter from 2-point range but admittedly doesn’t shoot the ball a whole lot. In the middle, Tech starts Sr F Darko Cohadarevic (7.6ppg/5.1rpg). He plays about half the game and at 6’9” 242lbs, provides some size in the paint. He and Roberts combine for about 5 offensive boards per game. Sr G Nick Okorie (8.9ppg/2.1apg/1.4spg) is the starting guard opposite Roberson. He’s an adequate ball-handler but doesn’t have the upside of Tairu offensively. Reserve Jr Fs Brad Reese and Theron Jenkins round out the top 8 for Tech and Soph F Robert Lewandowski plays sparingly though he did lead Tech in scoring against Mizzou in Columbia last year with 16. Reese is the only one in the regular rotation who shoots less than 70% from the stripe and Jenkins grabs nearly 2.5 rebounds per game despite playing just over 11 minutes a contest. Reese has attempted the 2nd most 3s on the team, hitting only 25%.
I think you’ll see a good matchup of English on Singletary and it will be interesting to see if Kimmie can match his physical game without getting into foul trouble. Safford and Ramsey will start out on Roberts and Cohadarevic initially and they have to keep those two off the offensive glass. Tech is not a great shooting team but Mizzou certainly can’t afford to give them second and third chances, especially on the road. Tech is not a perimeter-oriented team in terms of reliance on the 3-pointer. They get less than 17% of their total offense from deep but where they really excel is getting to the line a lot and converting. As opposed to Kansas State
who gets to the line more than anybody in the nation but doesn’t shoot that well, Coach Knight’s team will make you pay the price for fouling. So even though the Tigers go 9-10 deep and should have plenty of fouls to give without losing production, if they get into the kind of game they did vs Kansas State where it was just whistle after whistle, it might be the kiss of death. Also like K-State, Tech commits their fair share of fouls so Mizzou has to convert those into points on the road. In terms of ball-handling, Tech has more turnovers than assists on the season and that tells me all I need to know. Roberson and Okorie are above average with the ball but most of the other guys are very turnover prone. They really only play three guards in their rotation and if they, for whatever reason, have to call on true Fr G Mike Davis, that is an indication of some big-time trouble.
Mizzou is one of the most defensively efficient teams in the nation, meaning teams score less on a per-possession basis than against most other teams. This increases the value of each possession for Tech on Wednesday night. I have no reason to believe Mizzou’s press will not work in this game unless they don’t get a chance to set it up by missing a ton of shots. As previously mentioned, 29.7% of their opponents’ possessions end up in turnovers and Mizzou contributes to that by stealing the ball 17.5% of the time. What that implies is “unforced errors” on the part of Tiger foes at a rate of 12.2% or about one out of every eight possessions. At a game played at Mizzou’s average tempo (roughly 74 possessions per game), that translates to 9 times when the offense throws the ball away,
travels, dribbles off their foot, gets a 5 second or backcourt violation…think about that for a minute and it kind of helps understand why Coach Frank Martin of Kansas State was shown numerous times going absolutely ballistic on the sidelines last Saturday. Who wouldn’t? When the announcers talk about Mizzou’s “cumulative pressure” during a Tiger broadcast (and when ESPN’s Steve Lavin does a game, you could make a drinking game out of this one phrase), this is exactly what they’re referring to. It’s not only physically exhausting but certainly mentally and emotionally as well. This is why Mizzou should have a chance to compete in every game, regardless of who their opponent is. Mizzou is able to defend with this kind of intensity and push the ball at every opportunity because of their deep, versatile bench. The Tigers have 10 players contributing 10+ minutes per contest and Coach Anderson makes no secret about the fact that he has “8 starters”. The Tiger bench logs the most minutes of any team in conference (41.2% of total minutes from players who did not start) and their bench contributes 45% to their overall scoring. Having talented guys like Marcus Denmon, Mike Dixon and Laurence Bowers coming off the bench has been invaluable for Coach Anderson and even role players like Miguel Paul and Steve Moore have really stepped up their contribution this season. This kind of balance serves as a great protection should one player get in foul trouble, come up with an injury or just have an off-night. The downside of that is that nobody has effectively stepped up as “the” go-to guy in crunch time of a “late and close” game. I think Kim English wants to be that guy and as the team’s leading scorer, I understand that. However great his skill and flair for the dramatic, I don’t think he’s displayed the basketball IQ and decision-making on a consistent basis to secure this role. I’ve been really impressed with Zaire Taylor, Marcus Denmon and Laurence Bowers of late but it’s really hard to prop up one of these guys without the rest since they really do play so well as a team. It will be interesting to see who has the ball in the waning seconds of a game when the Tigers have to make a shot to tie or win. I think it’s between English and Taylor at this time. Stay tuned.
To win this game, the Tigers need to keep Tech off the foul line and manage their emotions on the road. They will force turnovers and create opportunities in transition and I think the rebounding will be pretty even. There is no such thing as an ugly road win in the Big XII and getting out of anywhere with a “W” will be at a premium thi
s season. I am looking for JT Tiller to step up and guide the Tigers through this challenge. Tiller, as the only four-year player in the program, is unquestionably the leader on this team. He doesn’t have to fill up the stat sheet but he needs to play his typical stone-wall defense on Roberson and create opportunities for his teammates. Mizzou has a tremendous opportunity to start out conference play 2-0 and keep the momentum churning into the weekend tilt with the Sooners. I expect this one to be a very tight game throughout but, like we’ve seen so many times in the Anderson era, the Tiger pressure, depth, and balance will be too much for a thin Texas Tech squad. For the first time in nearly a decade, the Tigers win in Lubbock, 82-75.
TIDBITS TO HELP YOU DOMINATE WATERCOOLER CONVERSATION
- A win would make it 9 straight and tie Coach Anderson’s longest streak during his tenure at Mizzou
- Mizzou has 9 players with 19+ assists on the season
- Mizzou is 3-2 on Wednesdays this season and Tech has yet to play a Wednesday game
- Mizzou’s Taylor, English and Ramsey are 2nd, 3rd and 4th in steals per game in the Big XII and overall the Tigers have 7 players averaging over 1 steal per contest.
- Bowers is averaging 15ppg off the bench in his last four games
- Mizzou is outshooting their opponents by 118 on the season (7 attempts per game) – this goes a long way in explaining why Mizzou has a slight rebounding deficit. Since 2/3 of all rebounds typically go to the defense, more shots potentially creates more rebounds for the opposition (unless you make them)
M-I-Z…
Even though Bobby Knight has been gone for a couple of years and his son, Coach Pat Knight, is at the helm, the General’s fingerprints are still all over this program especially
with the style they play. They are fundamentally sound and disciplined, above-average passers and tough on defense. They don’t rely on the 3-pointer like so many teams do these days and they are good from the free-throw line, getting 26% of their offense from the stripe. The Red Raiders might not have the best athletes in the conference but they are disciplined and work hard to get good shots. Tech has won 65% of their conference home games over the last 5 seasons and in that same time, Mizzou has struggled on the road, winning only 27.5% of their contests. Something of particular note for Mizzou fans is that Kansas has lost their last three road games in Lubbock so while it might not quite be Cameron Indoor, Tech is definitely a little better at home, as are most teams.Texas Tech really has two go-to guys, Jr F Mike Singletary (15.6ppg/5.9rpg/2.1apg) and Jr PG John Roberson (13.0ppg/5.5apg/1.7spg). One of these two have led them in scoring in 10 of their 15 games and if one is having a bad night, it could spell disaster for Tech because they just don’t have a lot of offensive weapons beyond that. Coach Knight plays these two a ton of minutes, especially in close games. Roberson has logged 35+ minutes in 11 games this season and 40+ in four. This early-season workload obviously takes a toll on anybody but especially a PG charged with navigating the Missouri Tiger press 70 times a game. His
conditioning/fatigue factor is something to keep an eye on. Roberson shoots as many 3s as 2s and converts the deep ball at an adequate rate of 37.5%. Singletary has seen a bump in his scoring from his sophomore season mainly due to his improved shooting and increased shots per game with the departure of graduated Tech guard Alan Voskuil. He is also the team’s second leading rebounder and will draw a lot of fouls. As these two go, so go the Red Raiders. I expect each to play nearly the whole game. The third scoring weapon, Jr G David Tairu (12.1ppg/3.4rpg/51.9% 3P), has been coming off the bench to give Coach Knight’s team a boost. He’s the team’s best shooter from deep although Tech only launches 13 treys a game, by far the fewest in the conference. Couple that with their mediocre-at-best conversion percentage from 3-point land, and it’s clear that Texas Tech is not built to mount a comeback when they’d need points in a hurry. Somebody would have to abnormally catch fire and that person could be Tairu. Perhaps the most athletic player for the Red Raiders is Jr F D’Walyn Roberts (8.1ppg/7.3rpg/1.3bpg). His game is in the paint and he leads the team in rebounds, blocks and dunks. He’s a 62% shooter from 2-point range but admittedly doesn’t shoot the ball a whole lot. In the middle, Tech starts Sr F Darko Cohadarevic (7.6ppg/5.1rpg). He plays about half the game and at 6’9” 242lbs, provides some size in the paint. He and Roberts combine for about 5 offensive boards per game. Sr G Nick Okorie (8.9ppg/2.1apg/1.4spg) is the starting guard opposite Roberson. He’s an adequate ball-handler but doesn’t have the upside of Tairu offensively. Reserve Jr Fs Brad Reese and Theron Jenkins round out the top 8 for Tech and Soph F Robert Lewandowski plays sparingly though he did lead Tech in scoring against Mizzou in Columbia last year with 16. Reese is the only one in the regular rotation who shoots less than 70% from the stripe and Jenkins grabs nearly 2.5 rebounds per game despite playing just over 11 minutes a contest. Reese has attempted the 2nd most 3s on the team, hitting only 25%.I think you’ll see a good matchup of English on Singletary and it will be interesting to see if Kimmie can match his physical game without getting into foul trouble. Safford and Ramsey will start out on Roberts and Cohadarevic initially and they have to keep those two off the offensive glass. Tech is not a great shooting team but Mizzou certainly can’t afford to give them second and third chances, especially on the road. Tech is not a perimeter-oriented team in terms of reliance on the 3-pointer. They get less than 17% of their total offense from deep but where they really excel is getting to the line a lot and converting. As opposed to Kansas State
who gets to the line more than anybody in the nation but doesn’t shoot that well, Coach Knight’s team will make you pay the price for fouling. So even though the Tigers go 9-10 deep and should have plenty of fouls to give without losing production, if they get into the kind of game they did vs Kansas State where it was just whistle after whistle, it might be the kiss of death. Also like K-State, Tech commits their fair share of fouls so Mizzou has to convert those into points on the road. In terms of ball-handling, Tech has more turnovers than assists on the season and that tells me all I need to know. Roberson and Okorie are above average with the ball but most of the other guys are very turnover prone. They really only play three guards in their rotation and if they, for whatever reason, have to call on true Fr G Mike Davis, that is an indication of some big-time trouble.Mizzou is one of the most defensively efficient teams in the nation, meaning teams score less on a per-possession basis than against most other teams. This increases the value of each possession for Tech on Wednesday night. I have no reason to believe Mizzou’s press will not work in this game unless they don’t get a chance to set it up by missing a ton of shots. As previously mentioned, 29.7% of their opponents’ possessions end up in turnovers and Mizzou contributes to that by stealing the ball 17.5% of the time. What that implies is “unforced errors” on the part of Tiger foes at a rate of 12.2% or about one out of every eight possessions. At a game played at Mizzou’s average tempo (roughly 74 possessions per game), that translates to 9 times when the offense throws the ball away,
travels, dribbles off their foot, gets a 5 second or backcourt violation…think about that for a minute and it kind of helps understand why Coach Frank Martin of Kansas State was shown numerous times going absolutely ballistic on the sidelines last Saturday. Who wouldn’t? When the announcers talk about Mizzou’s “cumulative pressure” during a Tiger broadcast (and when ESPN’s Steve Lavin does a game, you could make a drinking game out of this one phrase), this is exactly what they’re referring to. It’s not only physically exhausting but certainly mentally and emotionally as well. This is why Mizzou should have a chance to compete in every game, regardless of who their opponent is. Mizzou is able to defend with this kind of intensity and push the ball at every opportunity because of their deep, versatile bench. The Tigers have 10 players contributing 10+ minutes per contest and Coach Anderson makes no secret about the fact that he has “8 starters”. The Tiger bench logs the most minutes of any team in conference (41.2% of total minutes from players who did not start) and their bench contributes 45% to their overall scoring. Having talented guys like Marcus Denmon, Mike Dixon and Laurence Bowers coming off the bench has been invaluable for Coach Anderson and even role players like Miguel Paul and Steve Moore have really stepped up their contribution this season. This kind of balance serves as a great protection should one player get in foul trouble, come up with an injury or just have an off-night. The downside of that is that nobody has effectively stepped up as “the” go-to guy in crunch time of a “late and close” game. I think Kim English wants to be that guy and as the team’s leading scorer, I understand that. However great his skill and flair for the dramatic, I don’t think he’s displayed the basketball IQ and decision-making on a consistent basis to secure this role. I’ve been really impressed with Zaire Taylor, Marcus Denmon and Laurence Bowers of late but it’s really hard to prop up one of these guys without the rest since they really do play so well as a team. It will be interesting to see who has the ball in the waning seconds of a game when the Tigers have to make a shot to tie or win. I think it’s between English and Taylor at this time. Stay tuned.To win this game, the Tigers need to keep Tech off the foul line and manage their emotions on the road. They will force turnovers and create opportunities in transition and I think the rebounding will be pretty even. There is no such thing as an ugly road win in the Big XII and getting out of anywhere with a “W” will be at a premium thi
s season. I am looking for JT Tiller to step up and guide the Tigers through this challenge. Tiller, as the only four-year player in the program, is unquestionably the leader on this team. He doesn’t have to fill up the stat sheet but he needs to play his typical stone-wall defense on Roberson and create opportunities for his teammates. Mizzou has a tremendous opportunity to start out conference play 2-0 and keep the momentum churning into the weekend tilt with the Sooners. I expect this one to be a very tight game throughout but, like we’ve seen so many times in the Anderson era, the Tiger pressure, depth, and balance will be too much for a thin Texas Tech squad. For the first time in nearly a decade, the Tigers win in Lubbock, 82-75.TIDBITS TO HELP YOU DOMINATE WATERCOOLER CONVERSATION
- A win would make it 9 straight and tie Coach Anderson’s longest streak during his tenure at Mizzou
- Mizzou has 9 players with 19+ assists on the season
- Mizzou is 3-2 on Wednesdays this season and Tech has yet to play a Wednesday game
- Mizzou’s Taylor, English and Ramsey are 2nd, 3rd and 4th in steals per game in the Big XII and overall the Tigers have 7 players averaging over 1 steal per contest.
- Bowers is averaging 15ppg off the bench in his last four games
- Mizzou is outshooting their opponents by 118 on the season (7 attempts per game) – this goes a long way in explaining why Mizzou has a slight rebounding deficit. Since 2/3 of all rebounds typically go to the defense, more shots potentially creates more rebounds for the opposition (unless you make them)
M-I-Z…
Thursday, December 31, 2009
The Tigers go bowling for the 5th consecutive season and 6th of the last 7. For a lot of programs, and in an age where 68 D-I teams (over half!) play in a bowl game, this maybe isn’t big news. But for a Missouri Tiger program that didn’t experience a bowl game for 13 consecutive seasons (1984-1996) and only three such games in the next 8 seasons, this consistency is a great thing to see. Once you’ve resided beneath the floor inside the cellar of anything resembling meaningful college football, playing beyond the regular season schedule just doesn’t get old…and it’s not something that should be taken for granted. There has been a lot of chatter and sour grapes from some about the Tigers getting screwed over by the bowl selection process (for the 3rd year in a row) but Mizzou’s not in a position to politely decline a bowl invite because it’s beneath them or to ‘make a statement’ (and lately, you’re not either, Notre Dame, just saying).
The Texas Bowl will never be confused with the Orange Bowl or anything of similar ilk, but really once you get past about the top 8-10 bowl games, the name of the game means less than the opponent you draw and location for the fans who travel. In this respect, I think Mizzou got a pretty good draw. The opportunity to play one of the service academies is kind of cool and playing in the state of Texas, an area the Tigers recruit heavily doesn’t hurt. From a strategic standpoint, I find this game very interesting. You have the balanced spread attack of the Tigers and the intricate option ground-game for the Midshipmen. Let’s take a gander.
Navy is a run-first team. You could easily argue they’re a run-ONLY team. They average 272 yards on the ground per game, good for 4th in the nation. Their passing offense is dead last in D-I at a measly 71 yards per game. So you know Navy will run the ball. Then run some more. Then when you think you have them in a passing situation, they’ll still run. They run the ball on 89% of their offensive snaps (tops in the nation), average almost 58 attempts a game (2nd most) and have accumulated 40 TDs on the ground (3rd). They “only” average 4.7 yards per carry (24th). Navy’s offense starts (and generally ends) with Jr QB Ricky Dobbs. His decision-making in executing this offense has been nearly flawless this season. He’s run the ball 285 times for 1,026 yards (3.6ypc) and a D-I QB record 24 TDs. From a passing standpoint he has an adequate arm though both accuracy and the ability of his WRs are issues. In the limited times I’ve watched Navy play, I’ve seen him miss wide open receivers on numerous occasions and seen his intended targets drop easy completions. He’s completed just under 53% of his attempts this year but he’s only put the ball up 91 times. He’s thrown 5 TDs against 3 picks and averages just shy of 10 yards per completion. This is an impressive number but given how small the sample size is (7.6 attempts per game), it’s kind of misleading. It tells me that they use the element of surprise in the passing game to go after big chunks of yardage…which is supported by the 19.2 yards per completed pass. Dobb’s first option in running the Navy offense is to generally to give the ball to Jr FB Vince Murray up the middle. Murray has carried the ball 172 times for 925 yards (5.4ypc) and found the end zone 6 times. Murray is undersized for a fullback (6’1” 217 lb), as are most of the Mids based on the position they play. Most of his work is done between the tackles so it’s up to the Tiger DTs to stay upright and fend off the Navy cut-blocks and middle LB Will Ebner to make sure Murray is defended, first and foremost. They have to make sure Murray is accounted for (see: HIT HARD) every time he runs or fakes up the middle. Every time. When Dobbs pulls the ball away from Murray and proceeds down the line, he has the option to pitch it to any of three slot-backs that are likely to see action. Soph Marcus Curry (68/476/7.0/4) is their most potent weapon on the pitch and he’s also as “big play” as it gets from a receiving standpoint for the Mids (5 receptions, 190 yards, 38 ypr, 3 TDs). Sr Bobby Doyle (21/114/5.4/0) and reserve Fr Gee Gee Greene (37/224/6.1/0) will both likely see some touches out of the slotback position. However, as evidenced by the distribution of carries, Dobbs keeps the ball more often than not so it’s imperative that the Missouri defense play their assignment and account for their responsibility. Against an opponent like this, the second you have a mental lapse, try to improvise, or “guess”, you will get burnt. Dobbs is very skilled at running this offense and it will, in my estimation, be more mentally taxing to defend it than physically difficult. Mizzou has a distinct size and speed advantage across the board but Navy won’t beat themselves. They take the risk out of their offensive game-plan by keeping the ball on the ground and relying on Dobbs to run the offense. And, more times often than not, he holds onto it himself to avoid a fumbled exchange to the fullback or errant pitch. Navy has lost only 8 fumbles on their 753 rushing attempts on the year. By comparison, Mizzou has lost 7 fumbles on 300 fewer carries. They take excellent care of the football. Their 12 total turnovers lost are 6th fewest in the nation and their turnover margin is in the top 20. Navy’s O-Line averages less than 265 lb per man and they’re all between 6’1” and 6’4” – most definitely on the small side. What they lack in brawn they try to make up for in brains and scheme, utilizing cut-blocks and precision-timing to open running lanes for Dobbs & Co. *BREAKING NEWS*: Navy’s starting center, Eric Douglass, has been ruled academically ineligible for the bowl game and will be replaced by Brady DeMell. Douglass has started the last four games at C and DeMell has started one game this year and played in all 13.
Here’s how you can expect this one to play out when Navy has the ball. They want to control the ball and the clock and limit the possessions their opponents get. Their option attack isn’t designed to get huge chunks of yardage, but to just chip away and lull the defense into a mental mistake and take opportunistic shots downfield. This will be all about the discipline of the Missouri defenders, particularly the guys assigned to Dobbs and the pitch-man. They have to play their responsibility and not simply fly to the ball which is a departure from their normal defensive philosophy. Navy doesn’t protect Dobbs very well when they do pass, and it will be critical for the Tigers to make their presence felt in such situations from a pass-rush standpoint. With all the attention devoted to the run, I think you might see man-to-man pass coverage with maybe only one safety (if that) so the Tiger corners need to stick with their guy and not get tempted to come up in run support. As soon as you come up, Dobbs will float one over the top for a big gainer. This is crucial. Mizzou needs to be very smart and physical on the defensive side of the ball. The great thing for the Tigers is that they carry the 12th best rush defense in the country (96 yards per game) into this contest and shut down another phenomenal ground attack earlier this year in their win over Nevada. In that game, the Tigers held the Wolfpack to 218 yards on the ground, which is about 160 yards less than their average in their other 11 regular season games. I think Mizzou can and will control Navy on the ground, relatively speaking. Anything under about 200 yards allowed is definitely a WIN for the Tigers. If Dobbs has to drop back and pass 20 times this game, Mizzou will have this one well in hand.
On defense, Navy runs a 3-4 base with a rover, two corners and a free-safety. They bring a pretty stout run defense into the bowl game as well, allowing just under 127 yards per game, good for 38th nationally. Mizzou’s ground attack is slightly below average, statistically but it has picked up considerably recently as Blaine Gabbert’s ankle has healed, allowing him to pitch in. Navy has faced several potent ground games and some of the country’s top individual rushers so don’t expect Gabbert’s running ability or the trio of Derrick Washington, De’Vion Moore and Kendial Lawrence to strike fear in the hearts of the Mids. However, Navy is just small across the board and I am just not seeing how the Tigers don’t have ground success against these guys. The only reason they might not have a big statistical game on the ground is because they pass for a ton of yards. Just my take. Navy allows 207 yards through the air (48th nationally) and this is the area I think the Tigers will find the most success. From a personnel standpoint, their two leading tacklers are Sr ILBs Ross Pospisil and Tony Haberer. Both are Texas boys returning to their home state for their final collegiate football game. Identifying sack leaders for Navy’s defense is pointless as they rank in the bottom 20 for this stat nationally with a paltry 1.38 sacks/game but Soph DE Jabaree Tuani is a name to pay attention to as he is the team leader in that category with 3.5. In tackles for loss, they are dead last in the nation. Bottom line, if Navy gives Blaine time in the pocket, he will absolutely eat them alive, I don’t care how many defenders are in pass coverage…because he could tuck it and rip off 12-15 yard runs all game long against a 3 man front. Navy Sr OLB Ram Vela, though significantly undersized at 5’9” 197 lb, makes a lot of plays for the Mids and Jr Rover Wyatt Middleton always seems to be in the thick of things. Those are two names to watch out for. Another Midshipman who will draw a tough, tough assignment on Thursday will be Jr CB Kevin Edwards who will likely be assigned the unenviable duty of defending one of the nation’s elite receivers, Mizzou’s record-setting wideout, Danario Alexander. Edwards has good size for a corner at 6’2” 180 lb but can he keep up with the Tiger stud? It’s been a tough task for some of the better defenders in the Big XII this season and something tells me Danario is primed for another monster day as he plays his final game as a Tiger in his home state.
I think if Mizzou just simply “does their thing” and doesn’t get too one-dimensional early in the game, they should be able to execute their offense against Navy. After seeing the numbers that some other QBs put up on this Navy defense, I have no reason to think Blaine Gabbert shouldn’t approach or surpass 300 yards through the air.
On special teams, Navy is brutal on kickoff returns and pretty bad returning punts. Both teams have pretty good punters. Mizzou has a clear edge in any FG kicking conversation.
I want to give Navy the proper respect and consideration based on the unique offense they’re bringing to the table in the bowl game but I think the Tigers will be playing with somewhat of a chip on their shoulder and in tune with their assignments. I think it’s reasonable to believe that Navy is more excited to be in Houston playing in the Texas Bowl than Mizzou and that intangible may factor in, make the Tigers complacent or unmotivated, what have you…but I’m just not buying it will overcome the obvious talent disparity. I think the talent wins out in this one. I realize Navy beat Notre Dame who has a very potent offense…but the Irish run D is atrocious. I don’t think the Tigers will be caught underestimating this opponent like they might have done against Baylor earlier in the season and Northwestern in last season’s Alamo Bowl. If the Tigers play their assignments consistently, they will win this one handily. I’m calling it 41-14 Mizzou to get to 9-4 on the season. Happy New Year Tiger Fans!
TIDBITS TO HELP YOU DOMINATE WATERCOOLER CONVERSATION SHOULD YOU BE ONE OF THE UNFORTUNATE SOULS THAT HAS TO WORK NEW YEAR’S EVE.
Navy doesn’t have a receiver that has caught 10 passes this season. Mizzou has 5 with over 20 and Danario Alexander himself, has caught 10 or more 5 times this season including the last four games…
Navy is 2-0 in the state of Texas this year with wins over Rice in Houston and SMU in Dallas. Mizzou didn’t play in Texas in the regular season and went 0-2 against the two Texas schools they played.
This would be only the third time in school history a Navy team has won 10 games in a season if they pull off the upset.
The Texas Bowl will never be confused with the Orange Bowl or anything of similar ilk, but really once you get past about the top 8-10 bowl games, the name of the game means less than the opponent you draw and location for the fans who travel. In this respect, I think Mizzou got a pretty good draw. The opportunity to play one of the service academies is kind of cool and playing in the state of Texas, an area the Tigers recruit heavily doesn’t hurt. From a strategic standpoint, I find this game very interesting. You have the balanced spread attack of the Tigers and the intricate option ground-game for the Midshipmen. Let’s take a gander.
Navy is a run-first team. You could easily argue they’re a run-ONLY team. They average 272 yards on the ground per game, good for 4th in the nation. Their passing offense is dead last in D-I at a measly 71 yards per game. So you know Navy will run the ball. Then run some more. Then when you think you have them in a passing situation, they’ll still run. They run the ball on 89% of their offensive snaps (tops in the nation), average almost 58 attempts a game (2nd most) and have accumulated 40 TDs on the ground (3rd). They “only” average 4.7 yards per carry (24th). Navy’s offense starts (and generally ends) with Jr QB Ricky Dobbs. His decision-making in executing this offense has been nearly flawless this season. He’s run the ball 285 times for 1,026 yards (3.6ypc) and a D-I QB record 24 TDs. From a passing standpoint he has an adequate arm though both accuracy and the ability of his WRs are issues. In the limited times I’ve watched Navy play, I’ve seen him miss wide open receivers on numerous occasions and seen his intended targets drop easy completions. He’s completed just under 53% of his attempts this year but he’s only put the ball up 91 times. He’s thrown 5 TDs against 3 picks and averages just shy of 10 yards per completion. This is an impressive number but given how small the sample size is (7.6 attempts per game), it’s kind of misleading. It tells me that they use the element of surprise in the passing game to go after big chunks of yardage…which is supported by the 19.2 yards per completed pass. Dobb’s first option in running the Navy offense is to generally to give the ball to Jr FB Vince Murray up the middle. Murray has carried the ball 172 times for 925 yards (5.4ypc) and found the end zone 6 times. Murray is undersized for a fullback (6’1” 217 lb), as are most of the Mids based on the position they play. Most of his work is done between the tackles so it’s up to the Tiger DTs to stay upright and fend off the Navy cut-blocks and middle LB Will Ebner to make sure Murray is defended, first and foremost. They have to make sure Murray is accounted for (see: HIT HARD) every time he runs or fakes up the middle. Every time. When Dobbs pulls the ball away from Murray and proceeds down the line, he has the option to pitch it to any of three slot-backs that are likely to see action. Soph Marcus Curry (68/476/7.0/4) is their most potent weapon on the pitch and he’s also as “big play” as it gets from a receiving standpoint for the Mids (5 receptions, 190 yards, 38 ypr, 3 TDs). Sr Bobby Doyle (21/114/5.4/0) and reserve Fr Gee Gee Greene (37/224/6.1/0) will both likely see some touches out of the slotback position. However, as evidenced by the distribution of carries, Dobbs keeps the ball more often than not so it’s imperative that the Missouri defense play their assignment and account for their responsibility. Against an opponent like this, the second you have a mental lapse, try to improvise, or “guess”, you will get burnt. Dobbs is very skilled at running this offense and it will, in my estimation, be more mentally taxing to defend it than physically difficult. Mizzou has a distinct size and speed advantage across the board but Navy won’t beat themselves. They take the risk out of their offensive game-plan by keeping the ball on the ground and relying on Dobbs to run the offense. And, more times often than not, he holds onto it himself to avoid a fumbled exchange to the fullback or errant pitch. Navy has lost only 8 fumbles on their 753 rushing attempts on the year. By comparison, Mizzou has lost 7 fumbles on 300 fewer carries. They take excellent care of the football. Their 12 total turnovers lost are 6th fewest in the nation and their turnover margin is in the top 20. Navy’s O-Line averages less than 265 lb per man and they’re all between 6’1” and 6’4” – most definitely on the small side. What they lack in brawn they try to make up for in brains and scheme, utilizing cut-blocks and precision-timing to open running lanes for Dobbs & Co. *BREAKING NEWS*: Navy’s starting center, Eric Douglass, has been ruled academically ineligible for the bowl game and will be replaced by Brady DeMell. Douglass has started the last four games at C and DeMell has started one game this year and played in all 13.
Here’s how you can expect this one to play out when Navy has the ball. They want to control the ball and the clock and limit the possessions their opponents get. Their option attack isn’t designed to get huge chunks of yardage, but to just chip away and lull the defense into a mental mistake and take opportunistic shots downfield. This will be all about the discipline of the Missouri defenders, particularly the guys assigned to Dobbs and the pitch-man. They have to play their responsibility and not simply fly to the ball which is a departure from their normal defensive philosophy. Navy doesn’t protect Dobbs very well when they do pass, and it will be critical for the Tigers to make their presence felt in such situations from a pass-rush standpoint. With all the attention devoted to the run, I think you might see man-to-man pass coverage with maybe only one safety (if that) so the Tiger corners need to stick with their guy and not get tempted to come up in run support. As soon as you come up, Dobbs will float one over the top for a big gainer. This is crucial. Mizzou needs to be very smart and physical on the defensive side of the ball. The great thing for the Tigers is that they carry the 12th best rush defense in the country (96 yards per game) into this contest and shut down another phenomenal ground attack earlier this year in their win over Nevada. In that game, the Tigers held the Wolfpack to 218 yards on the ground, which is about 160 yards less than their average in their other 11 regular season games. I think Mizzou can and will control Navy on the ground, relatively speaking. Anything under about 200 yards allowed is definitely a WIN for the Tigers. If Dobbs has to drop back and pass 20 times this game, Mizzou will have this one well in hand.
On defense, Navy runs a 3-4 base with a rover, two corners and a free-safety. They bring a pretty stout run defense into the bowl game as well, allowing just under 127 yards per game, good for 38th nationally. Mizzou’s ground attack is slightly below average, statistically but it has picked up considerably recently as Blaine Gabbert’s ankle has healed, allowing him to pitch in. Navy has faced several potent ground games and some of the country’s top individual rushers so don’t expect Gabbert’s running ability or the trio of Derrick Washington, De’Vion Moore and Kendial Lawrence to strike fear in the hearts of the Mids. However, Navy is just small across the board and I am just not seeing how the Tigers don’t have ground success against these guys. The only reason they might not have a big statistical game on the ground is because they pass for a ton of yards. Just my take. Navy allows 207 yards through the air (48th nationally) and this is the area I think the Tigers will find the most success. From a personnel standpoint, their two leading tacklers are Sr ILBs Ross Pospisil and Tony Haberer. Both are Texas boys returning to their home state for their final collegiate football game. Identifying sack leaders for Navy’s defense is pointless as they rank in the bottom 20 for this stat nationally with a paltry 1.38 sacks/game but Soph DE Jabaree Tuani is a name to pay attention to as he is the team leader in that category with 3.5. In tackles for loss, they are dead last in the nation. Bottom line, if Navy gives Blaine time in the pocket, he will absolutely eat them alive, I don’t care how many defenders are in pass coverage…because he could tuck it and rip off 12-15 yard runs all game long against a 3 man front. Navy Sr OLB Ram Vela, though significantly undersized at 5’9” 197 lb, makes a lot of plays for the Mids and Jr Rover Wyatt Middleton always seems to be in the thick of things. Those are two names to watch out for. Another Midshipman who will draw a tough, tough assignment on Thursday will be Jr CB Kevin Edwards who will likely be assigned the unenviable duty of defending one of the nation’s elite receivers, Mizzou’s record-setting wideout, Danario Alexander. Edwards has good size for a corner at 6’2” 180 lb but can he keep up with the Tiger stud? It’s been a tough task for some of the better defenders in the Big XII this season and something tells me Danario is primed for another monster day as he plays his final game as a Tiger in his home state.
I think if Mizzou just simply “does their thing” and doesn’t get too one-dimensional early in the game, they should be able to execute their offense against Navy. After seeing the numbers that some other QBs put up on this Navy defense, I have no reason to think Blaine Gabbert shouldn’t approach or surpass 300 yards through the air.
On special teams, Navy is brutal on kickoff returns and pretty bad returning punts. Both teams have pretty good punters. Mizzou has a clear edge in any FG kicking conversation.
I want to give Navy the proper respect and consideration based on the unique offense they’re bringing to the table in the bowl game but I think the Tigers will be playing with somewhat of a chip on their shoulder and in tune with their assignments. I think it’s reasonable to believe that Navy is more excited to be in Houston playing in the Texas Bowl than Mizzou and that intangible may factor in, make the Tigers complacent or unmotivated, what have you…but I’m just not buying it will overcome the obvious talent disparity. I think the talent wins out in this one. I realize Navy beat Notre Dame who has a very potent offense…but the Irish run D is atrocious. I don’t think the Tigers will be caught underestimating this opponent like they might have done against Baylor earlier in the season and Northwestern in last season’s Alamo Bowl. If the Tigers play their assignments consistently, they will win this one handily. I’m calling it 41-14 Mizzou to get to 9-4 on the season. Happy New Year Tiger Fans!
TIDBITS TO HELP YOU DOMINATE WATERCOOLER CONVERSATION SHOULD YOU BE ONE OF THE UNFORTUNATE SOULS THAT HAS TO WORK NEW YEAR’S EVE.
Navy doesn’t have a receiver that has caught 10 passes this season. Mizzou has 5 with over 20 and Danario Alexander himself, has caught 10 or more 5 times this season including the last four games…
Navy is 2-0 in the state of Texas this year with wins over Rice in Houston and SMU in Dallas. Mizzou didn’t play in Texas in the regular season and went 0-2 against the two Texas schools they played.
This would be only the third time in school history a Navy team has won 10 games in a season if they pull off the upset.
Friday, October 30, 2009
COLORADO
Well, put me in the category of “glad those three games are in the rearview.” The worst nightmare has come true for the Tigers in October, going winless in their first three conference tilts, suffering a lingering injury to the most important player on the field and generally just playing like garbage most of the month. Their offense has gone stagnant to the tune of 12ppg (they’ve scored 3 total after intermission…that’s it, THREE freaking points in the second half of conference play). This dry spell in scoring is unfathomable and borderline comical. The last time the Tigers failed to score 20 points was the 2007 Big XII Championship Game in San Antonio when they were held to 17. The last time they went 3 consecutive games without scoring 20 points was 10 years ago, in the 1999 season, where the Tigers sandwiched a 14 pt outburst vs A&M between shutouts in Norman and Manhattan to close out that atrocious season. What’s at the root of this offensive free-fall? Well, it has to begin at QB…it always does, for better or worse. Gabbert has clearly not been good since Suh fell on his ankle in the first quarter of the Nebraska game. It’s obviously still a major major concern and an injury that I don’t think will fully heal this season unless he were to take an entire month off. Consequently, Gabbert’s completion pct has gone down by 20pts (66% to 46%), yards per game has dropped from 290 to 181 and yards per attempt has fallen from 8.9 to 5.3. But those are just peripheral numbers… the worst, most telling comparable is his TD/INT…11/0 in non-conference…2/5 since. Just awful.
The ankle injury which severely limits his ability to push off and drive the ball has noticeably affected his touch and accuracy. He’s also lost one of his best assets – his legs. His mobility is OK at best and he has almost zero ability to get out of the pocket and make something happen with his legs. The result is Gabbert trying to make plays relying on his arm strength alone and the normal zip on the ball isn’t there and he’s been off accuracy-wise a lot.
So, the passing game has hit the skids, surely the ground attack has buoyed the O. Fail. The rushing game has gone into complete hibernation. Save for a few stat-padding runs late in games and one drive vs Texas, Mizzou has sucked running the ball. In non-conference, they were getting just under 3.8ypg, which was pretty brutal to begin with, but that figure has fallen to 2.65ypg in conf games. They’re running the ball 8x less per game on average in conference play and, overall, they’re gaining only 78 yards per game, vs 143 in their first four games. It isn’t much of a surprise that ypg and ypc would drop as competition stiffens in conference play but these dramatic drop-offs are pretty significant. Mizzou’s third down conversion has fallen from a respectable 45% in non-con to 27% in Big XII play for an overall rate of 37% which is in the lower 1/3 of the nation. Their turnover margin has also gone to shit (+.75 in non-con; -2.0 in conf). You’re not going to win many games losing the turnover battle by two on average. The way I see it, it’s a perfect storm of shit.
The defense has stepped up to some extent…or at least they haven’t fallen nearly as dramatically or noticably as the Tiger offense. Yards per play, yards per game and total plays are about the same between non-conference and conference games. Passing yards allowed are identical at 218 per game (though ypa is up from 5.7 to 6.3 indicating bigger-gaining plays in conf games). The one area where the D is suffering in conference play, however, is the spot it matters most: points allowed. After holding non-conference foes to 15.5 ppg (lowest since 2006), that figure has more than doubled to 33.7 in the last three games.
The good news is that Colorado is the opponent this week and, no disrespect, but they’re just not that good. The Buffs are 10th or worse in conference in almost all major offensive and defensive categories including DFL (dead freaking last) in total O, scoring O and pass efficiency D. They are also DFL in punting, punt returns and sacks allowed. Bright spots? They’re OK on kickoff returns and sacking opposing QBs. They’re the only team in the BigXII averaging below 5 yards a play…and they’re way below that at 4.2ypp. Their D also allows the most yards per
play in the conference at 5.8. Statistically, they’re horrible, there’s just no two ways around it. I thought their loss early in the year at Toledo when they got absolutely embarrassed sealed the fate for this being Coach Dan Hawkins’ last year in Boulder but a surprise upset of Kansas two weeks ago might have bought him a little more time. I thought at the beginning of the season that both Colorado and Kansas State would win one game they absolutely had no business winning and, to me, Colorado already peaked with that win vs Kansas. (By the way, KSU’s 62-14 thrashing of Texas A&M was THEIR surprise win of the year but I’ll get to them in a few weeks). Coach Hawkins finally benched his son, Jr QB Cody Hawkins so Soph QB Tyler Hansen is running the offense now but he’s not exactly a remarkable improvement…though he has NOT thrown 11 INTs like Cody. Hansen (no relation to the “Mmmm, bop!” brothers from the 90s) can buy time with his legs and make some plays that way which is one of the main reasons for the switch. Colorado has one mediocre playmaker at receiver who’s really more of an energy guy in my 
estimation and that would be Jr WR Scotty McKnight. He’s caught 41 passes for 431 yards and 3 TDs. The other main receiving threat is Sr TE Riar Greer who has 29/350/3. Soph RB Rodney Stewart is the feature back for the Buffs, 467 yards on 120 carries (3.9ypc) and 6 TDs. He’s 5th in the conference in yards per game, but mostly because he fattened up on the non-conference schedule. He hasn’t done a whole lot since the start of BigXII play (ypg dropped from 90 to 66 and ypc from 4.6 to 3.2). Many are surprised to see him as “the man” in the backfield as his classmate, Soph RB Darrelll Scott was the NUMBER 1 recruit in the nation coming out of high school in 2008, according to Rivals but, for whatever reason, he just hasn’t panned out. Expect Scott to get a few touches on Saturday but don’t confuse this as a rotation, Scott is clearly the backup.
On the defensive side of the ball, there are a few players to keep tabs on at each level. Colorado traditionally has pretty solid linebackers and this year is no exception. Not superstars, but solid. Sr LB Jeff Smart leads them in tackles with over 8 per game. Sr LB Marcus Burton is a little more of a dynamic player, often coming on blitzes, tallying 4 sacks and 7.5 tackles for loss. Kind of lost in the shuffle is Jr LB BJ Beatty who has a PBU, 2 QB hurries and 2 sacks to supplement his 19 tackles on the season. Jr CB Jalil Brown has two picks on the year and 8 total passes defended (6 PBUs). Colorado only has 4 interceptions on the season – remember, this is the worst pass efficiency D in the conference. From the defensive line, Jr DE Marquez Herrod leads the Buffs in sacks (5.5) and TFL (8). It’s telling that 6 of the Buffs top 10 tacklers are defensive backs.
I think this game is going to come down to which offense gets going, more specifically, who can establish a running game to take pressure off the QBs. Colorado’s Hansen is still getting his feet set and not being relied on to win games for them – more of a “game manager” at this point but surely that will change in the near future. And obviously Missouri’s Gabbert is limited by a balky ankle. The offensive line play for the Tigers has been a little better in recent weeks, which is encouraging. This is the game where the Tigers have to put it on their O-Line and have them dominate en route to a victory. This unit has to play with a chip on their shoulder and not let Colorado near Gabbert. On the other hand, the play-calling needs to be modified to include an assortment of shorter passes, similar to what Chase Daniel did the past few years. Clearly Gabbert’s arm allows a more vertical attack but his accuracy is suffering and I just don’t think it’s a good idea to leave him back in the pocket, on a regular basis, for the length of time it requires for those plays to develop. I think you keep him firing short and then pick your spots going deep, using extra protection. I want to see more two-back sets out of shotgun. I'd like to see them try the pistol. The Tigers have to do a better job of going forward on 1st and 2nd down so they’re not sitting 3rd and 8, 3rd and 10, obvious passing downs, where the D sends 7 guys at full speed. This is the game that OL takes over and clears space for the running game to get going. Admittedly the Buffs rush D has been better in conference play and that’s the primary reason they were able to upset Kansas. Missouri just has to figure out how to run the ball this week and supplement that with short, high percentage passes. And for the love of God, when Gabbert puts the ball on your hands, you have to catch it. Seems like we have had our fair share of drops and the margin for error is too thin to do those things, especially on the road, in the middle of a 3 game losing streak. I think you put this one on the offensive line and the defense and protect Gabbert at all costs. The next two weeks, the Tigers face 2 of the worst rushing D’s in conference. It’s time to step up. I think Mizzou gets untracked and puts one in the win column for October, Tigers over Buffs 27-20.
So, the passing game has hit the skids, surely the ground attack has buoyed the O. Fail. The rushing game has gone into complete hibernation. Save for a few stat-padding runs late in games and one drive vs Texas, Mizzou has sucked running the ball. In non-conference, they were getting just under 3.8ypg, which was pretty brutal to begin with, but that figure has fallen to 2.65ypg in conf games. They’re running the ball 8x less per game on average in conference play and, overall, they’re gaining only 78 yards per game, vs 143 in their first four games. It isn’t much of a surprise that ypg and ypc would drop as competition stiffens in conference play but these dramatic drop-offs are pretty significant. Mizzou’s third down conversion has fallen from a respectable 45% in non-con to 27% in Big XII play for an overall rate of 37% which is in the lower 1/3 of the nation. Their turnover margin has also gone to shit (+.75 in non-con; -2.0 in conf). You’re not going to win many games losing the turnover battle by two on average. The way I see it, it’s a perfect storm of shit.
The defense has stepped up to some extent…or at least they haven’t fallen nearly as dramatically or noticably as the Tiger offense. Yards per play, yards per game and total plays are about the same between non-conference and conference games. Passing yards allowed are identical at 218 per game (though ypa is up from 5.7 to 6.3 indicating bigger-gaining plays in conf games). The one area where the D is suffering in conference play, however, is the spot it matters most: points allowed. After holding non-conference foes to 15.5 ppg (lowest since 2006), that figure has more than doubled to 33.7 in the last three games.
The good news is that Colorado is the opponent this week and, no disrespect, but they’re just not that good. The Buffs are 10th or worse in conference in almost all major offensive and defensive categories including DFL (dead freaking last) in total O, scoring O and pass efficiency D. They are also DFL in punting, punt returns and sacks allowed. Bright spots? They’re OK on kickoff returns and sacking opposing QBs. They’re the only team in the BigXII averaging below 5 yards a play…and they’re way below that at 4.2ypp. Their D also allows the most yards per
play in the conference at 5.8. Statistically, they’re horrible, there’s just no two ways around it. I thought their loss early in the year at Toledo when they got absolutely embarrassed sealed the fate for this being Coach Dan Hawkins’ last year in Boulder but a surprise upset of Kansas two weeks ago might have bought him a little more time. I thought at the beginning of the season that both Colorado and Kansas State would win one game they absolutely had no business winning and, to me, Colorado already peaked with that win vs Kansas. (By the way, KSU’s 62-14 thrashing of Texas A&M was THEIR surprise win of the year but I’ll get to them in a few weeks). Coach Hawkins finally benched his son, Jr QB Cody Hawkins so Soph QB Tyler Hansen is running the offense now but he’s not exactly a remarkable improvement…though he has NOT thrown 11 INTs like Cody. Hansen (no relation to the “Mmmm, bop!” brothers from the 90s) can buy time with his legs and make some plays that way which is one of the main reasons for the switch. Colorado has one mediocre playmaker at receiver who’s really more of an energy guy in my 
estimation and that would be Jr WR Scotty McKnight. He’s caught 41 passes for 431 yards and 3 TDs. The other main receiving threat is Sr TE Riar Greer who has 29/350/3. Soph RB Rodney Stewart is the feature back for the Buffs, 467 yards on 120 carries (3.9ypc) and 6 TDs. He’s 5th in the conference in yards per game, but mostly because he fattened up on the non-conference schedule. He hasn’t done a whole lot since the start of BigXII play (ypg dropped from 90 to 66 and ypc from 4.6 to 3.2). Many are surprised to see him as “the man” in the backfield as his classmate, Soph RB Darrelll Scott was the NUMBER 1 recruit in the nation coming out of high school in 2008, according to Rivals but, for whatever reason, he just hasn’t panned out. Expect Scott to get a few touches on Saturday but don’t confuse this as a rotation, Scott is clearly the backup.On the defensive side of the ball, there are a few players to keep tabs on at each level. Colorado traditionally has pretty solid linebackers and this year is no exception. Not superstars, but solid. Sr LB Jeff Smart leads them in tackles with over 8 per game. Sr LB Marcus Burton is a little more of a dynamic player, often coming on blitzes, tallying 4 sacks and 7.5 tackles for loss. Kind of lost in the shuffle is Jr LB BJ Beatty who has a PBU, 2 QB hurries and 2 sacks to supplement his 19 tackles on the season. Jr CB Jalil Brown has two picks on the year and 8 total passes defended (6 PBUs). Colorado only has 4 interceptions on the season – remember, this is the worst pass efficiency D in the conference. From the defensive line, Jr DE Marquez Herrod leads the Buffs in sacks (5.5) and TFL (8). It’s telling that 6 of the Buffs top 10 tacklers are defensive backs.
I think this game is going to come down to which offense gets going, more specifically, who can establish a running game to take pressure off the QBs. Colorado’s Hansen is still getting his feet set and not being relied on to win games for them – more of a “game manager” at this point but surely that will change in the near future. And obviously Missouri’s Gabbert is limited by a balky ankle. The offensive line play for the Tigers has been a little better in recent weeks, which is encouraging. This is the game where the Tigers have to put it on their O-Line and have them dominate en route to a victory. This unit has to play with a chip on their shoulder and not let Colorado near Gabbert. On the other hand, the play-calling needs to be modified to include an assortment of shorter passes, similar to what Chase Daniel did the past few years. Clearly Gabbert’s arm allows a more vertical attack but his accuracy is suffering and I just don’t think it’s a good idea to leave him back in the pocket, on a regular basis, for the length of time it requires for those plays to develop. I think you keep him firing short and then pick your spots going deep, using extra protection. I want to see more two-back sets out of shotgun. I'd like to see them try the pistol. The Tigers have to do a better job of going forward on 1st and 2nd down so they’re not sitting 3rd and 8, 3rd and 10, obvious passing downs, where the D sends 7 guys at full speed. This is the game that OL takes over and clears space for the running game to get going. Admittedly the Buffs rush D has been better in conference play and that’s the primary reason they were able to upset Kansas. Missouri just has to figure out how to run the ball this week and supplement that with short, high percentage passes. And for the love of God, when Gabbert puts the ball on your hands, you have to catch it. Seems like we have had our fair share of drops and the margin for error is too thin to do those things, especially on the road, in the middle of a 3 game losing streak. I think you put this one on the offensive line and the defense and protect Gabbert at all costs. The next two weeks, the Tigers face 2 of the worst rushing D’s in conference. It’s time to step up. I think Mizzou gets untracked and puts one in the win column for October, Tigers over Buffs 27-20.
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