4-0...

Again, no such thing as an ugly win. And this one wasn't really ugly, just "slow-developing" (see: Running Game, Mizzou)

Nevada gave Mizzou the game I knew they could and the Tigers still came out on top.

Kaepernick did NOT get to his magical 7.0 yards per play threshhold. I am not sure if I spelled that right but I'm plenty deep in Busch Light and not about to check so we'll just assume I know what I'm doing. By my rough mathematical skills, he passed 28x for 146 and ran 13 for 59...so that's 41 plays for 205...not close to 7 per play. in fact. it's exactly 5 per play. Sayonara Kaepernick.

Any time you win by 10 on the road, regardless of the opponent, you take it and go home happy. This is no different. But there are some definite areas of concern. 78 rushing yards and 2.3 yards per carry is a HUGE concern. Clearly NV's strategy was to kill the run and make Gabbert beat them with his arm. While I wholeheartedly disagree with that philosophy from a strategic standpoint (um, have you watched film there Wolfies?) kudos to them...it worked. This one is on the O-Line. They're just not creating the running lanes. I don't know what else to really say about that. NV has two stud DE's but in the Big XII season, the Tigers are going to face some pretty talented defensive lines and the inability to effectively run the ball is a big issue. Pay no mind to D-Wash's 16 for 75 (4.7ypc) - all of it came on a 42 yard run in the 4th. Absent that, we're talking 15 for 33...barely 2 per carry. HAS to improve. One dimensional attacks might work vs the worst Pass D in the nation (Nevada) but not against Nebraska, OSU and Texas. Fair warning. Another thing is the play calling, more specifically the 2-pt conversion calls. Pay attention. Under no scenarios, absent a complete lack of all placekickers on one's roster, should you EVER go for 2 in the first 3 quarters of a football game. For me, this is a hard-and-fast rule. Until the 4th quarter, no need to chase points. Take your PAT and move on. I am dumbfounded at the necessity to try and make it a 7pt game that early in the contest. Especially when you have an offense that you know will score more. Seriously, take the point.

On the good side. Mr. Gabbert, despite being off, by my estimation, for a lot of the night - overthrowing DA twice in the end zone, missing Perry and Jackson in the end zone and Perry another time down the seam, plus throwing a prayer under pressure right into the Nevada secondary - despite all that....he was freaking M O N E Y tonight. His scramble-pass to DA for his first TD and his roll-out fling to Kendial Lawrence down the right sideline for a huge completion were ab-so-lutely unbelievable. To even ATTEMPT those throws shows giant gonads. I'm sorry, but if our QB last year did that, the Tigers fly home from Reno 3-1 instead of 4-0. No disrespect, but, once again, that's the difference that elite arm strength makes. And uncanny confidence in one's receivers.

So at the end of the day, here we sit with our Tigers 4-0. Most didn't predict this. I would've taken 3-1 back in August. The hairy part of the schedule looms with the conference season beginning and three straight games against ranked opponents. It's a new season, come October 8th when the Huskers come to Columbia. I think Nebraska is overrated, I'll just put that out there right now. I think their QB is mediocre at best, Helu is a solid back and Ndamoanbaonaoinoneaiobinaoeihoaboiaoejuoadkhalogg Suh is a real threat on the interior DL. Not impressed with their early season wins and not surprised by their loss at Va Tech (who will get ROLLED by Miami on Saturday). It's 13 days out but I'll go 31-20 Missouri at this point. I'm not convinced UL-Lafayette won't give them all they can handle on Saturday...

And with that, I bid thee farewell. Big fraternity golf tournament tomorrow. Time to pound some water and mentally prepare for a complete blood-bath tomorrow.

(Last thing...Wainwright can sew up the Cy Young with a dominant performance on Saturday)

NEVADA PREVIEW

Wow. Big game. Primetime. ESPN. Only show in town. Nevada has sputtered to an 0-2 start…finally back in Reno for their first home game. 30-some thousand screaming Wolf Pack fans decked out in white. Mizzou has to travel halfway across the country. Sounds like a recipe for an upset…if this were 2004. But it’s not 2004 (and this is not Troy). This Tiger program has grown leaps and bounds under coach Pinkel since those days. They will not peek past Nevada to the next kind-of big rivalry game in primetime on their schedule, who shall go nameless at this point. Expect them to be focused and ready to handle the task at hand. On paper, this is a pretty one-sided looking matchup, given the early season results, but we’ll take closer look.

When Nevada has the football
Jr QB Colin Kaepernick directs the Wolf Pack offense. He is the reigning WAC offensive Player of the Year and was the preseason pick this year for the same honor. In 2008 Kaepernick threw for 2,849 yards and 22 TDs (7 INT) and rushed for 1,130 and another 17 scores. He’s off to a much slower start in 2009, throwing for 400 yards and 1 TD (4 picks) while rushing for only 63 yards through two games. On the bright side, his completion pct has risen from 54% to 61%, but he seems to be finding guys in the wrong color jersey an awful lot. Last season, Missouri held Kaepernick to only 223 yards of total offense which was his 2nd lowest output on the year. As he goes, so go the Wolf Pack…the magic number for him is 7 yards per play. Since 2008, Nevada has lost every game when Kaepernick’s averaged under 7 yards per play on his aggregate pass and rush attempts. They’re undefeated when he hits 7+ yards a play (7-0). Coming into last year’s game in Columbia, Nevada was dealt a devastating blow with the loss of RB Luke Lippincott to a season-ending ACL tear the previous week. Lippincott’s absence opened the door for RB Via Taua who went on to rush for over 1,500 yards and 15 TDs. Both are back this year with Taua (Jr) as the feature back and Lippincott (6th year Sr) getting time at RB, WR and H-Back/TE. Taua has rushed 32 times for 209 yards and 2 TDs (6.53ypc). He’s also caught 5 balls for 42 yards out of the backfield. Lippincott didn’t touch the ball in the 35-0 loss at Notre Dame but logged 9 carries for 52 yards (5.78ypc) last week vs Colorado State. Lippincott hasn’t caught a pass yet on the year. Fr WR Brandon Wimberly is finally getting his shot to play after grayshirting in 2007 and redshirting last year. He caught 2 passes against ND and then had a big game last week vs CSU, catching 7 balls for 104 yards and a late score. Soph WR Tray Session leads the team in receptions with 12 after getting only 1 catch as a freshman last year. WR Chris Wellington is the leading returning receiver from a season ago but only has 6 catches thus far in 2009. Wimberly and Session are 6’3” and have wiry builds while Wellington is a couple inches shorter and sturdier. Jr TE Virgil Green has caught 6 balls on the year after hauling in only 13 a year ago as the starter. His strength is in using his 6’4”, 240lb frame to block. The offensive line has two tackles and a guard that have played together for the better part of two seasons. Their center is a senior starting for the first time and the other guard is a redshirt freshman who made his college debut in their season opener.

Nevada is a team that wants to run the football. They were 3rd in the nation running the ball last year with nearly 280 yards per game and a robust 6.1 ypc. They have 3 players on their roster who have 1,000 yard rushing seasons under their belt – I don’t think another team in America has ever been able to say that. But unfortunately for the 2009 Wolf Pack, they have been playing from behind too much to lean on the run as much as they’d like. In 2009 they’re down to 161 yards per game and 5.4 ypc. A season ago they ran the ball nearly 60% of the time. This year, that ratio is down to less than half at 48%. When forced to throw, bad things tend to happen, as evidenced by Kaepernick’s 4 picks in 2 games. In fact, ball security has been a huge issue for the Wolf Pack as they’ve turned the ball over 8 times thus far (against zero takeaways). Clearly if Mizzou can corral the Wolf Pack ground game, they should have great success on defense. The Tigers are allowing 105.7 rushing yards per game and 3.2 ypc… improvements over their numbers a season ago. Two things though – it’s still early and rush D wasn’t the issue in 2008. To draw a comparison to an earlier opponent of the Tigers, from a strategic standpoint…Illinois came in wanting to establish a running game vs Mizzou but wasn’t able to do it. My point is that both teams know that Nevada’s strength is in running the ball and the 2009 Tigers have already proven capable of shutting down another run-oriented team. If they force Kaepernick to throw a lot, they will win fairly handily I would guess. On first down the Wolf Pack run the ball 60% of the time but are only averaging 5ypc, forcing them into more passing situations on subsequent downs. For comparison, the 2008 Nevada squad rushed for nearly 7 ypc on 1st down. On 2nd down they have become a 60% pass team which is somewhat befuddling because on their 2nd down rush attempts they’re still ripping off 5ypc. So logic dictates that, on average, if they run the ball two times, they’ll get a first down. I think this might be a strategic flaw in their play-calling. Given the lack of success in the passing game thus far, I would be running the ball until Missouri, or anybody, proved they could stop me. Even down a few scores, don’t abandon what you do best. From Missouri’s defensive perspective, I would cram the box and make Kaepernick throw it. It’s also worth mentioning that Nevada is 115th in the nation in scoring offense at 10 points per game.

When Nevada is on defense
Their strength on D is in their two Jr DE’s: Kevin Basped and Dontay Moch. They combined for 21.5 sacks in 2008 and Nevada is the only team to return two players with double-digit sacks from last year. Moch already has 3 TFL on the young season and 1 QB hurry. Sr MLB Mike Bethea is the team leader with 18 tackles. He’s flanked on the strong side by Soph James-Michael Johnson and on the weak side by Soph Brandon Marshall. They have 3 seniors in their secondary including S Jonathon Amaya who is 2nd on the team with 16 tackles. This has not been an impressive defense so far this year. And if you cringe at the memories of the 2008 Tiger pass D, consider the Wolf Pack were dead last in the nation in passing yards allowed with almost 312 per game. Not much improvement this year as they have the worst pass efficiency defense in the country. Considering Mizzou has the 13th best pass efficiency ranking and the highest rated passer in a conference that tends to air it out and it’s clear that this mismatch cannot bode well for Nevada. They’ve allowed 7.2 yards per play this season, 6th worst in the nation. Most of that damage has been done through the air as Nevada’s opponents are averaging 12.7 yards per pass attempt…dead last in the country. Think about that for a second. That is a staggering number. I expect it to come down as the year progresses but that just blows my mind. They’re also not stopping the run particularly well, allowing nearly 180 ypg (99th in nation) on the ground and 4.4ypc (92nd - both numbers in bottom quartile). Nevada’s Total Defense of 440ypg and 35pts allowed are bottom 15 in the nation. Sure, Notre Dame is one of the better offensive teams around but Colorado State is nothing special and they still scored 5 TDs on the Wolf Pack. Obviously the 5 turnovers had something to do with this and I expect Nevada to play better at home but let’s not confuse this D with the 1985 Bears. Some more numbers for you…Nevada is bottom 20 nationally in 3rd down defense allowing a conversion rate 46%. Opposing QBs are completing nearly 85% of their pass attempts against Nevada on 3rd down. Couple this with Nevada’s 1.2 ypc allowed on 3rd down and it’s clear to me that Mizzou should be thinking pass, pass and more pass this Friday Night on 3rd down. 25% of completions against Nevada’s defense have gone for 25+ yards. That is ridiculous. My point with all this drivel is this: There will be ample opportunities for Mizzou to exploit this defense both on the ground and in the air. Sure the Wolf Pack could throw some exotic looks in there, like the Cover 4 that Bowling Green tried that kind of threw Gabbert for a loop early on, but I trust the coaches will pick up on such things and make the appropriate adjustments in a similar fashion.

This is another game in which Mizzou’s talent should win out. Their offensive strength plays against Nevada’s biggest defensive weakness and there is not a counter matchup to offset that. That Nevada running game will eventually bust out this season, that I’m sure of. If they run for 160-180 yards this week I will not be that surprised. I’m still not sure that’s enough to beat Mizzou because they haven’t shown they can put points on the board to this point. They are scoreless in the first half this year and if Mizzou can get out to a 10-0, 14-0, 17-0 type start, this one could turn ugly. For Nevada to win, they have to run the ball a ton, try to keep Mizzou’s D on the field for 10-12 play drives and chew clock. We all know the explosiveness of the Tiger offense. They’re not built to win the time of possession game, but they are improving from last year’s average of 25:49 (2nd worst in the nation). Nevada will line up in that pistol formation (short shotgun set for Kaepernick, Taua/Lippincott set back about 4 yards further – Mizzou ran this last year) and try to run different things out of that. Disciplined assignment football is the key this week on D. One area of concern I have for Mizzou is the penalties. They had more penalty yards vs Furman (75) than they’ve had since 2007. They’re averaging 6 penalties a game and 55 yards in penalties – those figures need to improve.

The only other thing that really concerns me in this contest is the intangibles and those can play out huge in college football. This is the Wolf Pack’s first home game and it is nationally televised on ESPN. It’s a fan “white-out”. They’re playing a team that absolutely wiped the floor with them a year ago. They are winless on the year and the pre-season WAC #2 team is being labeled as a huge early disappointment. Do not sleep on this team. They have talent and experience and a good coach. They will turn it around this year and be fine in their conference. As previously stated, this is the kind of game that, 4-5 years ago, would’ve made me uncomfortable all week but no more. This Tiger team seems prepared to play every week and until they show otherwise, I’m going to assume they’ll be ready to handle their business in Reno Friday night. I’m calling this one for Missouri, 41 – 20.

TIDBITS TO HELP YOU DOMINATE WATERCOOLER CONVERSATION

Nevada’s opponents have yet to attempt a field goal this year…because they’re 3 for 3 on scoring TDs in the red zone.

Nevada Fr RB Mike Ball is the WACs leading KO returner with a 32.8 yard average

Mizzou punter Jake Harry holds the 10th highest average in the nation at 45.1 yards.

JGD mancrush Blaine Gabbert leading the conference in passer rating…a stat that I will never fully understand how to calculate (anybody else feel like it’s kind of just made up?)

BREAKING NEWS: there were no “West Side Story” style brawls this week on campus involving Mizzou Football players vs Mizzou Basketball players. Just to clear the air on that. Might check Lawrence, KS for their report. Can't we all just get along?

Only because the wife was watching it last night...

I'm a sucker for reality TV and especially any of the "competition/talent" shows. I used to justify this behavior to the wife just having it on in the background and me being forced to watch. You know, I try to be fair since I normally monopolize our main TV with sports 24/7 but after some reasonably substantial soul-searching, I am prepared to admit that I kind of enjoy some of these shows...

So I caught the second night of Dancing With the Stars last night and to be perfectly honest, it was somewhat entertaining watching these celebs get thrown around a dance floor with reckless abandon. The professional female dancers are worth the price of admission alone in my estimation but last night it was the pro guys with their women stars and this is how I would handicap them after their first night, in reverse.

8. Macy Gray - first of all, didn't realize she's 42. Had her pegged about 6-8 years younger. She is a gigantic woman. Seriously she towers over all the male pro dancers. She couldn't look less interested. If she's not booted tonight, I'll be shocked

7. Kathy Ireland - Oh baby it's been a long way back since you, Elle McPherson and Rachel Hunter changed my world with the 1994 SI Swimsuit Cover...welcome back, missed you terribly. Oh yeah, dancing, not so much your thing.

6. Melissa Joan Hart - You remember her from Sabrina the Teenage Witch - I remember her from Clarissa Explains It All. Oh the joys of a youth spent glued to Nickelodeon.

5. Debi Mazar - Shawna from Entourage kind of does it for me a little bit. I think it's the accent and the sharp tongue. But a dancer, she is not.

4. Kelli Osborne - I thought for sure she'd be the worst but she was actually quite decent. I can't get enough gratuitous Ozzie shots in the audience. I hope they give him 15 seconds to mumble incoherently into the mic every week - that would be awesome.

3. Natalie Coughlin - one thing about the athletes and olympians - normally they get extremely competitive in this competition. She'll be right in the thick of it.

2. Joanna Krupa - she doesn't suck to look at but she's kind of the 2nd best in a mediocre to bad bunch. She got the best partner, Derek, whose job REALLY doesn't suck.

1. Mya - she's hands down the best female star at this point, not even close.

We'll get back to football shortly. Appreciate the lattitude.

3-0

Mizzou won and won handily. Hard to read a whole lot into this game given the obvious difference in size/speed/talent but good to see the Tigers do what they were supposed to. I liked that the offense was balanced (36 runs / 35 passes) and that a lot of 2nd stringers got meaningful minutes. Not really too concerned about Furman's offensive output, specifically their 305 passing yards. When you build a lead like that, the other team is going to throw it a ton.

Onto Reno, NV Friday night. Nevada is 0-2 and this is their home opener...nationally televised night game...think they'll be more than a little jacked up for this one?

More on Nevada later...

FURMAN PREVIEW

I think an introduction to Furman University is necessary. Furman is a private university in Greenville, South Carolina. It is the oldest and largest private academic institution in SC and one of the top liberal arts colleges in the U.S. I’m sure it doesn’t hold a candle to the “Harvard of the Midwest”, aka Truman State University, home of the fighting Wildcats, er, Bulldogs but I digress. Furman was founded in 1826 and enrollment is approximately 2,550 undergraduate and 525 graduate students. Athletically Furman competes in the Southern Conference (SoCon) of the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS, formerly Division I-AA). Their mascot is the Paladins, which, according to Wikipedia, were the “twelve peers and foremost warriors of Charlemagne’s court”…so they have THAT going for them. Consistently, the Paladins have been one of the more dominant - SORRY. I. JUST. CAN’T. DO. IT…executive decision: I’m referring to them as “FU” for the remainder of this piece, seriously, PALADINS??? – anyway FU is one of the better FCS teams but are coming off a down year in 2008 (7-5 overall, 4-4 in conference). In week 1 they handled Presbyterian 45-21 and won their conference opener on Saturday at Chattanooga 38-20.

When Furman has the ball
FU returns 7 starters from a spread attack that averaged 361 yards and 25 points per game a year ago. Thus far in 2009, they’ve averaged 416 yards and scored 41.5. They had some growing pains in 2008, their first year of the spread offense. They run more than they pass and so far in 2009 they’re relying on 5-8, 206 lb Soph RB Tersoo Uhaa to carry the load. He’s rushed for nearly 5 yards per carry and scored four touchdowns. Entering the season, Uhaa was set to play second-fiddle to returning rushing leader Mike Brown but the senior RB has been out with an ankle injury for the first two games and will not play vs Mizzou. True Fr Jerry Williams will spell Uhaa from time to time in the backfield and is a weapon as a receiver as well. Sr QB Jordan Sorrells is in his 2nd year at the helm of the offense and is an accurate passer at 71.4% on the season with 4 TDs against 2 INTs. The lefty, Greenville native, is backed up by UCLA transfer Soph QB Chris Forcier (older brother of True Fr Michigan QB Tate Forcier – that information is free…). Right now there is no QB controversy with FU but Forcier is a speedster and in a game like this, look for him to be in for a handful of snaps perhaps as a receiver or in some sort of Wildcat package. Forcier made his debut in last week’s game and logged 29 yards on 3 carries. Receiver targets include Jr Adam Mims who doubles as their return guy, Sr David Hendrix and Sr RJ Webb, who is returning to action after missing most of 2007 and 2008 with separate ACL injuries. Tennessee transfer, Soph Tyler Maples has already contributed in his first season for FU. Sr TE Chris Truss is an All SoCon performer and might be the only one on their roster with D-1 size at his position (6-4, 264). He’s caught 34 balls in his career for 470 yards and 7 TDs. The FU Offensive Line lost both tackles and their center from a year ago but have improved their ypc figure by 33% from a year ago. Their line averages 6-2, 278 lbs. This season they’re about 60/40 run, but last week in their win vs UT-Chattanooga, they were closer to 2:1 run. Mizzou will have to do a better job of stopping the run at the outset this week than they did against Bowling Green.

When Furman is on defense
Furman only brings back 4 starters from 2008’s defense that allowed 346 yards and 22 points per game. In their first two games, they’re allowing 373 yards and 20.5 pts. As with the offense, FU broke in a new defensive scheme in 2008, moving from a 4-3 base to a 4-2-5 alignment. This philosophy essentially replaces a linebacker with a theoretically faster defensive back and is one of the “en vogue” defenses to counter the myriad of spread offense attacks permeating college football. This switch allowed them to cut nearly 10 points and 50 total yards off of their 2007 defensive stats. Two names on their D-Line to look out for are Sr NT Justin Brown who leads the roster in starts and is an All SoCon performer and Jr DE Shaun Van Rensburg, who has good size (6-4, 250) and led the team in sacks a year ago. Their D-Line averages 262lbs, which is about 45 lbs a man they’re giving up against Mizzou’s O-Line. This has to be an area Mizzou looks to attack – running the football. This should be a huge advantage for the Tigers. The FU back 7 include two new starters at LB, Sophs Kadarron Anderson and Chris Wiley. The name to watch on the PU defense is Jr Max Lerner who plays the rover position which is likely some sort of safety/linebacker hybrid. He led the team in picks a year ago with 4 and has already grabbed another one last week on the first snap from scrimmage, returning it 43 yards for a score.

Lest you think FU is going to get all knock-need and queasy entering the Zou on Saturday night, you should know that they traveled to Virginia Tech last season and didn’t get completely blown out (24-7 loss). Sure they’re the lower division and Mizzou should pound them but I don’t think we’re looking at a game like SEMO last year where the 3rd string Tigers could beat them by 40. But let’s not get crazy. The bottom line is that these kids (collectively) are NOT Division 1 athletes. I am sure some of them could have played at that level, I’m sure some were recruited by bigger schools, hell they have guys on their roster that left schools like UCLA and Tennessee to play for Furman…but Mizzou CLEARLY should have the athletic advantage over these guys. I am not suggesting it is a show-up, flash your black jerseys, get a few growls out of the sound system and BOOM, 50 pt blowout, but if Mizzou just plays their game, this isn’t a remotely close game. Cannot look past and completely dismiss them (see: Michigan vs Appalachian State 2007), but let’s be real here. The talent discrepancy is far too great. I could go on but what’s the point. If Mizzou doesn’t handle them fairly easily, well, the Illinois game was the aberration, not Bowling Green. I’m calling this one 45-13 Tigers.

Quick note from the Tiger injury front: backup RB De’Vion Moore likely out again with high ankle sprain, hoping to be back at it for Nevada next Friday. Reserve LB Jeff Gettys tore his ACL against BGSU, he’s done for the year. Safety Hardy Ricks has a bum ankle but should be back full strength by Saturday. Jarrell Harrison (JuCo safety transfer) has missed all action to this point with a dislocated elbow – he’s been cleared to play but not sure what kind of utility he has with the arm yet.


TIDBITS TO HELP YOU DOMINATE WATERCOOLER CONVERSATION

Furman’s starting Right Guard is named Heath Cockburn. I can’t make this stuff up.

FU hasn’t allowed a rushing TD this season. I expect that to be a memory by about 1:27 pm CST.

Furman QB Jordan Sorrells and I share a birthday (ironically enough, we share that birthday with North Korean leader Kim Jong Il). This is all free information, you don’t have to pay for any of it!!!

Sean Weatherspoon is the Big XII leader in tackles with 11.5 per game – that’s good enough for T-12th nationally. Also, Spoon was actually born in Greenville, SC (home of FU) but only lived there 6 months. Spoon’s mom was a student at FU for a short period of time.

Aldon Smith is 6th nationally in TFL yardage (4 tackles for loss, 29 yards)

A win is a win is a win...

It was ugly but I'll take an ugly win over a pretty loss, whatever that means. In college football, unlike the NFL, style points DO count in the eyes of AP voters. You know what doesn't count though? Strength of schedule...no such thing in CFB. But that is an entirely different conversation. Regardless, the Tigers dropped out of the Top 25 less than 5 days after making their debut. Through my Busch Light-induced semi-haze, here's what I think I saw going on last night in Columbia, aka God's country...

- My man-crush on Boy Wonder Gabbert isn't dissipating but I noticed AGAIN that he's locking on his primary receiver almost exclusively. I have no idea how simple they're trying to keep things for Blaine but if you stare down your receiver from snap to throw every single time, bad things will happen. He made some really ill-advised throws into traffic last night when there were receivers wide-open elsewhere. He's not even giving the "I'm consciously looking the other way but I'm 100% positive I'm still going to the primary" look. Locking on the receivers can work fine at Clydesdale Park (represent!) for Saturday morning pickup games but not so much in college football. Again, I don't know what he saw or what his progressions were, this is just my view from 120 miles away. I rock at armchair QB.

- One more on Gabbert...he seems to not have a very good sense of the rush. I think he feels that it's coming quicker than it really is. Numerous times vs BGSU he got happy feet and rolled out when he could've stepped UP and found somebody downfield. The tackles were forcing the rushers outside and eventually behind him so moving laterally still put him at risk of being hit from behind. I know he can run and that's a great weapon to have but he had more time to step up and throw. Perhaps this is related to my first point - he locks on, that guy is blanketed, roll out and run. I don't know. Interested to see how this plays out in the coming weeks.

- Ground game looked pretty good. Nice to see D-Wash get some rhythm and I think K-Law is going to be a very exciting player. He looked really fast to me. Still wish some of the rushing plays wouldn't take so long to develop and in particular the way K-Law was receiving the zone-read handoffs, he was actually running backward when he got the ball so he had to turn nearly 90 degrees to attack the edge. Looked funny - probably some small footwork thing.

- For the second week in a row, the Tigers opted to use their front 4 on their own to apply pressure on the QB instead of sending blitzers. Worked pretty great vs IL, not as well vs BGSU. The 2 sacks were nice (total loss of 23 yards) but Sheehan is a more accurate passer than Juice and not as prone to tuck and run - he (Sheehan) was able to stay back there and fire short completions...at least for much of the first 3 quarters. Completely different story in 4th Q.

- There were many points in the game that I started thinking, boy this defense is sure starting to look like last year all of the sudden and I can't quite put my finger on it...combo of lack of identifiable pressure on Sheehan, open receivers and missed tackles.

- There were many points in the game that I started thinking, boy this QB is a true sophomore starting his first home game after a scintillating debut. I'm sure he was amped up, trying to do too much. Still, that arm-strength is a thing of absolute beauty.

- 25% conversion rate on 3rd down isn't going to cut it. Through 2 games, the Tigers are 13 of 33 (39%) in coverting 3rd downs. When they've chosen to run the ball on 3rd down, they're 8 for 12 (75%). When trying to pass, the conversion rate is 5 of 21 (24%). Sure this is all predicated on distance to gain the first down but I'm recalling numerous predictable WR bubble screens on 3rd and intermediate (4-9 yards to go) and in those down-and-distance situations our (my) hero has completed 3 of 7 for a whopping ONE TOTAL YARD and nary a first down conversion. Same down-and-distance, the Tigers have RUN the ball thrice for nary a first down conversion (10 total yards). That's 10 chances and not a single conversion on 3rd and 4-9 yards to go. What the hell is it about 3rd and intermediate??? Methinks Los Tigres ought identify some go-to 3rd and "4-9" plays.

- Hard to believe the Tigers won a game in which they lost the turnover battle 2-0? Not really. Since 2006, the Tigers are 7-8 overall when losing the turnover battle and 4-4 when losing it by 2. Oh, and Mizzou has won all 18 games played since 2006 when winning turnover margin. Now I understand why this was a point of emphasis for the coaching staff in pre-season. Turnover margin went from +13 in 2007 to -4 last season.

- This was a game that the Tigers of 5-6 years ago probably loses. I think the entire attitude and expectations of and for the program has taken a dramatic and noticeable turn for the better since then and that was evident watching the nearly 70,000 fans scream their heads off on 3rd downs and not file out to their tailgates for a refill when the Tigers were down early. Seriously, some of the early Pinkel teams would've folded and chalked the game up as "not our night" and taken the "L". This complete attitude/expectation adjustment is a bigger factor than many realize I think. I honestly am ALMOST completely over waiting for the proverbial "other shoe" to drop with this team and program. When you've seen 5th downs, kicked balls and phantom holding calls cost your team victories, you're conditioned to expect the worst to happen to you at the worst possible effing time.

That's about all...Furman University comes to Columbia on Saturday. Without looking, who can give me their mascot/nickname?

BOWLING GREEN PREVIEW

The Bowling Green Falcons arrive in Columbia 1-0 after overcoming a 14-0 deficit in the 2nd quarter to beat Sun Belt Conference favorite Troy 31-14. Before we go any further, Troy is legit. They were a bowl team a year ago and had the top defense and #2 offense in their conference. So let’s not confuse Troy with some pushover chumpster team. This was a big win for Bowling Green, make no mistake. Player of the game was Sr WR Freddie Barnes who caught a school-record 15 balls for 157 yards and two scores. That was good for MAC player of the week honors. You probably already know that Bowling Green has beaten Mizzou the last two times they’ve played, a fact Pinkel has said he’d be sure to hammer home this week. You might even know that the Tigers are 1-3 historically against the Falcons. But what you might not know about this Falcon crew is that they went 6-6 last season, only missing a bowl berth due to their loss at Northern Illinois. They went 5-2 on the road (losses at Boise St and Northern IL), knocking off a Pitt team (in Pittsburgh) that would finish 9-4. Point: they have played in big environments against good teams before – I don’t expect them to be intimidated.

When Bowling Green has the ball…
Sr QB Tyler Sheehan is at the helm of the offense, his third year as a starter. He has thrown for over 6,400 yards and 45 TDs in his career, completing 65% of his passes. Pretty good numbers. He led the team in carries and ran for 7 scores last year. As previously mentioned, Freddie Barnes (their top returning receiver) had a breakout game in the first week so the Tigers must keep an eye on him. Also note that Barnes threw 2 TDs in 4 pass attempts last year – watch out for him on trick plays (double-pass, end-around pass…) Another target, Sr WR Tyrone Pronty is out with broken foot. He hauled in 6 receptions vs Troy. Some other WR that will see time but didn’t get in the mix a ton vs Troy are Sr Chris Wright, Soph Adrian Hodges and Soph Ray Hutson. Sr TE Jimmy Scheidler had only 15 catches a year ago, 7 going for TDs. Sheehan found him 4 times last week for 72 yards. Overall they’re returning 6 guys with 10+ catches a year ago. On the ground, they go with a 2-back approach. Jr RB Willie Geter, is their little scatback (5’ 8”, 170lbs) and has averaged 6.3 ypc in his career. Sr RB Chris Bullock (5’11”, 218 lbs) is the other half of this duo – 4.4 ypc in his career. The Falcon offensive line returns 3 starters, two of whom are 5th year seniors. They have some good experience on offense. They have a first-year Head Coach in Dave Clawson who was with the Tennessee Volunteers as the O-Coordinator in 2008. Prior to UT, he was head coach at Richmond College (Football Championship Subdivision formerly known as D1-AA) from 2004-2007 and there he won two Coach of the Year awards. The Tennessee offense was a hot mess last year, near the bottom of the SEC in all statistical categories, no experience at the QB position, etc. (In a delicious twist of irony, UT is #1 in total offense after week 1 with 657 yards vs perennial POWERHOUSE Western Kentucky…who I actually believe is only in their 2nd year of D1, 2-10 a year ago…I think they join the Sun Belt conference in 2010 but I’m getting sidetracked here.) For what it’s worth, Clawson’s pass/run ratio a year ago was only 43% passing, however, in week 1 vs Troy, Bowling Green threw the ball on 44 of 72 snaps (61%). Attribute that to an experienced QB in Sheehan as well as the fact that they were trailing early in that game. They were 4 for 13 in converting 3rd downs and only faced one 3rd and short (1-3 yards) so they passed on 11 of those snaps, completing 6 but only half of those yielded first downs. For the game they averaged 1.8 yards per carry. Again, that Troy defense is pretty solid, but this is still not an impressive number. They want to pass the ball but aren’t quick to abandon that run. They trailed for nearly half the game and during the time that they were losing, they ran the ball 18 times (out of 28 total rushes). Seems a little backward – running the ball when behind and passing more when ahead…but hey, it worked. They have a Fr K, Jerry Phillips, who made his only attempt, a 21 yarder.

When Bowling Green is on defense…
The Falcons lost 8 starters on defense from a decent 2008 squad. In their conference, they finished 2nd in Total D (5th vs run and 2nd vs pass) and 4th in scoring D. That total D number from a season ago, 343 yards allowed per game, put them in the middle of the pack nationally. They start 3 senior LB: Jerret Sanderson, Cody Basler and James Schneider. The Falcons are undersized and inexperienced on the defensive line, starting four new guys. This should be an area Mizzou can exploit in the running game going up against the big Tiger O-Line (avg 6’4”, 308lbs). In the secondary they bring back senior safeties PJ Mahone and Jahmal Brown. Mahone led the team in tackles a year ago. At CB, they have a rotation going including Sr Roger Williams (who collected a team-high 10 tackles last week), Jr Robert Lorenzi, Soph Keith Morgan, Soph Adrien Spencer and a freshman duo of Tim Moore and Jonathan Davis. Sr Punter Nick Ivonelli was a 3rd team all-MAC performer last year with a 40+ average. He punted 5 times for 37.6 yards last week.

How I see it going down…
Mizzou has the athletic advantage in every facet of this game. I am interested to watch how the DE trio of the Smiths and Coulter get pressure on Sheehan and if the Tigers rely on predominantly four rushers like they did last week vs IL. The Bowling Green O-Line allowed only 1 sack to Troy last week – Mizzou will try to turn up the heat, in my estimation, a little more than they did against Juice Williams because Sheehan isn’t the runner that Juice is. Losing a possession receiver like Pronty will force somebody to step up but let’s not confuse this receiver corps with what IL threw at the Tigers last week, with or without Benn. I think Gettis will draw Freddie Barnes, and after watching him play vs the Illini, I’m liking my chances with that matchup. He just looks like a different player this year (must be the 15lbs he dropped). I don’t see Bowling Green running the ball on Mizzou effectively given their lack of success against Troy a week ago (1.79 yards per carry) and how Mizzou played against Illinois (3.14 ypc allowed). Conversely, I see the Tigers having a much better ground game against the youthful (and light) Falcon D-Line. You’re going to see superior players in the trenches for Mizzou on both sides of the ball, which will make a huge difference in the running game. Expect Washington to have a big game, something in the 120-140 yard range. I would imagine Kendial Lawrence, as the 2nd string back this week, will get double digit touches. The Tiger rushing attack will force the safeties to play up, opening a lot of spots for Gabbert to go downfield to his talented receivers. Those two safeties are good ballplayers and have some experience but the corners are still getting their feet wet in D1 football. Danario is 5” taller than any corner on their roster so there are some built-in size mismatches that the Tigers can exploit. Overall, this is a good mid-level opponent for Missouri in their 2nd game…possibly the best test they’ll have overall in the non-conference season after seeing Illinois basically roll over and play dead after the first quarter and seeing that Nevada got spanked by 5 TDs at Notre Dame. This is certainly not a 100% pushover game but I think Coach Pinkel has excelled in the past 3-4 years at getting his team ready to play every week, especially against lesser opponents. Back in the day, you could bet that Mizzou just wouldn’t show up for a game each year that they were supposed to win but I’d like to think those days have passed. The team seems focused and appears to still have a chip on its shoulder. I like that. Hope it stays there all year. For a final, I’ll go Tigers over Falcons, 43-17.

TIDBITS TO HELP YOU DOMINATE WATERCOOLER CONVERSATION

Mizzou is 4-0 under Pinkel the week after beating Illinois, with an average margin of victory in those games of 31.25pts

8 Tigers made their first career start last week vs Illinois (Gabbert, Kemp, Hoch & Wuebbels on offense; Resonno, Gachkar and Rutland on defense; also Ressel the kicker)

Speaking of Ressel, allow me to introduce you to the conference leader in FG/game…

JGD man-crush Blaine Gabbert leads the Big XII Conference in passing efficiency, completion pct, TD passes and bicep girth for starting QBs

MAN-CRUSH OR BRO-MANCE? TOUGH CALL

Indeed, the answer is RELOADING. What an impressive and dominant win for the Tigers. Really what more needs to be said? All of the questions I had coming in were answered in a resounding way, at least for one game. The offense appears to have not missed a beat from the Chase Daniel heyday and (gasp!) they might even be better than the last two years. The defense looks much improved. I’m cautious to get too excited after one game and I know the Illini were essentially missing their top two tailbacks and all-everything WR for the majority of the game, but still. The Tiger secondary kept things in front and made all the plays despite the front 4 not getting a ton of pressure on Juice, especially early. They forced him to sit back in the pocket and throw the ball to beat the Tigers and he just couldn’t do it. He missed numerous wide open receivers, there were drops and there was some shoddy blocking in the IL running game. I think they shot themselves in the foot plenty of times. But give due credit to the Tiger D. By almost any measure, this performance was a dramatic improvement over what we saw a year ago.

Missouri's Defensive Improvement
Rush Yards allowed: (125.7 yards [in 2008] vs 110 yards [vs Illinois])
Passing Yards allowed: (286.4 yards vs 215 yards)
Total Yards allowed: (412.1 yards vs 325 yards)
Completion % allowed: (64.1% vs 59.5%)
Yards per Carry allowed: (3.6 ypc vs 3.1 ypc)
Yards per Pass Attempt allowed: (6.9 ypa vs 5.8 ypa)
Yards per Play allowed: (5.3 ypp vs 4.5 ypp)
3rd down conversion % allowed: (45.9% vs 37.5%)
4th down conversion % allowed: (51.9% vs 0.0%)
Scoring Defense: (27.2 ppg vs 9 pts)
TOP (defense on field): (35:11 vs 30:06)

If the Tiger D puts up numbers like that consistently this season, look out. Those are top 20 numbers on the defensive side of the ball. Again, it’s just one game but it’s not like the Tigers were playing a sucky DI-AA blood-donor school (Florida, I’m looking at you). I would wager Illinois doesn’t get held to single digits in points again this season. Just a hunch.

If there is one small area of slight concern it’s that the Tiger running game seemed a little stifled. Washington didn’t seem to have that burst and kind some of the plays took a while to develop. He did bust a nice long run late in the game which helped his overall numbers but for most of the day, he was laboring for every yard. Moore never quite seemed to get things going either and ended up with a high ankle sprain late in the game which will keep him out of this week’s action. I did LOVE seeing the two-back set in shotgun and liked Gabbert going under center on sneaks. There’s a huge difference between a 6’5” 240lb QB trying to get a yard and one who’s realistically 5’11” 200lbs. SuperSoph Blaine Gabbert certainly passes the eye-test for what a big-time college QB should look like. No disrespect to Mr. Daniel because he did unprecedented things for the program…but Gabbert’s size and arm strength allow him to do things that Chase (and Brad Smith before him) simply couldn’t. On the 3rd and 22 in the first quarter he threw a bullet off his back foot to DA to ensure a more manageable field goal attempt. And on the Kemp TD, well, I’m sorry, but Chase just doesn’t complete that pass. His TD toss to Jackson was made as he was backpedaling yet it was still on a rope. I thought he was very poised for the most part, overcoming some early pressure. He moved well in the pocket to avoid pressure and obviously ran nicely, both on designed keeper/read-option plays and scrambles. Aside from a couple early plays where he kind of casually flipped a ball out on a screen when pressure was coming and then got penalized for grounded it the next play (I think they were consecutive plays), Gabbert played mistake free football and I’m really nitpicking with those two. Tremendous composure displayed in that environment considering it was the guy’s first start. Oh, by the way, no big deal, but he leads the conference in completion pct (75.8%), TDs (3) and QB Rating (186.96). I am trying so desperately to temper my rapidly developing man-crush on BG but it’s proving to be quite the challenge.

Anyway, great win for the Tigers…but it’s just one. More to come on the next opponent in a day or so, the Bowling Green Falcons, who came from behind to beat Sun Belt Conference favorite, Troy, 31-14.

4TD Win for the Tigers

...and the answer is "RELOADING".

ILLINOIS PREVIEW

Illinois
9/5/09

College football season is once again upon us and with that brings my weekly drivel about why Mizzou is the most awesomest team in the world. OK, I’ll try to be at least somewhat objective but welcome to the season, nonetheless. For the third straight year, Mizzou opens with their rivals to the east, the fighting Illini of Illinois.

2008 Game Recap…
Mizzou grabbed an early lead, gave it back briefly in the 2nd quarter, then Maclin returned a 99 yard kickoff return for a score and Mizzou never trailed again. They tacked on 2 TDs late in the first half to build a 31-13 halftime lead. The Tigers kept Illinois at arm’s length the rest of the game, with a last second Juice Williams TD pass closing the final margin to 52-42 in favor of Mizzou. The teams combined for nearly 1,100 total offensive yards (770+ in the air). This was the 4th consecutive “Arch Rivalry” game Mizzou has won over Illinois in the Dome and the Tigers are 15-7 against the Illini all-time.

2009 Illinois Preview…
IL returns a ton of guys with experience and if I’m being honest, this is as good of a chance to beat Mizzou as they’ve had since Brad Smith’s debut in 2002. Up and down their first and second teams it’s juniors and seniors whereas Mizzou is a lot of sophomores and juniors. Mizzou has 7 senior starters, one reserve senior and a senor punter. But first, we’ll look at IL.

When Illinois has the ball…SR QB Juice Williams is a four-year starter who threw for 3,100 yards (to lead the conference) and rushed for over 700, tops on the team. We all remember him firing missiles all over the Mizzou secondary last season. He has a big time arm and plays well outside of the pocket. He’s not afraid to tuck and run but has improved as a passer each year. Jr Eddie McGee is an able back-up who led a valiant effort in the 2007 Arch Rivalry game after Juice got knocked out. Jr WR Arrelious Benn broke 1,000 yards receiving and is an all-conference performer despite the fact that he’s only found the end zone 5 times as a receiver in his first two seasons. He is big, he is fast, he is strong (broke a ton of tackles against Mizzou last year) and Juice absolutely loves to find him. They even have a promotional website together, kind of cute: www.7-to-9.com). Draft Ninja, Mel Kiper Jr has Benn (aka Rejus) as a top 10 pick in the 2010 NFL draft if he comes out, which I imagine he will if he has any kind of respectable season. Florida Gator transfer, Jr WR Jarred Fayson, makes his Illini debut vs the Tigers and most sources think he and Benn make up the most talented WR tandem in the Big 10. Hard for me to disagree with that...but we’re talking about the Big 10, which is far from a prolific passing conference. Sr WR Jeff Cumberland is poised to be a big contributor in the passing game. The 6’5” target missed the Mizzou game a year ago with a foot injury. Expect Juice to look his way near the goalline. One-time CB Chris Duvalt and AJ Jenkins add depth to their receiving corps. Duvalt had 2 TDs against the Tigers last year. Sr TE Michael Hoomanawanui is considered an NFL-type TE and was good for 2+ catches a game a year ago. Illinois was the leading passing team in the Big 10 and I see no reason why they won’t challenge for that distinction once again, given the weapons they have returning. However, as a matter of perspective, their 269.3ypg in the air would’ve landed them at 8th I the Big XII. The Illini have a variety of options at running back that figure to see significant time. Their lead back should be Senior Daniel Dufrene who rushed for 663 yards, yet scored no TDs on the ground. (He was also their 2nd leading receiver in terms of receptions - 30, behind Benn’s 67 - and scored 2TDs that way.) Dufrene dinged up his ankle recently in practice and, in all honesty, he might not be their best RB – I won’t be surprised if he’s not “the guy” as the season progresses. Goal line ground opportunities in 2008 were mainly given to Belleville, IL native (and former Tiger recruit) Soph RB Jason Ford. He banged out 8 touchdowns on just 81 attempts for 294 yards. It appears that Champaign native Soph Mikel Leshoure has made a strong push to unseat Dufrene in camp so expect him to see some touches against the Tigers as well. Word is that true Freshman RB Justin Green has been impressive and will likely play this year, though not necessarily against the Tigers. Troy Pollard is another name to look out for out of the Illini backfield. So it appears they have a couple different options at tailback. New offensive coordinator (Schultz, formerly from TCU) is a fan of the one-back, double-tight, double-wideout set and rumor has it they like the speedy freshman Green as the tailback in that spot. Pay attention to that to see if it turns out to be the case. Illinois returns 3 starters on their offensive line, however two of them are in the midst of position switches (LT Jeff Allen from RT and C Eric Block from LG). Outland Trophy candidate, Sr Jon Asamoah, anchors the line at RG but has missed considerable time during camp with a sinus infection but returned to practice late last week and will be ready for the Mizzou game. Overall they ran the ball more than they passed (54% of the time). The Illini were middle-of-the pack in rushing success, relative to their conference. 5th in rushing yards per game and 6th in yards per carry. Overall, they had the second best total offense per game in the Big 10 (438.8).

When the Illini are on D…Illinois is anchored by Jr LB Martez Wilson who is moving to middle LB after playing OLB last year. Over the last three seasons, Illinois MLBs have led the Big 10 in tackles (J Leman twice and Britt Miller last year). Soph LB Ian Thomas will run alongside Wilson on the strong side. Thomas, they say, is built a little more like a traditional Big 10 linebacker and will push Wilson for the title of leading tackler. Thomas is a first-year starter but they’re expecting a very big season out of him…and Wilson, obviously. Jr Nathan Bussey and Soph Russell Ellington will see time at weakside linebacker. They return a lot of experience, but three new starters, on the defensive line with DE’s Doug Pilcher (Sr), Clay Nurse (Jr) and Antonio James (Sr) and DT’s Jr Josh Brent (returning from suspension after DUI last spring and 30 days in jail), Soph Corey Liuget, Jr Daryle Ballew and Sr Sirod Williams. They’re very high on the D-Line, especially on the interior. Lots of depth there. Illinois led their conference in sacks per game (2.67) but they tallied only 2 in their last 3 games. Despite this, their coaches have preached in camp of the importance in getting to the QB, assumedly in big games. The Illini posted only 1 sack against Mizzou last year, only got 1 in their loss at Penn State and didn’t log any against Ohio State or Northwestern to finish out the year (both losses). In their 5 wins, they averaged 4.2 sacks a game against only 1.57 in losses. This is a critical success factor for the Illini (and probably any) defense. Their returning defensive players totaled 11.5 sacks last year, 36% of their total. They lost a lot of production from their defensive line. In the secondary, big hitting Safety, Jr Donsay Hardeman is returning from a late-season neck injury. He’ll be paired with Jr Garrett Edwards. Their starting cornerbacks are Sr Dere Hicks and Soph Tavon Wilson. Secondary was a huge area of concern for the Illini defensive coaching staff, despite the presence of NFL 1st rounder Vontae Davis, as the team surrendered 64 pass plays of 15+ yards. Couple that with the fact that IL allowed a league-low 200 completions, and you can see why there’s a legit concern over the big play. 32% of completed passes went for 15+ yards. I have no idea how that ranks nationally but seems pretty high. Missouri’s pass defense, largely regarded as being “porous” (to put it kindly) a year ago allowed 373 completions, 85 of which went for 15+ yards for a “big” pass play percentage of 23. This is far from scientific but I found it interesting. Illinois also intercepted only 6 passes a season ago, third lowest in the nation. Six. (really!) Teams only completed 200 passes not because there were tons of incompletions against IL (58.5%, 4th worst in Big 10 – remember, it’s a running conference), it’s because everyone and their brother was running the ball down their throats. They were 3rd worst in their conference, allowing just under 153 yards per game. Obviously this is another area they need to improve upon. Mizzou ran for 226 on the Illini a season ago and passed for 323, the most total yards the Illini gave up by a wide margin (127 yards). Illinois’ defense was just very very average a year ago…and as a Missouri fan, I would have gladly accepted that for the Tiger defense…but that’s a later topic.

The sense I’m getting from doing some homework on Illinois is that they feel very settled with their offensive playmakers and are pretty comfortable with their offensive line, despite the position changes and missed time in camp. I am glad that Mizzou gets to go against this OL in Week 1 vs Week 7 or 8 when they’ve really jelled. I’m not at all sold on them yet, especially against Mizzou’s projected style on D (speed). On the other side of the ball, I see them as cautiously optimistic about their defense. They have great expectations but with a number of new starters, it’s just hard to say. I can draw a lot of parallels between 2009 Illinois and 2008 Missouri – both teams have/had offenses far superior and decorated than their defenses. Both teams are/were coming off a poor defensive year and expecting a rebound. It didn’t happen for the Tigers last year – I hope it doesn’t for IL either…at least for one game.

2009 Mizzou Preview
Is this a rebuilding year or has the Tiger program turned the proverbial corner and begun “reloading”? No question Mizzou’s a lot younger and less experienced than a year ago. You don’t lose 23 players including guys like Maclin, Daniel, Moore, Coffman, Hood, Brown and Sulak and not expect to take a step backward. The question is, how far will that step backward be…if at all? Won’t know that after one game…it’s one of the things that will make this season so exciting.

When Mizzou has the ball…Going into 2006, count me among the many who were skeptical about Chase Daniel taking over for Brad Smith at QB. I knew he had talent but I thought he was a little cavalier and reckless on the field and would turn out to be more the spunky, plucky, scrappy type than the stud he was his 3 years as starter. If you’ll allow me a baseball comparison, I pegged him as more David Eckstein than, well, NOT David Eckstein. Say what you will about the faux-hawk, chinstrap beard and backwards cap, the guy was amazing running Mizzou’s offense. But the Chase Daniel era is over now and here we are breaking in another QB. I read somewhere that Soph QB Blaine Gabbert is the first 5-star player that will play a game for Mizzou (Chase was 3-star). So he’s coming in as highly-heralded as anybody in the history of the program. Sure sounds like reloading to me. Yes it’s a lot of pressure for a kid to live up to but he has all the tools, he’s had a year in the system and he’s been able to learn alongside the greatest passer in Missouri football history. Reports out of camp were very good from a variety of media covering the Tigers regarding Gabbert. He didn’t throw a pick during any of the three scrimmages and has developed a good chemistry with the receivers. Gabbert’s time is now. As he goes, so go the Tigers this year. The depth is not there at QB this year like it was in the past when Daniel had Chase Patton waiting in the wings. Gabbert has not taken a real meaningful snap in college to this point but then again nobody else on the roster has at the QB position. If Gabbert (who had ankle and shoulder issues in high school) goes down, I’m afraid the season will follow. For the record, former walk-on Jr Jimmy Costello is the official backup and after the dismissal of Blaine Dalton last week, true Fr Austin Glaser is QB3. Costello separated himself as the #2 early in camp but if either of these guys see the field, something went wrong or we blew Illinois out and I really don’t see the latter happening on Saturday. Not a lot of stats to throw out here with the QBs, so we’ll move on to one of the real strong points of the Tiger offensive attack this year…I’d like to introduce to you the best backfield tandem in the Pinkel era: Jr RB Derrick Washington and Soph RB De’Vion Moore. D-Wash was a beast for Mizzou last year despite playing with a banged up knee for the better part of the year (177 carries, 1,036 yards – 5.85ypc – 17 TD). His 74ypg was good for 4th in conference (all of whom are returning by the way). D-Wash was a threat in the passing game as well, racking up 277 yards on 29 catches and a couple of TDs. D-Moore averaged 5.6ypc on his 41 carries (1 TD) a year ago, better numbers than Derrick put up his first year. These two were both in the 2007 recruiting class (Moore took a redshirt in ’07) and I think this could be one of the more formidable 1-2 RB combinations in the conference over the next two seasons. OU’s Murray/ Brown clearly the class of the Big 12 at this point, then maybe OSU’s Hunter/Tolston. If the Tigers get that kind of production out of their top 2 backs, that is a very good sign when working in a new QB. Word is that the Tiger coaching staff is not looking at Moore as Washington’s “backup”, more like he’s got two #1 running backs at his disposal. I am looking for big things out of “Double D” (yes, that is a JGD original) – something in the neighborhood of 1,800 yards and 22-25 scores combined for these two would be a pretty solid year. Running 3rd string is true Fr Kendial Lawrence from Rockwall, TX. Kid ran for 4,400+ yards and scored 64 TDs his final two years of high school, averaging 9+ a carry. This guy is going to be good too, but admittedly unproven but he is not red-shirting and will likely see action vs Illinois. Obviously D-Wash is the top returning offensive producer for this team and a key cog to the success of this team. I think the staff feels more comfortable with some of the other guys at RB than a season ago which should help keep him fresh down the stretch. Not a knock at Jimmy Jackson or last season’s version of De’Vion Moore, but everything I’ve seen points to the backfield being a major strength for this team. It’s starting to look like this is another “reloading” position for the Tigers. At the WR position, the 2009 Tigers have a lot of players with potential to be great but not a lot of proven on-field production. Question marks are all over the place. Can Sr WR Jared Perry take another step forward for his final year and become a key part of the offense? Who is going to be Gabbert’s go-to guy when he needs a critical 1st down? Can Sr WR Danario Alexander blossom into a big-time playmaker in this conference? Maybe more importantly, can he stay on the field? Injuries have been a huge issue for Danario during his time as a Tiger. When healthy, he’s an absolute gamebreaker and possibly an all-conference receiver. He has an NFL, athletic body that the Kipers of the world will be drooling over should he have a big year. He’s not going to put up J-Mac numbers but I’m looking for something in the neighborhood of 55-60 catches and 800+ yards with double-digit touchdowns. Soph WR Wes Kemp moves into a starting position this year after having a great camp. Sounds to me like he’s a more athletic version of departed former walk-on Tommy Saunders in that he won’t blow you away with any one attribute (speed, hands, jumping ability, strength) but he is solid all the way around. I really don’t know what to expect out of him and on some level I’m bummed that the Tigers burned his redshirt last year so he could catch exactly one ball for 15 yards in a lopsided win over SEMO but that’s neither here nor there. After those three guys, any of a number of receivers could see the field vs IL and most likely will play at some point this year. For sure, Soph TE Andrew Jones and Soph WR Jerrell Jackson will get plenty of looks in this offense and they return with the most on-field production: 29 catches for 244 yards between the two of them. Beyond that, virtually nothing is known beyond the practice reports from camp. True Fr WR L’Damian Washington has looked very good but is not expected to play vs IL and might redshirt. Soph WR Rolandis Woodland has tremendous raw talent but needs more polish. He should get some snaps. Soph WR Brandon Gereau and True Fr WR TJ Moe are working their way back from injuries this summer to possibly be in the mix. Names to also watch out for are RS Fr Gahn McGaffie, True Fr WR Jaleel Clark, Soph TE Michael Egnew and Soph WR Beau Brinkley. The bottom line with the receivers (TEs included) is that Mizzou will need somebody unexpected to step up big this year. I think you know what you’re going to get with Perry and probably Alexander as well, considering they have 3 years experience each. Beyond that is big fat wild card. Mizzou lost 272 receptions for 3,164 yards and 30 TDs off of the 2008 squad with the departure of Maclin, Coffman and Saunders (Jackson and Goldsmith as well). Those are some MONSTER shoes to fill. Who’s it gonna be? The starting offensive line, from left to right, will be LT Elvis Fisher, LG Austin Wuebbels, C Tim Barnes, RG Kurtis Gregory (lone Sr starter) and RT Dan Hoch. Hoch played a lot as a true freshman (reloading…) last year and is the only new starter from the end of last season, replacing NFL draftee Colin Brown. Hoch tweaked a knee in camp but is back for this week but it’s unclear if he’s ready for a full game’s worth of action. He might rotate out a series here and there, not sure. No need to break this OL down any further really. No unit is more critical to the Tigers’ offensive success than a line that can protect the QB and open holes for the running game. That’s boring, cliché and vanilla but it’s absolutely 100% true. Tigers were 10-1 when rushing for over 100 yards last year. OSU, Texas and OU absolutely SHUT THEM DOWN running the ball and that falls on the OL for the most part. Sure RBs miss holes from time to time but my recollection of those games is seeing opposing defenses in our backfield a ton. It’s Football 101 but the team that wins the battle the line of scrimmage generally wins the game. OL did a good job of pass protection a year ago, allowing 15 sacks on the year in 14 games, good for 16th nationally. A similar number this year would be fantastic. The last offensive weapon is the kicker and after Wolfert’s career where every PAT was automatic (185 makes, no misses) and you had confidence in most FG attempts, this year is going to be anything but. Judging by the practice reports I’ve read nothing beyond 30 yards is a sure thing. So kicking any field goal outside of the redzone will be an absolute crapshoot. For the record, Soph Grant Ressell is your starting kicker. Mizzou won’t throw the ball all over the field like they did a year ago but I don’t expect them to line up under center in the power-I and run the ball 45x a game either. This will be a modification of the spread offense they’ve run for the past 4 or so years and probably, at least in the IL game, pared down in its complexity for Gabbert’s benefit. With so much unkown in terms of on-field production at the QB and receiver positions, expect a heavy dose of the RBs against the Illini. Coach Yost (former QB coach who takes over as Offensive Coordinator after former OC Dave Christiansen went to become head coach at Wyoming) will allow Gabbert to get his feet wet and comfortable before unleashing the rocket. (That’s what she said?) And the rocket will be unleashed.

When the Tigers are on D…well, this was a historically bad unit in 2008 which was all the more disappointing because they returned so many starters. No real other way to put it. The 2008 defense, statistically, was pretty garbage, primarily against the pass where they allowed the third most yards/game in the nation (287.2). I must add, however, that there’s something to be made of the fact that the Tigers play in an uber-pass-happy conference and ten (10) Big XII teams were among the bottom 26 nationally in passing yards allowed per game. (Those NOT were Nebraska and Colorado). Nobody passed more frequently than Mizzou’s opponents a season ago (41.6 attempts/game) yet the Tigers were middle-of-the pack in yards/attempt at a shade under 7. Mizzou allowed the 8th most passing TDs in the nation (29), over half of which came on pass plays longer than 20 yards. A lot of the damage against Mizzou’s defense came when opponents were trying to play catch up to get back into games so that has to be factored in. When teams are down by 2 TDs and the defense is playing loose/prevent style, completions and yards (and even TDs) happen. Defensive Coordinator Matt Eberflus has moved on to the NFL (Really? Really.) and former LB coach Dave Steckel takes over. The word on the street is that Steckel has, for lack of a better term, dumbed it down and will be playing a lot more base defense than the exotic (and more often than not, DELAYED) blitz tactics preferred by Eberflus. We shall see. Coach Pinkel has said he has never had a faster defense with the Tigers. Speed is certainly a big part of the success of the great defenses in college football (USC and the SEC come to mind). Mizzou held their own against the run averaging the second fewest yards per carry average in the conference and second fewest rushing TDs. From a personnel standpoint, Sr LB Sean Weatherspoon returns (somewhat surprisingly) to anchor the strong side. Spoon has All-American ability and should compete for the national lead in tackles once again. Uh yeah, he led the nation last year with 155 total tackles, 5th on a per-game basis with 11.07. The guy is an absolute stud and obviously wasn’t thrilled about how last season went towards the end and feels like he has something left to prove. I say prove away, Mr. Spoon. I will have my eyes firmly fixed on #12 Saturday afternoon because he’s going to blow somebody up. Running with Spoon at LB will be Juniors Andrew Gachkar (weak side) and Luke Lambert (middle). Lambert started at weak-side some last year as Brock Christopher anchored the middle. These three form the most solid unit on the defensive side of the football. Expect to see Soph MLB Will Ebner, who is a big-time hitter (assuming he’s recovered from a mild neck strain suffered last week). Also look for Fr Donovan Bonner and RS Fr Zavier Gooden (a converted safety) to get some reps. Although Sean Weatherspoon is the face of the 2009 Missouri Tigers, all the defensive buzz throughout camp has been on the “three-headed monster” at the defensive end position. Departed DE’s Stryker Sulak and Tommy Chavis are replaced with Sr Brian Coulter, Soph Jacquies Smith and RS Fr Aldon Smith. Coulter is in his second year with Mizzou after transferring from JuCo – he and J. Smith combined for 73 tackles (9.5 TFL) and 4 sacks as reserves a season ago. This should be a fairly even rotation to start off with Aldon Smith coming off the bench initially, but expectations are very high for this group. If you must look away from #12, make sure you find #2 (Coulter); #3 (Jacquies) and/or #85 (Aldon). These guys are critical to keeping the pressure on Juice on Saturday. The rest of the D-Line is Sr Jaron Baston returns at one DT spot and Sophomores Terrell Resonno and Dominique Hamilton will both see significant time at the other, replacing Ziggy Hood, the Steelers’ first round draft pick. A season ago, Mizzou was 2nd in the conference in TFL with 7.4 and 5th in sacks. In their two most lopsided defeats (TX and OU) they tallied a total of 4 TFL and one sack. That just doesn’t cut it. Again, the battle at the L.O.S. is where football games are won and lost. Not sexy but very very true. I am of the opinion the secondary got shat on a little too much last year, more than they deserved. I think the scheme of running delayed blitz after delayed blitz was a flawed one and players have indicated that they were confused with their assignments at times. Not to hang it all on Eberflus but part of the job of coaching is to make sure there things like this don’t happen. Sure, they’re college kids and they make mistakes and blow assignments and just flat out get beat sometimes but I think coaches need to make sure their team is on the same page. Jr CB Carl Gettis looks to rebound after a step backwards his sophomore year. He will also start out as the Tiger punt returner replacing some dude who was just all right the last couple of years. Jr CB Kevin Rutland had, by all accounts, a stellar camp. Former DeSmet standouts RS Fr Robert Steeples and Notre Dame transfer Jr Munir Prince along with Soph Trey Hobson and RS Fr Kip Edwards offer some depth, though unproven, at corner. In the Big XII, against those potent aerial attacks, expect to see Mizzou in a lot of nickel coverage, subbing out a linebacker for a CB – it appears Steeples has the inside track on that 3rd CB position. Departed NFL draftee, William Moore is replaced at his strong safety spot by Sr Hardy Ricks. Soph Kenji Jackson returns to the free safety position but is being pushed by Juco transfer Jasper Simmons. Simmons will start out as the kick returner for the Tigers, replacing that same dude who was jut all right the last couple of years. Sr Del Howard is running second team at SS behind Ricks. So what’s the final verdict on the defense? Well, I don’t think it can get much worse. I think you’ll see more consistency in the pass rush for starters, which will help the coverage. I also think you’ll see a lot more discipline overall and less reliance on single-coverage; it seemed like the Mizzou secondary was doing a lot of chasing a season ago. The memories of Illini receivers getting behind the Tiger DBs and certainly Kerry MotherEffing Meier being totally wide open at the end of the Kansas game are two lasting impressions of last season’s defensive effort. I have to think this unit will be better. I know this: they’ll be tested right away by Juice & Co.


So what does this all mean? The first game of the year, especially one against a non “blood-donor” opponent is generally wide open. In this one both teams have lost some personnel. Both teams are breaking in new coordinators. Schemes could prove to be vastly different than a season ago, making any conclusions drawn from 2008 worthless. It is really hard to know what to expect when everything to this point is based on practice reports, news articles and Twitter (if you’re not on Twitter, you should be. And you need to follow Spoon, DWash, Alexander, Kemp and Gabbert for sure. Pinkel and Yost as well – good clean American fun.) In spite of this unpredictability, I will take a stab, because that’s kind of what I do.

I think Mizzou will favor the run more this season (Pinkel has said as much) but don’t expect them to come out hyper-conservative, double tight-end, Gabbert under center with a (gasp!) fullback and tailback in the I-formation. Not going to happen. Mizzou ran the ball the second fewest times per game in the Big 12 and 42% of their plays were runs (sacks count as runs in college…but there were only 15 of those). I am not sure they’ll get to 50/50, but with D-Wash and D-Moore being a strength this year, expect them to shoulder more of the load.

I think Mizzou will let Gabbert show off his talents. I don’t believe they’ll completely handle him with kid gloves. This kid has a freaking rocket arm – they’re not going to dink-and-dunk all game long. He will stretch the field against the Illini and introduce Mizzou and Illinois fans alike to what elite arm strength looks like. I for one can’t wait. Oh by the way – Gabbert can run too. Faster than Chase Daniel and considerably bigger. Not quite Tebow but maybe close.

How I see the game playing out…
I expect IL to come out jacked up as the favorite. I think Missouri’s defense will keep them in this one though completely shutting down the IL offense isn’t likely. Both teams want to pass the ball but tempo is controlled by the ground game and I think Mizzou has the edge there. If the Tiger pass D is as putrid as last year, Mizzou will lose by 2-3 TDs. I just don’t see that happening. Juice will have some good numbers I’d imagine but the Tigers have to put pressure on him and knock him down, get him to have happy feet. For all the hype, he’s only got 7 more career TDs than interceptions. If he tosses two picks again like he did last year, I think the Tigers win. Mizzou has not lost a game in 3 years when winning the turnover battle. Honestly, this game scares me more than it did two weeks ago but not to the extent I’m about to pick against my boys. I feel this will be a very close, entertaining game with the Tigers coming out on top, 33-31.


TIDBITS TO HELP YOU DOMINATE WATERCOOLER CONVERSATION

IL was 1-6 last year when throwing the ball 30+ times.

IL was 4-1 when running it 40+.

IL hasn’t lost a game the last two years when Juice has run for a TD (8-0)

3rd down: Mizzou’s D faced the most 3rd downs (231) and allowed the most conversions (106) in the entire nation. Indicates to me that they held pretty well on 1st and 2nd down but had a tendency to break on 3rd. (Those numbers have to improve.)

Mizzou converted 53% on 3rd down, good for 5th in the nation. They were 2nd in 2007 and 7th in 2006.

Mizzou played the most neutral site games last year (4: IL, KU, OU, Northwestern)
The last time Illinois beat Mizzou in football, Blaine Gabbert was 5

Tick tock...tick tock...

almost game day