ILLINOIS PREVIEW

Illinois
9/5/09

College football season is once again upon us and with that brings my weekly drivel about why Mizzou is the most awesomest team in the world. OK, I’ll try to be at least somewhat objective but welcome to the season, nonetheless. For the third straight year, Mizzou opens with their rivals to the east, the fighting Illini of Illinois.

2008 Game Recap…
Mizzou grabbed an early lead, gave it back briefly in the 2nd quarter, then Maclin returned a 99 yard kickoff return for a score and Mizzou never trailed again. They tacked on 2 TDs late in the first half to build a 31-13 halftime lead. The Tigers kept Illinois at arm’s length the rest of the game, with a last second Juice Williams TD pass closing the final margin to 52-42 in favor of Mizzou. The teams combined for nearly 1,100 total offensive yards (770+ in the air). This was the 4th consecutive “Arch Rivalry” game Mizzou has won over Illinois in the Dome and the Tigers are 15-7 against the Illini all-time.

2009 Illinois Preview…
IL returns a ton of guys with experience and if I’m being honest, this is as good of a chance to beat Mizzou as they’ve had since Brad Smith’s debut in 2002. Up and down their first and second teams it’s juniors and seniors whereas Mizzou is a lot of sophomores and juniors. Mizzou has 7 senior starters, one reserve senior and a senor punter. But first, we’ll look at IL.

When Illinois has the ball…SR QB Juice Williams is a four-year starter who threw for 3,100 yards (to lead the conference) and rushed for over 700, tops on the team. We all remember him firing missiles all over the Mizzou secondary last season. He has a big time arm and plays well outside of the pocket. He’s not afraid to tuck and run but has improved as a passer each year. Jr Eddie McGee is an able back-up who led a valiant effort in the 2007 Arch Rivalry game after Juice got knocked out. Jr WR Arrelious Benn broke 1,000 yards receiving and is an all-conference performer despite the fact that he’s only found the end zone 5 times as a receiver in his first two seasons. He is big, he is fast, he is strong (broke a ton of tackles against Mizzou last year) and Juice absolutely loves to find him. They even have a promotional website together, kind of cute: www.7-to-9.com). Draft Ninja, Mel Kiper Jr has Benn (aka Rejus) as a top 10 pick in the 2010 NFL draft if he comes out, which I imagine he will if he has any kind of respectable season. Florida Gator transfer, Jr WR Jarred Fayson, makes his Illini debut vs the Tigers and most sources think he and Benn make up the most talented WR tandem in the Big 10. Hard for me to disagree with that...but we’re talking about the Big 10, which is far from a prolific passing conference. Sr WR Jeff Cumberland is poised to be a big contributor in the passing game. The 6’5” target missed the Mizzou game a year ago with a foot injury. Expect Juice to look his way near the goalline. One-time CB Chris Duvalt and AJ Jenkins add depth to their receiving corps. Duvalt had 2 TDs against the Tigers last year. Sr TE Michael Hoomanawanui is considered an NFL-type TE and was good for 2+ catches a game a year ago. Illinois was the leading passing team in the Big 10 and I see no reason why they won’t challenge for that distinction once again, given the weapons they have returning. However, as a matter of perspective, their 269.3ypg in the air would’ve landed them at 8th I the Big XII. The Illini have a variety of options at running back that figure to see significant time. Their lead back should be Senior Daniel Dufrene who rushed for 663 yards, yet scored no TDs on the ground. (He was also their 2nd leading receiver in terms of receptions - 30, behind Benn’s 67 - and scored 2TDs that way.) Dufrene dinged up his ankle recently in practice and, in all honesty, he might not be their best RB – I won’t be surprised if he’s not “the guy” as the season progresses. Goal line ground opportunities in 2008 were mainly given to Belleville, IL native (and former Tiger recruit) Soph RB Jason Ford. He banged out 8 touchdowns on just 81 attempts for 294 yards. It appears that Champaign native Soph Mikel Leshoure has made a strong push to unseat Dufrene in camp so expect him to see some touches against the Tigers as well. Word is that true Freshman RB Justin Green has been impressive and will likely play this year, though not necessarily against the Tigers. Troy Pollard is another name to look out for out of the Illini backfield. So it appears they have a couple different options at tailback. New offensive coordinator (Schultz, formerly from TCU) is a fan of the one-back, double-tight, double-wideout set and rumor has it they like the speedy freshman Green as the tailback in that spot. Pay attention to that to see if it turns out to be the case. Illinois returns 3 starters on their offensive line, however two of them are in the midst of position switches (LT Jeff Allen from RT and C Eric Block from LG). Outland Trophy candidate, Sr Jon Asamoah, anchors the line at RG but has missed considerable time during camp with a sinus infection but returned to practice late last week and will be ready for the Mizzou game. Overall they ran the ball more than they passed (54% of the time). The Illini were middle-of-the pack in rushing success, relative to their conference. 5th in rushing yards per game and 6th in yards per carry. Overall, they had the second best total offense per game in the Big 10 (438.8).

When the Illini are on D…Illinois is anchored by Jr LB Martez Wilson who is moving to middle LB after playing OLB last year. Over the last three seasons, Illinois MLBs have led the Big 10 in tackles (J Leman twice and Britt Miller last year). Soph LB Ian Thomas will run alongside Wilson on the strong side. Thomas, they say, is built a little more like a traditional Big 10 linebacker and will push Wilson for the title of leading tackler. Thomas is a first-year starter but they’re expecting a very big season out of him…and Wilson, obviously. Jr Nathan Bussey and Soph Russell Ellington will see time at weakside linebacker. They return a lot of experience, but three new starters, on the defensive line with DE’s Doug Pilcher (Sr), Clay Nurse (Jr) and Antonio James (Sr) and DT’s Jr Josh Brent (returning from suspension after DUI last spring and 30 days in jail), Soph Corey Liuget, Jr Daryle Ballew and Sr Sirod Williams. They’re very high on the D-Line, especially on the interior. Lots of depth there. Illinois led their conference in sacks per game (2.67) but they tallied only 2 in their last 3 games. Despite this, their coaches have preached in camp of the importance in getting to the QB, assumedly in big games. The Illini posted only 1 sack against Mizzou last year, only got 1 in their loss at Penn State and didn’t log any against Ohio State or Northwestern to finish out the year (both losses). In their 5 wins, they averaged 4.2 sacks a game against only 1.57 in losses. This is a critical success factor for the Illini (and probably any) defense. Their returning defensive players totaled 11.5 sacks last year, 36% of their total. They lost a lot of production from their defensive line. In the secondary, big hitting Safety, Jr Donsay Hardeman is returning from a late-season neck injury. He’ll be paired with Jr Garrett Edwards. Their starting cornerbacks are Sr Dere Hicks and Soph Tavon Wilson. Secondary was a huge area of concern for the Illini defensive coaching staff, despite the presence of NFL 1st rounder Vontae Davis, as the team surrendered 64 pass plays of 15+ yards. Couple that with the fact that IL allowed a league-low 200 completions, and you can see why there’s a legit concern over the big play. 32% of completed passes went for 15+ yards. I have no idea how that ranks nationally but seems pretty high. Missouri’s pass defense, largely regarded as being “porous” (to put it kindly) a year ago allowed 373 completions, 85 of which went for 15+ yards for a “big” pass play percentage of 23. This is far from scientific but I found it interesting. Illinois also intercepted only 6 passes a season ago, third lowest in the nation. Six. (really!) Teams only completed 200 passes not because there were tons of incompletions against IL (58.5%, 4th worst in Big 10 – remember, it’s a running conference), it’s because everyone and their brother was running the ball down their throats. They were 3rd worst in their conference, allowing just under 153 yards per game. Obviously this is another area they need to improve upon. Mizzou ran for 226 on the Illini a season ago and passed for 323, the most total yards the Illini gave up by a wide margin (127 yards). Illinois’ defense was just very very average a year ago…and as a Missouri fan, I would have gladly accepted that for the Tiger defense…but that’s a later topic.

The sense I’m getting from doing some homework on Illinois is that they feel very settled with their offensive playmakers and are pretty comfortable with their offensive line, despite the position changes and missed time in camp. I am glad that Mizzou gets to go against this OL in Week 1 vs Week 7 or 8 when they’ve really jelled. I’m not at all sold on them yet, especially against Mizzou’s projected style on D (speed). On the other side of the ball, I see them as cautiously optimistic about their defense. They have great expectations but with a number of new starters, it’s just hard to say. I can draw a lot of parallels between 2009 Illinois and 2008 Missouri – both teams have/had offenses far superior and decorated than their defenses. Both teams are/were coming off a poor defensive year and expecting a rebound. It didn’t happen for the Tigers last year – I hope it doesn’t for IL either…at least for one game.

2009 Mizzou Preview
Is this a rebuilding year or has the Tiger program turned the proverbial corner and begun “reloading”? No question Mizzou’s a lot younger and less experienced than a year ago. You don’t lose 23 players including guys like Maclin, Daniel, Moore, Coffman, Hood, Brown and Sulak and not expect to take a step backward. The question is, how far will that step backward be…if at all? Won’t know that after one game…it’s one of the things that will make this season so exciting.

When Mizzou has the ball…Going into 2006, count me among the many who were skeptical about Chase Daniel taking over for Brad Smith at QB. I knew he had talent but I thought he was a little cavalier and reckless on the field and would turn out to be more the spunky, plucky, scrappy type than the stud he was his 3 years as starter. If you’ll allow me a baseball comparison, I pegged him as more David Eckstein than, well, NOT David Eckstein. Say what you will about the faux-hawk, chinstrap beard and backwards cap, the guy was amazing running Mizzou’s offense. But the Chase Daniel era is over now and here we are breaking in another QB. I read somewhere that Soph QB Blaine Gabbert is the first 5-star player that will play a game for Mizzou (Chase was 3-star). So he’s coming in as highly-heralded as anybody in the history of the program. Sure sounds like reloading to me. Yes it’s a lot of pressure for a kid to live up to but he has all the tools, he’s had a year in the system and he’s been able to learn alongside the greatest passer in Missouri football history. Reports out of camp were very good from a variety of media covering the Tigers regarding Gabbert. He didn’t throw a pick during any of the three scrimmages and has developed a good chemistry with the receivers. Gabbert’s time is now. As he goes, so go the Tigers this year. The depth is not there at QB this year like it was in the past when Daniel had Chase Patton waiting in the wings. Gabbert has not taken a real meaningful snap in college to this point but then again nobody else on the roster has at the QB position. If Gabbert (who had ankle and shoulder issues in high school) goes down, I’m afraid the season will follow. For the record, former walk-on Jr Jimmy Costello is the official backup and after the dismissal of Blaine Dalton last week, true Fr Austin Glaser is QB3. Costello separated himself as the #2 early in camp but if either of these guys see the field, something went wrong or we blew Illinois out and I really don’t see the latter happening on Saturday. Not a lot of stats to throw out here with the QBs, so we’ll move on to one of the real strong points of the Tiger offensive attack this year…I’d like to introduce to you the best backfield tandem in the Pinkel era: Jr RB Derrick Washington and Soph RB De’Vion Moore. D-Wash was a beast for Mizzou last year despite playing with a banged up knee for the better part of the year (177 carries, 1,036 yards – 5.85ypc – 17 TD). His 74ypg was good for 4th in conference (all of whom are returning by the way). D-Wash was a threat in the passing game as well, racking up 277 yards on 29 catches and a couple of TDs. D-Moore averaged 5.6ypc on his 41 carries (1 TD) a year ago, better numbers than Derrick put up his first year. These two were both in the 2007 recruiting class (Moore took a redshirt in ’07) and I think this could be one of the more formidable 1-2 RB combinations in the conference over the next two seasons. OU’s Murray/ Brown clearly the class of the Big 12 at this point, then maybe OSU’s Hunter/Tolston. If the Tigers get that kind of production out of their top 2 backs, that is a very good sign when working in a new QB. Word is that the Tiger coaching staff is not looking at Moore as Washington’s “backup”, more like he’s got two #1 running backs at his disposal. I am looking for big things out of “Double D” (yes, that is a JGD original) – something in the neighborhood of 1,800 yards and 22-25 scores combined for these two would be a pretty solid year. Running 3rd string is true Fr Kendial Lawrence from Rockwall, TX. Kid ran for 4,400+ yards and scored 64 TDs his final two years of high school, averaging 9+ a carry. This guy is going to be good too, but admittedly unproven but he is not red-shirting and will likely see action vs Illinois. Obviously D-Wash is the top returning offensive producer for this team and a key cog to the success of this team. I think the staff feels more comfortable with some of the other guys at RB than a season ago which should help keep him fresh down the stretch. Not a knock at Jimmy Jackson or last season’s version of De’Vion Moore, but everything I’ve seen points to the backfield being a major strength for this team. It’s starting to look like this is another “reloading” position for the Tigers. At the WR position, the 2009 Tigers have a lot of players with potential to be great but not a lot of proven on-field production. Question marks are all over the place. Can Sr WR Jared Perry take another step forward for his final year and become a key part of the offense? Who is going to be Gabbert’s go-to guy when he needs a critical 1st down? Can Sr WR Danario Alexander blossom into a big-time playmaker in this conference? Maybe more importantly, can he stay on the field? Injuries have been a huge issue for Danario during his time as a Tiger. When healthy, he’s an absolute gamebreaker and possibly an all-conference receiver. He has an NFL, athletic body that the Kipers of the world will be drooling over should he have a big year. He’s not going to put up J-Mac numbers but I’m looking for something in the neighborhood of 55-60 catches and 800+ yards with double-digit touchdowns. Soph WR Wes Kemp moves into a starting position this year after having a great camp. Sounds to me like he’s a more athletic version of departed former walk-on Tommy Saunders in that he won’t blow you away with any one attribute (speed, hands, jumping ability, strength) but he is solid all the way around. I really don’t know what to expect out of him and on some level I’m bummed that the Tigers burned his redshirt last year so he could catch exactly one ball for 15 yards in a lopsided win over SEMO but that’s neither here nor there. After those three guys, any of a number of receivers could see the field vs IL and most likely will play at some point this year. For sure, Soph TE Andrew Jones and Soph WR Jerrell Jackson will get plenty of looks in this offense and they return with the most on-field production: 29 catches for 244 yards between the two of them. Beyond that, virtually nothing is known beyond the practice reports from camp. True Fr WR L’Damian Washington has looked very good but is not expected to play vs IL and might redshirt. Soph WR Rolandis Woodland has tremendous raw talent but needs more polish. He should get some snaps. Soph WR Brandon Gereau and True Fr WR TJ Moe are working their way back from injuries this summer to possibly be in the mix. Names to also watch out for are RS Fr Gahn McGaffie, True Fr WR Jaleel Clark, Soph TE Michael Egnew and Soph WR Beau Brinkley. The bottom line with the receivers (TEs included) is that Mizzou will need somebody unexpected to step up big this year. I think you know what you’re going to get with Perry and probably Alexander as well, considering they have 3 years experience each. Beyond that is big fat wild card. Mizzou lost 272 receptions for 3,164 yards and 30 TDs off of the 2008 squad with the departure of Maclin, Coffman and Saunders (Jackson and Goldsmith as well). Those are some MONSTER shoes to fill. Who’s it gonna be? The starting offensive line, from left to right, will be LT Elvis Fisher, LG Austin Wuebbels, C Tim Barnes, RG Kurtis Gregory (lone Sr starter) and RT Dan Hoch. Hoch played a lot as a true freshman (reloading…) last year and is the only new starter from the end of last season, replacing NFL draftee Colin Brown. Hoch tweaked a knee in camp but is back for this week but it’s unclear if he’s ready for a full game’s worth of action. He might rotate out a series here and there, not sure. No need to break this OL down any further really. No unit is more critical to the Tigers’ offensive success than a line that can protect the QB and open holes for the running game. That’s boring, cliché and vanilla but it’s absolutely 100% true. Tigers were 10-1 when rushing for over 100 yards last year. OSU, Texas and OU absolutely SHUT THEM DOWN running the ball and that falls on the OL for the most part. Sure RBs miss holes from time to time but my recollection of those games is seeing opposing defenses in our backfield a ton. It’s Football 101 but the team that wins the battle the line of scrimmage generally wins the game. OL did a good job of pass protection a year ago, allowing 15 sacks on the year in 14 games, good for 16th nationally. A similar number this year would be fantastic. The last offensive weapon is the kicker and after Wolfert’s career where every PAT was automatic (185 makes, no misses) and you had confidence in most FG attempts, this year is going to be anything but. Judging by the practice reports I’ve read nothing beyond 30 yards is a sure thing. So kicking any field goal outside of the redzone will be an absolute crapshoot. For the record, Soph Grant Ressell is your starting kicker. Mizzou won’t throw the ball all over the field like they did a year ago but I don’t expect them to line up under center in the power-I and run the ball 45x a game either. This will be a modification of the spread offense they’ve run for the past 4 or so years and probably, at least in the IL game, pared down in its complexity for Gabbert’s benefit. With so much unkown in terms of on-field production at the QB and receiver positions, expect a heavy dose of the RBs against the Illini. Coach Yost (former QB coach who takes over as Offensive Coordinator after former OC Dave Christiansen went to become head coach at Wyoming) will allow Gabbert to get his feet wet and comfortable before unleashing the rocket. (That’s what she said?) And the rocket will be unleashed.

When the Tigers are on D…well, this was a historically bad unit in 2008 which was all the more disappointing because they returned so many starters. No real other way to put it. The 2008 defense, statistically, was pretty garbage, primarily against the pass where they allowed the third most yards/game in the nation (287.2). I must add, however, that there’s something to be made of the fact that the Tigers play in an uber-pass-happy conference and ten (10) Big XII teams were among the bottom 26 nationally in passing yards allowed per game. (Those NOT were Nebraska and Colorado). Nobody passed more frequently than Mizzou’s opponents a season ago (41.6 attempts/game) yet the Tigers were middle-of-the pack in yards/attempt at a shade under 7. Mizzou allowed the 8th most passing TDs in the nation (29), over half of which came on pass plays longer than 20 yards. A lot of the damage against Mizzou’s defense came when opponents were trying to play catch up to get back into games so that has to be factored in. When teams are down by 2 TDs and the defense is playing loose/prevent style, completions and yards (and even TDs) happen. Defensive Coordinator Matt Eberflus has moved on to the NFL (Really? Really.) and former LB coach Dave Steckel takes over. The word on the street is that Steckel has, for lack of a better term, dumbed it down and will be playing a lot more base defense than the exotic (and more often than not, DELAYED) blitz tactics preferred by Eberflus. We shall see. Coach Pinkel has said he has never had a faster defense with the Tigers. Speed is certainly a big part of the success of the great defenses in college football (USC and the SEC come to mind). Mizzou held their own against the run averaging the second fewest yards per carry average in the conference and second fewest rushing TDs. From a personnel standpoint, Sr LB Sean Weatherspoon returns (somewhat surprisingly) to anchor the strong side. Spoon has All-American ability and should compete for the national lead in tackles once again. Uh yeah, he led the nation last year with 155 total tackles, 5th on a per-game basis with 11.07. The guy is an absolute stud and obviously wasn’t thrilled about how last season went towards the end and feels like he has something left to prove. I say prove away, Mr. Spoon. I will have my eyes firmly fixed on #12 Saturday afternoon because he’s going to blow somebody up. Running with Spoon at LB will be Juniors Andrew Gachkar (weak side) and Luke Lambert (middle). Lambert started at weak-side some last year as Brock Christopher anchored the middle. These three form the most solid unit on the defensive side of the football. Expect to see Soph MLB Will Ebner, who is a big-time hitter (assuming he’s recovered from a mild neck strain suffered last week). Also look for Fr Donovan Bonner and RS Fr Zavier Gooden (a converted safety) to get some reps. Although Sean Weatherspoon is the face of the 2009 Missouri Tigers, all the defensive buzz throughout camp has been on the “three-headed monster” at the defensive end position. Departed DE’s Stryker Sulak and Tommy Chavis are replaced with Sr Brian Coulter, Soph Jacquies Smith and RS Fr Aldon Smith. Coulter is in his second year with Mizzou after transferring from JuCo – he and J. Smith combined for 73 tackles (9.5 TFL) and 4 sacks as reserves a season ago. This should be a fairly even rotation to start off with Aldon Smith coming off the bench initially, but expectations are very high for this group. If you must look away from #12, make sure you find #2 (Coulter); #3 (Jacquies) and/or #85 (Aldon). These guys are critical to keeping the pressure on Juice on Saturday. The rest of the D-Line is Sr Jaron Baston returns at one DT spot and Sophomores Terrell Resonno and Dominique Hamilton will both see significant time at the other, replacing Ziggy Hood, the Steelers’ first round draft pick. A season ago, Mizzou was 2nd in the conference in TFL with 7.4 and 5th in sacks. In their two most lopsided defeats (TX and OU) they tallied a total of 4 TFL and one sack. That just doesn’t cut it. Again, the battle at the L.O.S. is where football games are won and lost. Not sexy but very very true. I am of the opinion the secondary got shat on a little too much last year, more than they deserved. I think the scheme of running delayed blitz after delayed blitz was a flawed one and players have indicated that they were confused with their assignments at times. Not to hang it all on Eberflus but part of the job of coaching is to make sure there things like this don’t happen. Sure, they’re college kids and they make mistakes and blow assignments and just flat out get beat sometimes but I think coaches need to make sure their team is on the same page. Jr CB Carl Gettis looks to rebound after a step backwards his sophomore year. He will also start out as the Tiger punt returner replacing some dude who was just all right the last couple of years. Jr CB Kevin Rutland had, by all accounts, a stellar camp. Former DeSmet standouts RS Fr Robert Steeples and Notre Dame transfer Jr Munir Prince along with Soph Trey Hobson and RS Fr Kip Edwards offer some depth, though unproven, at corner. In the Big XII, against those potent aerial attacks, expect to see Mizzou in a lot of nickel coverage, subbing out a linebacker for a CB – it appears Steeples has the inside track on that 3rd CB position. Departed NFL draftee, William Moore is replaced at his strong safety spot by Sr Hardy Ricks. Soph Kenji Jackson returns to the free safety position but is being pushed by Juco transfer Jasper Simmons. Simmons will start out as the kick returner for the Tigers, replacing that same dude who was jut all right the last couple of years. Sr Del Howard is running second team at SS behind Ricks. So what’s the final verdict on the defense? Well, I don’t think it can get much worse. I think you’ll see more consistency in the pass rush for starters, which will help the coverage. I also think you’ll see a lot more discipline overall and less reliance on single-coverage; it seemed like the Mizzou secondary was doing a lot of chasing a season ago. The memories of Illini receivers getting behind the Tiger DBs and certainly Kerry MotherEffing Meier being totally wide open at the end of the Kansas game are two lasting impressions of last season’s defensive effort. I have to think this unit will be better. I know this: they’ll be tested right away by Juice & Co.


So what does this all mean? The first game of the year, especially one against a non “blood-donor” opponent is generally wide open. In this one both teams have lost some personnel. Both teams are breaking in new coordinators. Schemes could prove to be vastly different than a season ago, making any conclusions drawn from 2008 worthless. It is really hard to know what to expect when everything to this point is based on practice reports, news articles and Twitter (if you’re not on Twitter, you should be. And you need to follow Spoon, DWash, Alexander, Kemp and Gabbert for sure. Pinkel and Yost as well – good clean American fun.) In spite of this unpredictability, I will take a stab, because that’s kind of what I do.

I think Mizzou will favor the run more this season (Pinkel has said as much) but don’t expect them to come out hyper-conservative, double tight-end, Gabbert under center with a (gasp!) fullback and tailback in the I-formation. Not going to happen. Mizzou ran the ball the second fewest times per game in the Big 12 and 42% of their plays were runs (sacks count as runs in college…but there were only 15 of those). I am not sure they’ll get to 50/50, but with D-Wash and D-Moore being a strength this year, expect them to shoulder more of the load.

I think Mizzou will let Gabbert show off his talents. I don’t believe they’ll completely handle him with kid gloves. This kid has a freaking rocket arm – they’re not going to dink-and-dunk all game long. He will stretch the field against the Illini and introduce Mizzou and Illinois fans alike to what elite arm strength looks like. I for one can’t wait. Oh by the way – Gabbert can run too. Faster than Chase Daniel and considerably bigger. Not quite Tebow but maybe close.

How I see the game playing out…
I expect IL to come out jacked up as the favorite. I think Missouri’s defense will keep them in this one though completely shutting down the IL offense isn’t likely. Both teams want to pass the ball but tempo is controlled by the ground game and I think Mizzou has the edge there. If the Tiger pass D is as putrid as last year, Mizzou will lose by 2-3 TDs. I just don’t see that happening. Juice will have some good numbers I’d imagine but the Tigers have to put pressure on him and knock him down, get him to have happy feet. For all the hype, he’s only got 7 more career TDs than interceptions. If he tosses two picks again like he did last year, I think the Tigers win. Mizzou has not lost a game in 3 years when winning the turnover battle. Honestly, this game scares me more than it did two weeks ago but not to the extent I’m about to pick against my boys. I feel this will be a very close, entertaining game with the Tigers coming out on top, 33-31.


TIDBITS TO HELP YOU DOMINATE WATERCOOLER CONVERSATION

IL was 1-6 last year when throwing the ball 30+ times.

IL was 4-1 when running it 40+.

IL hasn’t lost a game the last two years when Juice has run for a TD (8-0)

3rd down: Mizzou’s D faced the most 3rd downs (231) and allowed the most conversions (106) in the entire nation. Indicates to me that they held pretty well on 1st and 2nd down but had a tendency to break on 3rd. (Those numbers have to improve.)

Mizzou converted 53% on 3rd down, good for 5th in the nation. They were 2nd in 2007 and 7th in 2006.

Mizzou played the most neutral site games last year (4: IL, KU, OU, Northwestern)
The last time Illinois beat Mizzou in football, Blaine Gabbert was 5