Sunday, September 13, 2009

A win is a win is a win...

It was ugly but I'll take an ugly win over a pretty loss, whatever that means. In college football, unlike the NFL, style points DO count in the eyes of AP voters. You know what doesn't count though? Strength of schedule...no such thing in CFB. But that is an entirely different conversation. Regardless, the Tigers dropped out of the Top 25 less than 5 days after making their debut. Through my Busch Light-induced semi-haze, here's what I think I saw going on last night in Columbia, aka God's country...

- My man-crush on Boy Wonder Gabbert isn't dissipating but I noticed AGAIN that he's locking on his primary receiver almost exclusively. I have no idea how simple they're trying to keep things for Blaine but if you stare down your receiver from snap to throw every single time, bad things will happen. He made some really ill-advised throws into traffic last night when there were receivers wide-open elsewhere. He's not even giving the "I'm consciously looking the other way but I'm 100% positive I'm still going to the primary" look. Locking on the receivers can work fine at Clydesdale Park (represent!) for Saturday morning pickup games but not so much in college football. Again, I don't know what he saw or what his progressions were, this is just my view from 120 miles away. I rock at armchair QB.

- One more on Gabbert...he seems to not have a very good sense of the rush. I think he feels that it's coming quicker than it really is. Numerous times vs BGSU he got happy feet and rolled out when he could've stepped UP and found somebody downfield. The tackles were forcing the rushers outside and eventually behind him so moving laterally still put him at risk of being hit from behind. I know he can run and that's a great weapon to have but he had more time to step up and throw. Perhaps this is related to my first point - he locks on, that guy is blanketed, roll out and run. I don't know. Interested to see how this plays out in the coming weeks.

- Ground game looked pretty good. Nice to see D-Wash get some rhythm and I think K-Law is going to be a very exciting player. He looked really fast to me. Still wish some of the rushing plays wouldn't take so long to develop and in particular the way K-Law was receiving the zone-read handoffs, he was actually running backward when he got the ball so he had to turn nearly 90 degrees to attack the edge. Looked funny - probably some small footwork thing.

- For the second week in a row, the Tigers opted to use their front 4 on their own to apply pressure on the QB instead of sending blitzers. Worked pretty great vs IL, not as well vs BGSU. The 2 sacks were nice (total loss of 23 yards) but Sheehan is a more accurate passer than Juice and not as prone to tuck and run - he (Sheehan) was able to stay back there and fire short completions...at least for much of the first 3 quarters. Completely different story in 4th Q.

- There were many points in the game that I started thinking, boy this defense is sure starting to look like last year all of the sudden and I can't quite put my finger on it...combo of lack of identifiable pressure on Sheehan, open receivers and missed tackles.

- There were many points in the game that I started thinking, boy this QB is a true sophomore starting his first home game after a scintillating debut. I'm sure he was amped up, trying to do too much. Still, that arm-strength is a thing of absolute beauty.

- 25% conversion rate on 3rd down isn't going to cut it. Through 2 games, the Tigers are 13 of 33 (39%) in coverting 3rd downs. When they've chosen to run the ball on 3rd down, they're 8 for 12 (75%). When trying to pass, the conversion rate is 5 of 21 (24%). Sure this is all predicated on distance to gain the first down but I'm recalling numerous predictable WR bubble screens on 3rd and intermediate (4-9 yards to go) and in those down-and-distance situations our (my) hero has completed 3 of 7 for a whopping ONE TOTAL YARD and nary a first down conversion. Same down-and-distance, the Tigers have RUN the ball thrice for nary a first down conversion (10 total yards). That's 10 chances and not a single conversion on 3rd and 4-9 yards to go. What the hell is it about 3rd and intermediate??? Methinks Los Tigres ought identify some go-to 3rd and "4-9" plays.

- Hard to believe the Tigers won a game in which they lost the turnover battle 2-0? Not really. Since 2006, the Tigers are 7-8 overall when losing the turnover battle and 4-4 when losing it by 2. Oh, and Mizzou has won all 18 games played since 2006 when winning turnover margin. Now I understand why this was a point of emphasis for the coaching staff in pre-season. Turnover margin went from +13 in 2007 to -4 last season.

- This was a game that the Tigers of 5-6 years ago probably loses. I think the entire attitude and expectations of and for the program has taken a dramatic and noticeable turn for the better since then and that was evident watching the nearly 70,000 fans scream their heads off on 3rd downs and not file out to their tailgates for a refill when the Tigers were down early. Seriously, some of the early Pinkel teams would've folded and chalked the game up as "not our night" and taken the "L". This complete attitude/expectation adjustment is a bigger factor than many realize I think. I honestly am ALMOST completely over waiting for the proverbial "other shoe" to drop with this team and program. When you've seen 5th downs, kicked balls and phantom holding calls cost your team victories, you're conditioned to expect the worst to happen to you at the worst possible effing time.

That's about all...Furman University comes to Columbia on Saturday. Without looking, who can give me their mascot/nickname?

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