NEVADA PREVIEW

Wow. Big game. Primetime. ESPN. Only show in town. Nevada has sputtered to an 0-2 start…finally back in Reno for their first home game. 30-some thousand screaming Wolf Pack fans decked out in white. Mizzou has to travel halfway across the country. Sounds like a recipe for an upset…if this were 2004. But it’s not 2004 (and this is not Troy). This Tiger program has grown leaps and bounds under coach Pinkel since those days. They will not peek past Nevada to the next kind-of big rivalry game in primetime on their schedule, who shall go nameless at this point. Expect them to be focused and ready to handle the task at hand. On paper, this is a pretty one-sided looking matchup, given the early season results, but we’ll take closer look.

When Nevada has the football
Jr QB Colin Kaepernick directs the Wolf Pack offense. He is the reigning WAC offensive Player of the Year and was the preseason pick this year for the same honor. In 2008 Kaepernick threw for 2,849 yards and 22 TDs (7 INT) and rushed for 1,130 and another 17 scores. He’s off to a much slower start in 2009, throwing for 400 yards and 1 TD (4 picks) while rushing for only 63 yards through two games. On the bright side, his completion pct has risen from 54% to 61%, but he seems to be finding guys in the wrong color jersey an awful lot. Last season, Missouri held Kaepernick to only 223 yards of total offense which was his 2nd lowest output on the year. As he goes, so go the Wolf Pack…the magic number for him is 7 yards per play. Since 2008, Nevada has lost every game when Kaepernick’s averaged under 7 yards per play on his aggregate pass and rush attempts. They’re undefeated when he hits 7+ yards a play (7-0). Coming into last year’s game in Columbia, Nevada was dealt a devastating blow with the loss of RB Luke Lippincott to a season-ending ACL tear the previous week. Lippincott’s absence opened the door for RB Via Taua who went on to rush for over 1,500 yards and 15 TDs. Both are back this year with Taua (Jr) as the feature back and Lippincott (6th year Sr) getting time at RB, WR and H-Back/TE. Taua has rushed 32 times for 209 yards and 2 TDs (6.53ypc). He’s also caught 5 balls for 42 yards out of the backfield. Lippincott didn’t touch the ball in the 35-0 loss at Notre Dame but logged 9 carries for 52 yards (5.78ypc) last week vs Colorado State. Lippincott hasn’t caught a pass yet on the year. Fr WR Brandon Wimberly is finally getting his shot to play after grayshirting in 2007 and redshirting last year. He caught 2 passes against ND and then had a big game last week vs CSU, catching 7 balls for 104 yards and a late score. Soph WR Tray Session leads the team in receptions with 12 after getting only 1 catch as a freshman last year. WR Chris Wellington is the leading returning receiver from a season ago but only has 6 catches thus far in 2009. Wimberly and Session are 6’3” and have wiry builds while Wellington is a couple inches shorter and sturdier. Jr TE Virgil Green has caught 6 balls on the year after hauling in only 13 a year ago as the starter. His strength is in using his 6’4”, 240lb frame to block. The offensive line has two tackles and a guard that have played together for the better part of two seasons. Their center is a senior starting for the first time and the other guard is a redshirt freshman who made his college debut in their season opener.

Nevada is a team that wants to run the football. They were 3rd in the nation running the ball last year with nearly 280 yards per game and a robust 6.1 ypc. They have 3 players on their roster who have 1,000 yard rushing seasons under their belt – I don’t think another team in America has ever been able to say that. But unfortunately for the 2009 Wolf Pack, they have been playing from behind too much to lean on the run as much as they’d like. In 2009 they’re down to 161 yards per game and 5.4 ypc. A season ago they ran the ball nearly 60% of the time. This year, that ratio is down to less than half at 48%. When forced to throw, bad things tend to happen, as evidenced by Kaepernick’s 4 picks in 2 games. In fact, ball security has been a huge issue for the Wolf Pack as they’ve turned the ball over 8 times thus far (against zero takeaways). Clearly if Mizzou can corral the Wolf Pack ground game, they should have great success on defense. The Tigers are allowing 105.7 rushing yards per game and 3.2 ypc… improvements over their numbers a season ago. Two things though – it’s still early and rush D wasn’t the issue in 2008. To draw a comparison to an earlier opponent of the Tigers, from a strategic standpoint…Illinois came in wanting to establish a running game vs Mizzou but wasn’t able to do it. My point is that both teams know that Nevada’s strength is in running the ball and the 2009 Tigers have already proven capable of shutting down another run-oriented team. If they force Kaepernick to throw a lot, they will win fairly handily I would guess. On first down the Wolf Pack run the ball 60% of the time but are only averaging 5ypc, forcing them into more passing situations on subsequent downs. For comparison, the 2008 Nevada squad rushed for nearly 7 ypc on 1st down. On 2nd down they have become a 60% pass team which is somewhat befuddling because on their 2nd down rush attempts they’re still ripping off 5ypc. So logic dictates that, on average, if they run the ball two times, they’ll get a first down. I think this might be a strategic flaw in their play-calling. Given the lack of success in the passing game thus far, I would be running the ball until Missouri, or anybody, proved they could stop me. Even down a few scores, don’t abandon what you do best. From Missouri’s defensive perspective, I would cram the box and make Kaepernick throw it. It’s also worth mentioning that Nevada is 115th in the nation in scoring offense at 10 points per game.

When Nevada is on defense
Their strength on D is in their two Jr DE’s: Kevin Basped and Dontay Moch. They combined for 21.5 sacks in 2008 and Nevada is the only team to return two players with double-digit sacks from last year. Moch already has 3 TFL on the young season and 1 QB hurry. Sr MLB Mike Bethea is the team leader with 18 tackles. He’s flanked on the strong side by Soph James-Michael Johnson and on the weak side by Soph Brandon Marshall. They have 3 seniors in their secondary including S Jonathon Amaya who is 2nd on the team with 16 tackles. This has not been an impressive defense so far this year. And if you cringe at the memories of the 2008 Tiger pass D, consider the Wolf Pack were dead last in the nation in passing yards allowed with almost 312 per game. Not much improvement this year as they have the worst pass efficiency defense in the country. Considering Mizzou has the 13th best pass efficiency ranking and the highest rated passer in a conference that tends to air it out and it’s clear that this mismatch cannot bode well for Nevada. They’ve allowed 7.2 yards per play this season, 6th worst in the nation. Most of that damage has been done through the air as Nevada’s opponents are averaging 12.7 yards per pass attempt…dead last in the country. Think about that for a second. That is a staggering number. I expect it to come down as the year progresses but that just blows my mind. They’re also not stopping the run particularly well, allowing nearly 180 ypg (99th in nation) on the ground and 4.4ypc (92nd - both numbers in bottom quartile). Nevada’s Total Defense of 440ypg and 35pts allowed are bottom 15 in the nation. Sure, Notre Dame is one of the better offensive teams around but Colorado State is nothing special and they still scored 5 TDs on the Wolf Pack. Obviously the 5 turnovers had something to do with this and I expect Nevada to play better at home but let’s not confuse this D with the 1985 Bears. Some more numbers for you…Nevada is bottom 20 nationally in 3rd down defense allowing a conversion rate 46%. Opposing QBs are completing nearly 85% of their pass attempts against Nevada on 3rd down. Couple this with Nevada’s 1.2 ypc allowed on 3rd down and it’s clear to me that Mizzou should be thinking pass, pass and more pass this Friday Night on 3rd down. 25% of completions against Nevada’s defense have gone for 25+ yards. That is ridiculous. My point with all this drivel is this: There will be ample opportunities for Mizzou to exploit this defense both on the ground and in the air. Sure the Wolf Pack could throw some exotic looks in there, like the Cover 4 that Bowling Green tried that kind of threw Gabbert for a loop early on, but I trust the coaches will pick up on such things and make the appropriate adjustments in a similar fashion.

This is another game in which Mizzou’s talent should win out. Their offensive strength plays against Nevada’s biggest defensive weakness and there is not a counter matchup to offset that. That Nevada running game will eventually bust out this season, that I’m sure of. If they run for 160-180 yards this week I will not be that surprised. I’m still not sure that’s enough to beat Mizzou because they haven’t shown they can put points on the board to this point. They are scoreless in the first half this year and if Mizzou can get out to a 10-0, 14-0, 17-0 type start, this one could turn ugly. For Nevada to win, they have to run the ball a ton, try to keep Mizzou’s D on the field for 10-12 play drives and chew clock. We all know the explosiveness of the Tiger offense. They’re not built to win the time of possession game, but they are improving from last year’s average of 25:49 (2nd worst in the nation). Nevada will line up in that pistol formation (short shotgun set for Kaepernick, Taua/Lippincott set back about 4 yards further – Mizzou ran this last year) and try to run different things out of that. Disciplined assignment football is the key this week on D. One area of concern I have for Mizzou is the penalties. They had more penalty yards vs Furman (75) than they’ve had since 2007. They’re averaging 6 penalties a game and 55 yards in penalties – those figures need to improve.

The only other thing that really concerns me in this contest is the intangibles and those can play out huge in college football. This is the Wolf Pack’s first home game and it is nationally televised on ESPN. It’s a fan “white-out”. They’re playing a team that absolutely wiped the floor with them a year ago. They are winless on the year and the pre-season WAC #2 team is being labeled as a huge early disappointment. Do not sleep on this team. They have talent and experience and a good coach. They will turn it around this year and be fine in their conference. As previously stated, this is the kind of game that, 4-5 years ago, would’ve made me uncomfortable all week but no more. This Tiger team seems prepared to play every week and until they show otherwise, I’m going to assume they’ll be ready to handle their business in Reno Friday night. I’m calling this one for Missouri, 41 – 20.

TIDBITS TO HELP YOU DOMINATE WATERCOOLER CONVERSATION

Nevada’s opponents have yet to attempt a field goal this year…because they’re 3 for 3 on scoring TDs in the red zone.

Nevada Fr RB Mike Ball is the WACs leading KO returner with a 32.8 yard average

Mizzou punter Jake Harry holds the 10th highest average in the nation at 45.1 yards.

JGD mancrush Blaine Gabbert leading the conference in passer rating…a stat that I will never fully understand how to calculate (anybody else feel like it’s kind of just made up?)

BREAKING NEWS: there were no “West Side Story” style brawls this week on campus involving Mizzou Football players vs Mizzou Basketball players. Just to clear the air on that. Might check Lawrence, KS for their report. Can't we all just get along?